Source: Patriots Billboard
Interesting How So Many Countries Are Increasing Their Military From Russia. Like So Many Things Going On Around The World Of Politics, “Follow The Money” Is Usually What It’s About.
Russian sailors tending to a Varshavyanka submarine in Sevastopol, Ukraine. (Oleg Nikishin/Getty Images)
Vietnam is to take delivery of two Russian diesel-electric submarines this year, complicating an evolving military dynamic in the South China Sea. The new subs represent both an effort by Vietnam to defend its territorial claims against China as well as a bid by Russia to advance its economic and strategic claims in the region.
Vietnam’s new Varshavyanka-class submarines will give it a new bargaining chip in an ongoing struggle over competing maritime claims. While the two nations have mostly engaged in “fishing fleet diplomacy” until now, the acquisition of the submarines sends a clear signal that Vietnam will not quietly acquiesce to China’s effort to claim the entire South China Sea as Chinese territory.
Background
Russia announced last month that it would deliver two diesel-electric submarines to Vietnam this year, the first of a total of six due to be delivered by 2016.
The first Varshavyanka class subs were launched in 1997. The Varshavyanka submarines being sold to Vietnam are an improved design that utilize better stealth technology and have an extended range. Thet will carry the Klub missile system (NATO designation: SS-N-27 Sizzler) and are primarily designed for anti-ship and anti-submarine warfare in shallow waters, making them an ideal platform for the South China Sea.
Vietnam ordered the six submarines from Russia in 2009 in response to growing tensions with China. The two nations have an ongoing territorial dispute over the Spratley and Paracel island chains. China declared in July of last year that it was creating a military garrison on a tiny South China Sea island known as Woody Island in the Paracels, which Vietnam also claims.
China has taken other steps to promote its territorial claims to the South China sea, such as issuing new passports with a map showing the entire sea area as Chinese territory. China also recently announced that Chinese cruise ships will begin tours of supposed Chinese territory in the region next month. Since the tiny islands lack adequate tourism facilities, tourists would visit islets by day and sleep on the cruise ships at night.
There have been several low-level skirmishes between the two nations’ maritime assets. On March 26, Hanoi publically complained that the Chinese Navy set fire to a Vietnamese fishing vessel. There also has been tension between Philippine and Chinese ships in the region.
Maritime disputes in the South China Sea are about much more than squabbling over tiny specks of land. There are an estimated 28 billion barrels of oil lying under the seabed in the South China Sea and large amounts of natural gas. As a result, the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) surrounding disputed islands are leading to competing oil and gas claims.
Meanwhile, Russia has been strengthening defense ties with Vietnam over the past several years. This coincides both with the two nations’ growing economic ties, especially in the energy sector, and Russia’s effort to expand the range of its navy.
Currently, Russia’s state-owned petroleum company, Gazprom, is jointly exploring two different blocks in Vietnam’s EEZ in the South China Sea. Vietnam also operates a joint offshore oil exploration operation with an Indian firm.
In July of last year, Russia’s naval chief confirmed that Russia was engaged in talks with Vietnam to establish a new Russian naval base at Cam Ranh Bay. A Russian Ministry of Defense official visited Cam Ranh Bay last month.
Russia has several naval contracts with Vietnam over the next decade. Russian defense officials have said its navy will assist in launching the Vietnamese submarine fleet and will train crews for the vessels.
China has complained to Russia and India for their presence in the region, but both states have ignored these complaints.
Analysis
While other nations in the region besides China already own submarines, Vietnam’s acquisition of these ships could affect the power balance in the South China Sea and send a message to Beijing.
China is actively seeking to create de facto sovereignty over the entire region. Its latest round of naval exercises last month, which reached far into the southern South China Sea and included amphibious landings and aircraft, was a brazen indication of this.
Most regional actors have no recourse but to let this happen since they do not have the political will or military capabilities to stand up to China. Vietnam, on the other hand, has continued to stake its claims.
While Vietnam could not decisively defeat China in a naval battle, it may be willing to confront Chinese naval forces in the hope that the presence of Vietnamese naval assets will convince China to alter its aggressive efforts to claim the South China Sea.
Vietnam may also hope that by forcing a military standoff with China, it could force international mediation, perhaps by the UN. Such an outcome appears unlikely since China has steadfastly refused all multilateral efforts to reduce tensions in the South China Sea. Beijing has instead exclusively relied on bilateral talks which it can dominate without risking rulings or observations by third parties that may go against its South China Sea policy.
Russia’s interest in Vietnam, both militarily and economically, is growing. It desires to have the ability to project power and influence beyond its borders—something it has not enjoyed since the Soviet era.
The sale of Russian submarines to Vietnam allows Russia to enter the South China Sea controversy. While it still is years away from the realization of a Russian naval base in the region, it is happy to bolster Vietnam, both to cater to a long-time ally and to offset American efforts to court it and possibly gain basing rights for U.S. Navy ships in Cam Ranh Bay.
Conclusion
The Varshavyanka serves as a clear manifestation of Vietnam’s emerging economic and military relationship with Russia. It also helps fulfill Russia’s national power-projection agenda. As a result, it is a win-win for both nations.
Vietnam knows that it cannot defeat China’s navy in a naval confrontation. However, the addition of the Varshavyanka to Vietnam’s arsenal is intended to send a clear signal to China that Vietnam will not stand by and let China grab control of the South China Sea by default. It also signifies Russia’s intention to assist Vietnam in its struggle to assert its territorial rights.
No comments:
Post a Comment