By Nirmal Ghosh, The Straits Times/ANN, Hua Hin, Thailand
Jakarta Post
Jakarta Post
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) foreign ministers have agreed “to speak with one voice” on territorial disputes in the South China Sea, and are looking for an “early conclusion” to negotiations with China over a binding code of conduct for the competing claims.
Tension in the South China Sea, one of the world’s most important waterways, has surged in recent years as a resource-hungry China asserts its vast claims over the area rich in oil and gas deposits much more forcefully.
Four Asean states, including Vietnam and the Philippines, have overlapping claims with China.
“Asean must speak with one voice. When we say one voice, it does not mean one voice against anyone, it means… unity in Asean,” senior Thai Foreign Ministry official Sihasak Phuangketkeow told reporters after an Asean Foreign Ministers’ retreat yesterday morning.
He said the aim of the code of conduct is to “enhance mutual trust and confidence, and prevent untoward incidents from occurring”. Indonesia has proposed setting up a hotline between China and Asean states.
China has agreed to hold talks with Asean next month on the proposed code of conduct.
But wary of concessions that might weaken its territorial claims, Beijing has insisted it is in no rush to sign such a code.
Meanwhile, officials from Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore held a trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Asean retreat to discuss the haze problem.
They renewed their commitment to combating the haze, but the issue of access to official land concession maps continued to be a sticking point.
The maps, when used with satellite technology, are seen as crucial in efforts to pinpoint the culprits behind haze-causing forest fires in Sumatra.
Indonesia and Malaysia have cited legal concerns about making such maps public. But in a compromise, Asean environment ministers agreed in July that these maps would be shared between governments and on a “case-by- case basis”.
In an interview after the hour- long trilateral meeting with his two counterparts, Foreign Minister K. Shanmugam said concerns over the maps have not been fully resolved.
“Our haze-monitoring system is based on satellite imaging. You overlay that with a map of the concessions, who owns what area, and you know precisely what is happening,” he said.
“The only difficulty is the concession maps we have are based on the Internet and what people have been able to find. The official concession maps will be with Indonesia and that is something we will have to work through.”
Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa, speaking to reporters, sidestepped a question on whether Indonesia would provide concession maps, saying that these are “a means to an end”.
“The basic approach is building on national efforts… All the national (monitoring) systems must be synergised and brought together under the Asean framework.”
The three foreign ministers were also given a presentation on a joint haze-monitoring system developed by Singapore.
The system is undergoing trials in the three countries. Asean leaders meeting in Brunei in October will decide whether to adopt the system region-wide.
China’s Crossing the Line
China’s aggressive posture in Asia is triggering an alliance against itself as well as an Asian arms race.
By James Luko
Nolan Chart
Nolan Chart
China is picking a fight with South Korea, Japan and the Philippines. This is a mistake and is “crossing a line in several ways.”
First, China’s aggressive posture has become serious enough to “accelerate” America’s “pivot” to Asia, i.e. U.S. Now rapidly negotiating schedules through Philippines to host American military hardware, logistical supply support and a constant air and naval combat presence via rotation (must be in rotation due to national laws prohibiting the permanent basing of foreign forces on Philippines soil). In addition America will be opening a base in Darwin Australia as well as the significant American forces already present in Japan and South Korea.
Second- recent Chinese aggression has triggered Japan, South Korea, Philippines and the United States to create common ground and realize that as an alliance- coordinating- their forces and military capabilities far outstrip that of the Chinese. (The US-Australia-NZ ,ANZUS, alliance exists but there is limited cooperation between the US and New Zealand due to issues over nuclear weapons, but full coordination continues between the US and Australia- while the US maintains bilateral military treaties with South Korea, Japan and Philippines separately.)
Third- China’s decision to turn to military bullying instead of diplomatic or economic pressure, has convinced Japan that it’s time to modernize and build up their littoral defense capabilities as well as the Philippines who have recently gone on a buying binge of naval combat ships. Although the Philippines puny defense budget would preclude it from buying any substantial military assets, if Japan breaks their one percent defense budget limit- Japan would potentially have many billions more to spend in a rapid and massive military build-up. China’s recent aggression against Japan over disputed islands might just be enough for Japan’s parliament to allow temporarily “rearmament” which is prohibited by Japan’s constitution, although Japan since 1986 is no longer observing the defense spending limit of one percent and is now spending about three percent on defense.
While China can now pose a credible threat to Taiwan, in a conflict it would not be able to support its projection of power against Japan because of its lack of an aircraft carrier which China is only now putting to sea trials an ex-Ukrainian vessel. In addition, it would not be able to provide substantial air support in operations against the Philippines either- let alone stand against vastly superior capabilities of the United States Pacific fleet. In this case then, one can readily conclude that China’s actions are indeed- bullying tactics to force its adversaries to the negotiating table in a bilateral mode only where it would have the advantage one-on-one.
The point of this article is to illustrate that China’s continued and ever increasing aggressiveness- despite its militarily benign intent is “crossing” a line in which Japan, South Korea and the Philippines no longer feel comfortable in ignoring.
In fact, when looking at alternative options to warn China against its use of aggression, it’s really the American alliance which has economic push- not China. The combined economies, excluding the USA, of South Korea, Japan and the Philippines almost match that of China- 7.5 trillion vs. China’s 8.2 trillion (current dollars) and including the United States- the combined total stands at 23.5 trillion dollars towering over China’s GNP.
In this case, the proper response to a neighbourhood bully is to indeed, stand up to them and show no fear which is why the countries aforementioned seem on the brink of igniting a full blown arms race in the Pacific. This is why, “China’s crossing the line” will in fact, bring consequences which will either force China to back down- or- further entice China to even greater and more rapid build up of its own armed forces which already seems on a fast track to modernization, power projection and increased capabilities.
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