Monday, May 17, 2010

Analysis: Why GMA Aborted Noel?

FRANKLY SPEAKING
by Frank Wenceslao

This is a post-election analysis of how important the contribution is of U.S. Pinoys, their parents, siblings, other relatives and beneficiaries at home to the victory of Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III and why Gloria Macapagal Arroyo aborted her Oplan Noel (no election) and other plots to continue in power.

The sword thrust like in a bullfight that killed Oplan Noel was the overwhelming majority of the AFP officer corps’ refusal to take part in it coupled with unintended consequences of actions elsewhere. Let me start with an email I received from Manila about mid-April advising me of a Villar-Roxas win. Earlier information pointed to a possible Oplan Noel.

My sources are members like me of the world famous 365 Breakfast Club at Makati’s Intercontinental Hotel coffee shop. Since Marcos time there’s been interaction at the club among administration officials, opposition leaders and media people trying to outdo each other whose information or predictions are most accurate. The prediction of the Villar-Roxas win became the talk of the club when Manny Villar tied Aquino in SWS and Pulse Asia surveys and the rumored Villaroyo deal became rife.

However, Oplan Noel was restored as Plan B when Villar’s poll rating went on a free-fall and his campaign began unraveling. The ads on his “poor Tondo boy” background were exposed with two lies too many and the release of the fake psychiatric report on Aquino became the last straw that convinced voters of Villar’s dishonesty.

Based on evidence received from Manila which would have been libelous if published there, I opened up salvos in this column read around the world with irrefutable evidence of wrongdoings to show the billions of pesos the Villars made from real estate development and mortgage lending were beyond the realm of statistical probability and could only be ill-gotten from the proceeds of corruption.

I summarized my charges and sent them to the White House, the respective chairmen of the U.S. Senate and House foreign relations committees and the two U.S. senators from California. I emphasized in my letters the danger of the Arroyo-Villar deal pointing out that with her dossiers on him since his becoming a public official; if she’s elected to the House (as is now a fact), Villar has no choice but support her to be speaker and effectively be a co-president.

I made it unmistakably clear to every U.S. official I could reach the danger of the Arroyo-Villar deal; that’s to lose the Philippine democratic government like what would’ve happened to Honduras when the Obama administration mistakenly backed Manuel Zelaya who wanted to join the Cuba-Venezuela bloc. Luckily, the mistake was corrected with the U.S. just “barking” but didn’t follow through with action.

As always there’s a fly in the ointment. GMA’s appointment of Justice Renato Corona to succeed retiring Chief Justice Reynato Puno simply made no sense and her promise of cooperation for a smooth transition to the next administration is a blatant lie. Pamusa’s organizers, supporters and volunteers are up in arms and urged me to manifest their objection and for Corona to refuse the appointment.

The appointment once again proves GMA as incurably narcissistic. In fact, we have it on good authority in her last U.S. trip for the nuclear summit she’d no business attending, she sent up trial balloons what the U.S. would do if a national emergency caused by widespread power failures caused by NPAs, Muslim secessionists and Abu Sayyaf Group prevented holding the May 10 elections.

GMA completely embarrassed herself when a State Department official reportedly told her that with her job approval rating and international perception of her pervasively corrupt administration, she can’t govern and the earlier the next administration takes over, the better for the Filipino people.

My main point though is Aquino’s election and eventual success depends on realizing his battle cry, “Kung walang corrupt, walang mahirap” which he can accomplish. The World Bank admitted that government corruption has been “the greatest single obstacle to economic and social development” of poor nations like the Philippines. This bound over 120 countries to adopt the U.N. Convention Against Corruption (UNCAC) and singled out the “return of assets as a fundamental principle of the Convention.”

Pamusa’s think-tankers are more in favor of UNCAC’s Article 54(1)(c) that establishes non-criminal systems of confiscation based on lower standard of evidence (“preponderance of the evidence” rather than “beyond a reasonable doubt”). The next administration has two options to compel settlements, namely: criminal action with U.S. Government assistance under the UNCAC’s international cooperation provisions (UNCAC-ICP) enforced by U.S. laws and a collateral civil suit both adjudicated in the States.

No Filipino with ill-gotten assets from corruption would dare fight in U.S. court both criminal and civil actions because of the enormous legal expenses to be incurred leaving, thus the only option is to negotiate settlement, return the illicit assets to the Philippine Government and probably be allowed to keep a part as may be approved by a U.S. court.

I have a preliminary plan with Loida Nicolas Lewis how U.S. Pinoys can be the difference to ensure the success of Aquino’s presidency. The plan can be rolled out as his EO No. 1, s. 2010 similar to President Cory Aquino’s EOs 1 and 2 s. 1986. The second authorizes the PCGG or successor to request and appeal to foreign governments to freeze and prevent the transfer, conveyance, encumbrance, concealment or liquidation of ill-gotten wealth or properties found within their respective jurisdictions.

This could’ve been done under GMA had she approved granting Pamusa PCGG’s power of attorney, or governmental authority required by U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) to access financial information and recover, for instance, the ill-gotten wealth of Marcos and his cronies. GMA’s refusal to grant Pamusa’s request is understandably out of fear the governmental authority will eventually impact her, close associates and other family members.

I’ve studied anticorruption models in different countries since Pamusa was organized in Aug. 2006. The EO is just an interim arrangement because legislation is needed conformably with the UNCAC. While graft and corruption can’t be eliminated, Aquino’s 6-year presidency will minimize or make it too costly and deter those not criminally inclined to get involved.

In conclusion, it looks from feelers who contacted me to set aside Pamusa’s threat to charge her sons, Mikey and Dato with their spouses for “seriously violating U.S. laws on American soil” of wire fraud, money laundering, racketeering, foreign corrupt practices, and conspiracies to commit these crimes for acquiring real properties and investing in business enterprises from illegally sourced funds or proceeds of corruption could be another reason for GMA to back off Oplan Noel.

Much to my regret, my colleagues insist that should Justice Corona accept his Chief Justice appointment by GMA, Pamusa will be compelled to dig up the funds he has in U.S. or foreign bank accounts, real properties and other investment that might have come from inexplicable sources or beyond legitimate income for him to be charged in the U.S. like the Arroyo Bros. On the other hand, it will be patriotic and a show of selflessness if Corona would let President Aquino decide who to appoint the next Chief Justice.

I firmly believe that upon his inauguration, President Aquino would grant Pamusa the governmental authority required by the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) to support measures in tracing, freezing, seizure and recovering the worldwide assets of current and former Filipino or ex-Filipino government officials, their close associates and immediate family members, or private individuals and businessmen that colluded with them.

Of course, if Pamusa is given the task, we will be as reasonable as possible to people who will voluntarily step up to negotiate settlement of ill-gotten assets from corruption.

Contact information: fcwenceslao1034@gmail.com and frankw@pamusa.net.

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