By Val G. Abelgas
Mindanao gets another chance at lasting peace with the signing of the final annexes to the framework agreement that would pave the way for a Comprehensive Agreement on Bangsamoro. Members of the negotiating panels were optimistic that the final peace agreement would be signed in March or April in Kuala Lumpur.
As a Filipino and as a journalist who has watched developments in Mindanao for decades, we have always hoped that peace would finally come to that land of promise and give the beleaguered people a chance to finally lead normal lives and the region’s economy an opportunity to finally live up to its promise.
The promise of Mindanao has been stunted by the decades-old insurgency and hopefully, with peace in the horizon, the region would flourish with its rich mineral resources, verdant agricultural lands, and rich fishing grounds. And hopefully, with the Moro people finally no longer feeling abandoned and ignored, they will live in peace with the Christians and other tribes to lead Mindanao to its long-delayed prosperity.
But while the new peace agreement gives us hope, it also brings fears and uncertainties. Will the new peace accord be acceptable to all parties in the region? Will the Muslim rebels finally lay down their arms – all their weapons – as mandated by the peace accord? Will the Moro National Liberation Front, under Nur Misuari, and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, under MILF renegade Ameril Umbra Kato, finally decide to join the MILF in embracing peace?
Will the final peace agreement and its enabling law be approved by the people of Mindanao in a plebiscite? Remember that Christians remain the majority in the region, and that many of them feel that they were not consulted on the issues raised in the negotiations.
It is almost certain that the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, once signed, would be challenged before the Supreme Court as to its constitutionality. Will it pass muster before the justices? Or will the peace accord go the way of the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain, which was struck down as unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in August 2008, sending the negotiating panels back to square one?
If Congress convenes to amend the Constitution to legalize the peace accord’s provisions, will the sought-after provisions pas the body even without President Aquino dangling pork barrel funds?
What if the Supreme Court junks the Comprehensive Peace Agreement or any of its provisions or Congress fails to amend the Constitution to fix whatever unconstitutional provisions it has, will it not trigger an even bigger war? This was what happened in 2008 after the Court junked the MOA on Ancestral Domain when forces of Umbra Kato and two other MILF commanders attacked several towns in Central Mindanao, resulting in the death of 44 people, including 23 soldiers.
But the biggest stumbling block to peace remains Misuari’s MNLF and Umbra Kato’s BIFF.
In August last year, Misuari criticized the government’s failure to comply with the provisions of the 1996 Tripoli peace agreement and warned of renewed war if the government abrogates the accord that was reached during the time of President Ramos. MNLF leaders also warned of war in Mindanao if the government were to sign a final agreement with the MILF and continued to ignore the peace pact with the MNLF.
As if to prove they are still a force to reckon with, rebels belonging to the Nur Misuari-led MNLF attacked several villages in Zamboanga and Basilan provinces in September, resulting in the death of 203 people, the destruction of several homes, and the evacuation of thousands of war-weary residents.
“The MNLF has demonstrated its capability to make trouble,” said Rommel Banlaoi, executive director of the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research. He was referring to the MNLF headed by Misuari, a former Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao governor, which was involved in the Zamboanga standoff. “It can undermine the peace dividends; it can spoil the whole process and even hijack the agenda of the new Bangsamoro government.”
Muslimin Sema, chairman of the MNLF Committee of 15, said on Sunday: “The MNLF has spoken. We do not reject outright any agreement to be reached by the GPH and the MILF. Our reluctance to recognize stands from the point of view that the 1996 Final Peace Agreement is a final agreement for one people and one territory that has never reached culmination, it is still under review.”
The MNLF said if the new peace accord is signed, Mindanao will see a realignment of forces, with several MILF rebels joining Umbra Kato’s BIFF and eventually the MNLF.
Just two days after the signing of the final annex of the framework agreement, the military preempted any moves by the BIFF when government forces raided several camps of the BIFF in Maguindanao, killing 17 rebels and sending civilians scampering to safety.
The raids would only send wrong signals to both MNLF and BIFF rebels that the government is indeed leaving them out. Besides, the amnesty offered by the government was exclusively for MILF rebels and excluded any other insurgent groups. Perhaps, the government should have offered the amnesty to all Muslim insurgents just to prove that the peace the agreement offers is for everybody, not just the MILF.
In any case, let us just hope that the peace pact with the MILF would overcome all obstacles and that peace would reign at last in the troubled region of Central Mindanao. The people of Mindanao deserve it; the country needs it.
(valabelgas@aol.com)
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