Creating the Situation Toward Belligerence

By Erick San Juan

After four SONAs (State of the Nation Address), where is the Philippines going?

Many pundits believe that President BS Aquino III has lost credibility, basically on what had happened in the Bureau of Customs (BOC). Thick-faced officials, not only at BOC but also in the president’s loop have been pulling the present leadership down. And what made matters worse is that PNoy himself seems ‘blind and deaf’ to see this. Or the people in his innermost circle are the ones creating the problems for PNoy? Still two SONAs to go, Mr. President and I believe that if you will listen to more credible and honest people, you can still make the necessary genuine changes towards your ‘matuwid na daan’.

Sadly, as the Pandora’s Box is wide – opened on the different anomalies of people in the government (elected and appointed), hostilities in so many fronts are brewing fast-paced, if not handled with utmost caution, this country will be on the road to balkanization.

Take for example the brewing war in the south, as cited at the Manila Times online – “Whether or not there is a final peace agreement between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), war could break out in Mindanao because of wrangling among large armed groups, including the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). Ustadz Pendi Colano, chairman of the Central Mindanao’s MNLF sub-wing Selatan State Revolutionary Committee said, his group will not relinquish their territories in Central Mindanao composed of at least seven municipalities even if the government and the MILF sign a peace agreement.

On the other hand, Colano said the MILF has been massing forces, even recruiting young boys aged 14 to 16, to prepare for a massive strike in case the talks collapse.

‘Either way, the government has no other choice but to prepare for hostilities, because the MNLF considers the Framework Agreement as a “tool for war” and not a solution to the Mindanao conflict,’ he said.

This is a very alarming warning, considering the oppositions coming from different sectors when the so-called initial stage of the Peace Agreement was symbolically signed nine months ago, and yet it was pushed through. And as they say, the Misuari problem will always haunt them.

“Still, a segment of the Moro or Muslim Filipino population still holds him in high esteem. When he warns of renewed conflict, it is not impossible to believe that it could happen. The MILF may be a more potent force today, and the MNLF may be a shadow of its former self, but it does not take too many followers of one leader to cause major headaches for both the government and the new authority that is almost certain to be headed by MILF. But the MNLF has stated that they will not “relinquish” any of the territory that they claim as theirs by virtue of the Tripoli Agreement.” (Source: Manila Times online 7/28/13)

And on top of this ‘Misuari problem’, the government should also be wary with the heirs of Kiram that was also overlooked when they signed the peace agreement. They, too have a say on the matter at hand. Remember my warning? Forewarned is forearmed, my friend… Be wary to these signs that may lead to more belligerence in the south.

So, what will happen after the four SONAs? I can still see no clear policies both domestic and especially on foreign policies. It’s like a knee-jerk reaction every time a problem occurs. And the present administration will be fighting so many fronts if it will not address the problems before it snowballed to a real shooting war. If this happens (God forbid) this country will soon be balkanized as I predicted long time ago. And this is just our internal predicament. What about the crisis with our neighbor – China and the continuing intrusion of Uncle Sam through its troops gradually taking over our military through its former military bases. Our leaders are perceived to be looking for more troubles because after three years, they are still in the trial and error mode.

Wake up before its too late!!!