PerryScope
by Perry Diaz
With barely a week left to the May 10 elections, poll surveys have consistently shown Noynoy Aquino with a solid base of supporters. And if these surveys were the best indicators of who would be elected president, then it would be Noynoy with 12% to 18% lead over his closest opponent.
The Manila Standard survey conducted last April 25-27 shows former president Joseph “Erap” Estrada ahead of Manny Villar for the first time, 22% and 20%, respectively, and frontrunner Noynoy with a formidable 38% rating. My take is that Erap’s numbers would continue to increase at the expense of Villar who would slide down to 15% on election day.
I expect Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro’s 9% rating to double to 20% on election day. This is due to the “command vote” of Lakas-Kampi-CMD local incumbent candidates who are supporting him. He claims that 50 incumbent governors are supporting him.
Meanwhile, Noynoy enjoys a rock-solid support base of 37%. However, he might lose a few points due to “electronic Garci” dagdag-bawas (add-subtract) cheating operations in favor of Villar or Gibo, whoever the “cheating syndicate” in Comelec would “sell” to.
Best Case Scenario
The following is my forecast for the May 10 presidential election, plus or minus 3%:
1. Noynoy Aquino 35%
2. Erap Estrada 25%
3. Gibo Teodoro 20%
4. Manny Villar 15%
5. Others 5%
My forecast is predicated on “clean elections.” However, the whole country — and the global Filipino community — is abuzz with apprehension that this year’s elections might be the dirtiest since the 1949 elections when “flying voters” and all kinds of cheatings were rampant.
This year, there is documentary proof that there could be as many as five million “flying voters” and “zombie voters.” This happened as a result of erroneous compilation of the voters’ list by Smartmatic-TIM. Smartmatic-TIM is the company contracted by Comelec to develop and implement the country’s first Automated Election System (AES).
Last May 1, a news report said: “Smartmatic operators, technicians and supervisors in Lanao del Sur are all partisans. Some of them are sons, daughters, nephews and nieces. We complained before our election officer but we [were] surprised when he told us that all election officers in Lanao del Sur, (40 municipalities and 1 city) have no knowledge as to who have been appointed. According to him, they signed a manifesto regarding this matter and submitted the same to the Commission on Elections in Manila but until now there is no reaction taken by the Comelec.”
Is the situation in Lanao del Sur indicative of the vulnerability of the rest of the country to an electronic version of “dagdag-bawas” reminiscent of the “Hello Garci” cheating scandal during the 2004 elections? If so, then the presidential elections on May 10 would just be a farcical exercise running behind the façade of Smartmatic-TIM, whose legitimacy is now being questioned.
In my last article, “Who owns Smartmatic-TIM?”, I wrote: “They were even able to fool the public into thinking that the contract Comelec entered into was with the Venezuelan connected Dutch incorporated foreign corporation, Smartmatic. It’s not. It’s with a Philippine registered corporation called Smartmatic Sahi Technology Inc. incorporated only in March 23, 2008 where the primary shareholder is Cezar Quiambao and his family – a golfing buddy of the First Gentleman.”
Second Scenario: Electronic Garci
A massive “electronic Garci” cheating operation could drastically change the outcome of the presidential elections in favor of Villar. To achieve victory, Villar has to win by at least 30% of the vote. That means that at least seven million votes have to be surreptitiously added to his count and subtracted from Noynoy’s. Noynoy would then slide down to 20% of the vote.
If this scenario happens, it could trigger a “people power” revolution. A survey conducted a few months ago showed that one-half of the people expect a “people power” revolution in the event of massive election cheatings. Concerned about the prospect of “electronic Garci” or other forms of election cheating, Noynoy indicated that he himself would lead a “people power” revolution should it happen like in the 1986 EDSA “people power” revolution that deposed the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos and catapulted his mother Cory Aquino to the presidency.
Third Scenario: No Proclamation
But worse than a questionable Villar victory is a scenario where Congress does not proclaim the winners of the presidential, vice presidential, and senatorial elections by June 30, 2010 when Gloria will step down from the presidency. In the absence of a president, a vice president, and a Senate president, the Speaker of the House of Representatives would be next in the presidential line of succession.
It is for this reason that Gloria is running for a congressional seat this year in which she is expected to win. She would then vie for the Speakership of the House of Representatives, which she is also expected to get. And from there, she’s on her way back to the presidency… and power.
Worst Case Scenario: Martial Law/Military Revolt
However, it is expected that once Gloria reclaims the presidency, all hell would break loose. There would be pandemonium on the streets which would most likely lead to an imposition of martial law to quell public outrage over Gloria’s Machiavellian power grab.
Speculation is rife that if martial law was imposed, a military revolt would erupt pitting anti-Arroyo and pro-Aquino military officers against the military top brass loyal to Gloria.
Recently, Noynoy disclosed that he had a meeting with several members of the Philippine Military Academy (PMA) classes of 1977, 1978 and other younger batches. He said that they discussed the officers’ role in the event of a “failure of elections” on May 10.
Apparently, Gloria doesn’t have the loyalty of all the generals, a situation that could play into the hands of Noynoy if massive cheating resulted in undermining his votes.
At the end of the day, if the second or third scenario happened, it could trigger the “worst case scenario” which could bring the country to the brink of civil war… all because of Gloria’s hunger for power.
There is a term for that: megalomania.
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