Friday, December 28, 2012

Arab Spring aftershock


Back Channel
By Alejandro Del Rosario 
Manila Standard Today
As shown by the ugly face of civil war in Syria, the Arab Spring that engulfed the Middle East is not over. It has threatened to include Jordan, one of the more moderate Arab states and home to millions of displaced Palestinians.
In Egypt, a gathering storm has reprised itself in Tahrir Square in the heart of Cairo where Hosni Mubarak’s downfall started. President Mohammed Morsi who played a key role in bringing about a ceasefire in the rocket exchange between Israel and Gaza Strip-based Hamas, is in peril of being deposed. He is counting on the support of the Muslim Brotherhood but an opposing force fuming over Morsi arrogating dictatorial powers to himself is determined to face him down. Egyptians could not accept bringing down a dictator only to replace him with another one.
In Syria, a new element in the bloodletting has been added to the long suffering populace. As a weapon of war, the rape of innocent women caught in rebel-held territory has given a new dimension in Syria’s vicious cycle of violence.
Rape of women as a weapon of war is not new. It was used during the bloody Balkan war of ethnic cleansing in 1992-1995 when thousands of Bosnia’s Muslim women were violated by their Serbian captors. In a trip to Bosnia-Herzogovina, I saw some of these women carrying the burden of shame they suffered at the hands of Serbs who had forced them to bear Serbian children.
There are signs in the horizon the Syrian civil war is coming to its end despite the escalation of fighting between the Assad regime’s loyal forces and the advancing rebels. An indication is the surfacing of rumors President Bashar Assad is already looking at exit options. Cuba and Venezuela seem to offer likely destinations. But Cuba with an ailing and aging Fidel Castro and Venezuela with cancer-stricken Hugo Chavez look like short-term havens for a despot facing retribution for crimes against his people.
Iran with a strident anti-US Mahmoud Ahmadinejad offers the best possible sanctuary for Assad and his family. The Syrian strongman can be assured of asylum without fear of extradition to stand trial for crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
New envoy to China
Congratulations to Foreign Affairs Undersecretary for Policy Erlinda Basilio, the new Philippine ambassador to China. Ambassador Basilio is eminently qualified with her long years as career officer in the foreign service.
Except for current Philippine Ambassador to the Court of St. James, Ricky Manalo, the three other candidates on the short list submitted to the President lacked the needed experience. One had a stint as consul-general in Shanghai but that hardly qualifies him for the complex job of interfacing with the mandarins in Beijing. The other, a former DFA spokesman and at one-time served as ambassador to Kuala Lumpur, is not experienced enough but should be ready after another posting or two.
The third, only in his first foreign posting as chief of mission, should have not been even been considered but word has it he’s close to the foreign secretary. He’s known as a speechwriter for the foreign secretary. For a diplomat, he’s tactless and has a reputation for being abrasive.
Being ambassador to Beijing is a demanding job particularly during our strained relations with China. Look at what happened to Basilio’s predecessor, Ambassador Sonia Brady, who was stricken ill and had to return home.
Ambassador Basilio is a tough, seasoned diplomat. She should be able to stand up to the Chinese without breaching the niceties of diplomatic protocol. She should, however, be wary with Chinese doublespeak. The Chinese do not always mean what they say.
Just listen to the spiel being mouthed by Basilio’s counterpart here, Chinese Ambassador Ma Kequing who’s all over the place giving interviews to assuage us that China wants peace. She said the other claimants to the shoals and islets in the South China Sea should not be unduly alarmed by the Chinese navy’s action in the disputed area,
Yeah, right. This, after Beijing had announced that Hainan patrol boats would interdict, board, search and expel foreign vessels sailing in territorial waters in the South China Sea claimed entirely by China. In the guise of a making it appear it’s just the Hainanese province patrol boats who will interdict foreign vessels, it’s patently clear no action would be taken by local authorities without Beijing’s blessing
Beijing, to say the least, is insulting the intelligence of the international community.

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