Is China readying for war?

PerryScope

By Perry Diaz

In her boldest and daring move to date, China imposed fishing restrictions within a large part of South China Sea. In essence, it’s a declaration that China has now exclusive control over the South China Sea and any foreign fishing boat that enters these waters must get the approval of Chinese authorities in Hainan province. The area claimed by Hainan is two million square kilometers (770,000 square miles) of water in the South China Sea, which has a total area of 3.5 million square kilometers (1.4 million square miles).

This latest move by China signals a new stage in her attempt to gain control of the East and South China Seas including the air space above them. It comes just five weeks after she unilaterally imposed an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) that covers most of the East China Sea including the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands and the South Korean-held Socotra Rock. It also overlaps about half of the Japanese ADIZ and smaller parts of the South Korean and Taiwanese ADIZ. But what made the Chinese ADIZ different from the Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese ADIZ is that foreign aircraft entering the Chinese ADIZ must report their flight plans to Chinese authorities.

Accidental war

USS Cowpens

It was anticipated that China would also declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea. But instead it imposed foreign fishing requirements in the waters under her jurisdiction effective January 1, 2014. The U.S. immediately lodged her opposition to the Chinese move. In a news briefing, a State Department spokesperson issued a statement saying, “The passing of these restrictions on other countries’ fishing activities in disputed portions of the South China Sea is a provocative and potentially dangerous act.”

Last December 5, the USS Cowpens, an Aegis guided-missile cruiser, was forced to take evasive action to avoid colliding with a Chinese naval vessel that stopped ahead of the Cowpens’ way. The Chinese ship was part of the Liaoning carrier strike group, which was on its way back to its base in Qingdao from Hainan. Had the Cowpens not evaded collision, it could have ended in a disastrous situation. This brazen and deliberate act on the part of the Chinese naval vessel demonstrates once again China’s propensity for bullying her neighbors.

Chinese imperialism

The question is: What is China’s motivation or reasons for pursuing an imperialistic agenda? What comes to mind is China’s rapid economic growth and dwindling food and natural resources. With an economic growth of 7.6% and population of 1.3 billion people, China needs oil and gas to fuel her economic engine and food to feed an aging population. In a way, China finds herself in the same situation as the old European empires like Great Britain, France, Spain, Portugal, Germany, and the Netherlands who had to colonize other countries to get the resources that they didn’t have at home.

It did not then come as a surprise that China had embarked on a colonial binge. Using her huge amount of surplus money, China invests in the third world countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America as well as the developed western countries. She’s buying large amounts of stocks in energy producing companies. She is also buying or leasing large tracts of land in third world countries for agricultural and food productions. She sends fishing expeditions as far as the Atlantic Ocean and even the North and South Poles. And she’s illegally buying or leasing mining rights in mineral-rich countries like the Philippines.

Crude oil trade flows in the South China Sea (2011)

But with all these forays into far-flung regions, China has yet to tap the rich resources in the South China Sea. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its 2013 report estimates the South China Sea to contain approximately 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in proved and probable reserves. However, the Chinese National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) is more optimistic. In November 2012, CNOOC estimates the South China Sea to hold around 125 billion barrels of oil and 500 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in undiscovered resources.

If China could only access these resources, then all her energy needs would be satisfied. She would end her dependency on oil from the Middle East and Africa where most of her imported foreign oil comes from, 80% of which passes through the Strait of Malacca. Indeed, her biggest nightmare would be the U.S. blocking the choke point at the Strait of Malacca. Reliable sources say that if the flow of Middle Eastern and African oil were blocked, China would run out of oil in 10 days! And without oil, she can’t win a war; just like what happened to Germany in World War II when the Allies bombed Germany’s refineries in Romania.

Naval arms race

India’s new aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya

China’s aggressive moves are making her Asian neighbors jittery. In response, these countries are on a shopping spree for warships. Recently, Russia delivered a refurbished aircraft carrier to India. With two aircraft carriers in her navy, India is in a good position to deter China from taking a foothold in the Indian Ocean. Russia also delivered to Vietnam the first of six Russian-made submarines. Singapore purchased two of the most advanced submarines from Germany. Malaysia purchased two submarines from a Franco-Spanish consortium. Bangladesh had finalized the procurement of two submarines from China. Indonesia is planning to expand her naval fleet with submarines from South Korea and Russia. Myanmar is planning to create a submarine force by 2015. And Taiwan had just received the first batch of U.S. anti-ship missiles to strengthen the striking capability of her submarines.

With all these naval procurements happening among China’s neighbors, there would come a time when a confrontation similar to the USS Cowpens incident could happen. And all it would take to start a war is for someone to fire a shot. Makes one wonder if China is readying for war?

(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)