North Korean leader may attack to save face, says US congressman

Lee Chi-dong, Philippines News Agency | Yonhap

WASHINGTON DC - With North Korea churning out military threats, a key concern is that its young leader Kim Jong-un may reach a point of no return in provocative steps, a US congressman said Sunday.

Rep. Peter King (R-NY), former chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, said North Korea's statements may not be an "empty threat."

"Kim Jong-un is trying to establish himself. He's trying to be the tough guy. He is 28, 29 years old, and he keeps going further and further out, and I don't know if he can get himself back in," he said in an interview with ABC News.

"So my concern would be that he may feel to save face he has to launch some sort of attack on South Korea, or some base in the Pacific," said King, who now sits on the House intelligence and homeland security committees.

He described the North Korean regime as "more like an organized crime family running a territory."

North Korea has ratcheted up its threats to launch nuclear attacks on the US and stage a war against South Korea. It also warned that it could shut down the inter-Korean industrial complex in Kaesong, just north of the border of the two sides.

The US has responded with related calls for Pyongyang to calm down and by showing off its available firepower.

Pentagon action
The Pentagon dispatched Japan-based F-22 Raptor stealth fighters for the ongoing South Korea-US joint military drills after sending B-52 Stratofortress and B-2 Spirit bombers, both of which are capable of carrying nuclear bombs, to the Korean Peninsula.

Pentagon officials said such sorties are aimed at preventing North Korea from making a miscalculation.

"We have guarded against miscalculation on the Korean Peninsula for over 60 years," Pentagon press secretary George Little told CNN. "We hope to avoid miscalculation. We think we can. The North Koreans simply need to dial the temperature down."

Some Korea watchers in Washington say Pyongyang is unlikely to immediately translate its threats into actions.

"Regarding the latest news from Pyongyang, it looks like the voice of reason is finally beginning to prevail over blind fears and hurt pride, and the North Korean leadership is beginning to step back from the brink," Alexandre Mansourov, a US expert who has followed North Korea issues for a long time, said.

He cited a meeting of the central committee of the ruling Workers' Party, chaired by Kim Jong-un, on Sunday (local time).

Instead of issuing more direct threats in the session, the North set a new strategic course of "parallel economic construction and nuclear weapons development on the basis of self-reliance," according to its state media.

Good news, bad news
"This is both good news and bad news," Mansourov said. "This is good news because it means the North Korean leadership is probably not contemplating a military attack against the ROK (South Korea) and US in the immediate future."

But the bad news is that it may also mean the North Koreans will probably not negotiate any nuclear deals, including any nuclear freezes or nuclear test moratoriums, he said.

He noted the election of former Prime Minister Pak Pong-ju, known to be relatively reform-minded, as a full member of the Politburo, saying it might signal the North Korean leader's continued interest in economic experimentation.

Larry Niksch, the senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said Pyongyang's recent vitriolic rhetoric may be intended to distract the US from its immediate objective of developing a nuclear warhead for its intermediate range Nodong missile.

"North Korea is good at propaganda disinformation, and it seems to be working," he said. "Developing a nuclear warhead for the Nodong means developing a warhead for Iran's Shahab-3 missile, which is a replica of the Nodong."

By distracting US officials from the Nodong warhead priority, Niksch argued, North Korea also distracts the U.S. from paying attention to Iran's role in its weapons of massive destruction programs.

North Korea knows that development of a long-range missile and a nuclear warhead capable of reaching the mainland US will take several years to accomplish, he added.