Incoming Japanese premier Shinzo Abe arrives at a breakfast meeting with Japanese business leaders at a hotel in Tokyo the morning after he won the December 17 national elections. Abe is expected to take a harder line on China, and has said he’d favor changing the Japanese constitution to allow Japan to rearm. (YOSHIKAZU TSUNO/AFP/Getty Images)
Recent statements by Philippine’s foreign minister in support of a rearmed Japan highlight Southeast Asia’s unease over China’s increasingly aggressive efforts to grab disputed territory. More interestingly, the statements suggest that the Philippines is hoping to form a unified front, comprised of well-armed allies, to counter Chinese imperialism.
It appears that multilateral action and the formation of a bloc of aligned nations bent on thwarting Chinese territorial claims will be the preferred means of addressing ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The pronouncements by Philippine officials will no doubt ruffle feathers in Beijing. The statements are also likely to boost support for hardliners in Tokyo who support a more robust Japanese military presence and suggest that the historical scars of the Japanese occupation during World War II are fading.
Background
A new Japanese constitution was written following the country’s unconditional surrender in World War II. The constitution was written with the intention of ensuring that Japan would be a pacifist nation. Article 9 of Japan’s 1947 constitution essentially prohibits Japan from reconstituting a standing military for offensive purposes and even goes so far as to reject the use of force as a means to resolve diplomatic disputes.
Japan has maintained a defensive military posture since World War II. It has been able to preserve a military capability through the creation of a Self Defense Force. The SDF is technically considered an extension of the national police force, even though it encompasses air, sea, and land divisions. The force, however, does not include nuclear weapons, aircraft carriers, or long-range bombers.
This has remained Japan’s status quo for more than 60 years, though there has been periodic discussion of amending the Japanese constitution. The issue most recently came to the fore in a December 9 article in the Financial Times that quoted Philippine Foreign Minister Albert del Rosario discussing the possibility and implications of a potentially rearmed Japan. In the interview, Del Rosario stated: “We would welcome that very much,” adding, “We are looking for balancing factors in the region and Japan could be a significant balancing factor.”
Del Rosario’s comments are significant because the Japanese occupation of the Philippines from 1942 to 1945 remains a painful memory. As such, his explicit support of a rearmed Japan is a move away from this history to focus on present day security concerns.
Ongoing Chinese provocations, including a series of naval maneuvers near the Spratly Islands, have heightened tensions and concerns over the territorial integrity of the Philippines. The crux of this issue deals with the ownership of this group of roughly 100 uninhabited coral reefs and island chains near the Philippines and Malaysia. The Chinese aggressively and steadfastly assert ownership, eyeing the potentially lucrative offshore oil and gas deposits off the islands’ banks.
Another territorial claim, the Scarborough Shoal or Chinese-named Huangyan Island, has also garnered international attention due to numerous clashes between the Chinese and Filipino fishermen who fish in the surrounding waters. While there have been no military exchanges between the two, naval vessels have patrolled the region and tensions remain high.
Similarly, Japan faces its own maritime disputes with China, the most contentious of which is competing claims of ownership over the Japanese-controlled Senkaku islands, or as the Chinese call them, the Diaoyu Islands.
In November, the disputes over territorial rights in the South China Sea, specifically between China and the Philippines, flared up at the ASEAN Summit in Cambodia. Efforts to resolve these disputes failed for a second consecutive ASEAN summit.
During the final days of the November summit, confusion and dissent were on display. Cambodia, a close ally of Beijing, released a statement saying that all parties had agreed not to internationalize maritime disputes. The next day the Philippines came out and rejected that statement, saying it had not agreed to any such thing. China has advocated that disagreements between nations in the region be resolved in a one-on-one, bilateral fashion, while the Philippines and others are clearly seeking multilateral approaches.
Exacerbating tensions, China has started to include the aforementioned disputed territories the map pictured on Chinese passports. This development, and the picture known as the “nine-dash-line,” has angered nations in the region. Both Vietnam and the Philippines lodged formal protests and have refused to stamp the Chinese passports that include a map of the disputed territories.
Analysis
As tensions run high over territorial disputes in the South China Sea, the statement by the Philippines in support of a rearmed Japan signals the extent of concern in the region and the desire of smaller Asian nations to band together to balance an expansionist China. China’s assertion of ownership of all of the disputed territories in the South China Sea continues to be a significant flashpoint. It has the potential to escalate, either intentionally or accidentally, into a limited military conflict.
The victory by conservatives this week in Japan will almost certainly encourage Japan to take a more active role in the region, and perhaps even revise the constitution. Shinzo Abe, elected for the second time as prime minister of Japan earlier this week, is a hardliner and anti-China hawk. He and his LDP party have endorsed the notion of Japanese rearmament to a certain degree and have also called for a tougher response to Chinese aggressive efforts to claim disputed territories in the region.
Shinzo Abe’s campaign primarily utilized nationalist sentiment to garner public opinion in his favor, emphasizing the need to take a tougher line with China. To achieve this line, Abe has maintained that revising the Japanese constitution to allow a more powerful military would serve as a reminder to China that its aggression can and will be counterbalanced. Abe’s proposed constitutional changes would send a message to the Japanese people and to the world: a tougher line towards China is in the region’s best interest and will be pursued.
Disputes continue to linger and recent provocations have highlighted the view in Tokyo of the need for Japan to take a more forceful stance against Chinese territorial intrusion. On December 13 a Chinese jet violated Japanese airspace over the disputed Senkaku Islands, causing Japan to scramble two F-15 fighter aircraft to intercept. Notably, this is the first violation of Japanese airspace by the Chinese since 1958. This latest display fits into a pattern of more aggressive actions toward the Japanese by China, including maritime surveillance crafts entering Japanese waters near Okinawa.
The call by the Philippines to rearm Japan signals the country’s rendered judgment on the situation, that such a move would shift the power balance and assist smaller nations in the region in negotiating with China. China would prefer to deal with each of its neighbors individually, largely because its leaders view such scenarios as being beneficial to maintaining regional leverage. Multilateral discussions complicate the picture for China. There is the potential for the United States to become involved in such diplomatic discourse is possible, a scenario the Chinese would definitely not welcome.
China’s assertiveness is forcing once historical adversaries to rethink relations, partly precipitating the realignment of the military partnership between Japan and the Philippines. This past summer, both countries signed an agreement to strengthen military ties, which including technology cooperation and personnel transfers. As part of the deal, Japan agreed to provide the Philippine Coast Guard with 12 patrol boats.
Conclusion
As China continues to move to solidify control over disputed territories, smaller nations like Japan and the Philippines are increasingly recognizing that a united front may be the best course of actions to protect their own national interests. The call to rearm Japan is a clear message to Beijing that the Philippines sees a counterbalance as a strategic necessity.
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