By DUCKY PAREDES
MALAYA
MALAYA
‘India’s population is expected to surpass China’s around 2028 when both countries will have populations of around 1.45 billion.’
THE world’s population could reach 11 billion by the year 2100, from slightly less than 8 billion today.
The United Nations reported that the population hit 7 billion in October 2011, an amazing increase from the 5 million people who lived on the planet in 8000 B.C. or the 1 billion who were alive in 1805.
Right now, Africa’s population stands at 1.1 billion, but that is expected to increase to 4.2 billion, by 2100.
The rest of the world is unlikely to see big changes from the past estimate. Europe may see a slight dip in population, because it continues to have a below-replacement birth rate, meaning more people are dying than being born.
The population will likely reach between 9 billion and 13 billion by 2100.
***
India’s population is expected to surpass China’s around 2028 when both countries will have populations of around 1.45 billion.
While India’s population is forecast to grow to around 1.6 billion and then slowly decline to 1.5 billion in 2100, China’s is expected to start decreasing after 2030, possibly falling to 1.1 billion in 2100.
***
The report found global fertility rates falling rapidly, though not nearly fast enough to avoid a significant population jump over the next decades. In fact, the UN revised its population projection upward since its last report two years ago, mostly due to higher fertility projections in the countries with the most children per women. The previous projection had the global population reaching 9.3 billion people in 2050.
Among the fastest-growing countries is Nigeria, whose population is expected to surpass the US population before the middle of the century and could start to rival China as the second-most populous country in the world by the end of the century, according to the report.
By 2050, Nigeria’s population is expected to reach more than 440 million people, compared to about 400 million for the US The oil-rich African country’s population is forecast to be nearly 914 million by 2100.
***
The report found that most countries with very high levels of fertility – more than 5 children per women – are on the UN list of least-developed countries. Most are in Africa, but they also include Afghanistan and East Timor.
The average number of children per woman has swiftly declined in several large countries, including China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Brazil and South Africa, leading to a reduction in population growth rates in much of the developing world.
In contrast, many European and eastern Asia countries have very low fertility levels.
Still, population growth until 2050 is all but inevitable.
Among the notable findings in the report:
• The population in developing regions is projected to increase from 5.9 billion in 2013 to 8.2 billion in 2050. In contrast, the population of developed countries is expected to remain largely unchanged during that period, at around 1.3 billion people.
• The number of children in less-developed regions is at all time high at 1.7 billion. In those regions, children under age 15 account for 26% of the population. In the poorest countries, children constitute 40% of their populations, posing huge challenges for providing education and employment.
• In wealthier regions, by contrast, children account for 16% of the population. In developed countries as a whole, the number of older people has already surpassed the number of children, and by 2050 the number of older people will be nearly twice the number of children.
• Low-fertility countries now include all of Europe except Iceland plus 19 countries in Asia, 17 in the Americas, two in Africa and one in Oceania• The populations of several countries are expected to decline by more than 15% by 2050, including Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cuba, Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Russia Serbia, and Ukraine.
• Life expectancy at birth for the world as a whole rose from 47 years in 1950-55 to 69 years in 2005-2010 and is projected to reach 76 years in 2045-2050 and 82 years in 2095-2100.
***
Then, there is Climate Change. What do we need to do?
Cities and coastal areas across the globe are already building or planning defenses to protect from storm surges and other effects of global warming.
Some are planning cities that will simply adapt to more water.
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s $20 billion plan to build floodwalls, levees and other defenses against rising seas.
A sampling of cities around the world and what they are doing to prepare for the climatic forces that scientists say are being unleashed by global warming:
In the Netherlands, a country where two-thirds of the population lives below sea level, the battle against the sea has been a matter of life and death for centuries.
The Dutch government devotes roughly one percent of its annual budget to its intricate system of dikes, dunes and sea walls. Improvements to cope just with the effects of climate change have been carried out since 2003.
Current techniques embrace a philosophy of “living with water:” Floods are inevitable, and it’s better to prepare for them than to build ever-higher dikes that may fail catastrophically.
Sea level rise is a particular concern for Venice. It’s in the process of realizing an expensive and oft-delayed system of underwater barriers that would be raised in the event of flooding over 43 inches (110 centimeters), higher than the 31-inch (80-centimeter) level that floods the famed St. Mark’s Square.
Venice, a system of islands built into a shallow lagoon, is extremely vulnerable to rising seas because the sea floor is also sinking.
The constant flooding puts the city’s considerable architectural treasures at risk. Venice has experienced 10 events over 4 feet 7 inches (140 centimeters) since 1950, including a devastating 1966 flood. Plans for the new so-called Moses barriers will cost more than 4 billion euros. The first of these have been moved into place in recent days. Many Venetians remain skeptical of the project due to the high costs and concerns over environmental risks.
The low-lying capital of a perpetually soggy country, London has long been vulnerable to flooding – particularly when powerful storms send seawater racing up the River Thames. But Londoners already have a powerful flood defense: the 570-yard-long (half-a-kilometer-long) Thames Barrier, composed of 10 massive steel gates, each five stories high when raised against high water.
Meanwhile, environmentally conscious Londoners have made plans to battle some of the other predicted effects of global warming by promoting better water management, expanding the city’s Victorian sewage network, and “urban greening” – the planting of trees and rooftop gardens to help manage the urban heat island effect.
There are many more examples of cities preparing for floods. In fact, many of the cities of the world are prone to flooding. What is different between these and our Manila is that our Manila mayors have always relied on the National government to resolve their flooding problems. Here’s hoping that incoming Mayor Erap will have a workable plan that both the national government and the LGU can do together to rid Manila of its floods.
London, New York, Miami and other famous cities would have Manila-size floods too, if their mayors never did anything about it. It’s about time that we have a City Hall that worked for Manila.
(A report from the Associated Press was the basis for this column.)
***
Readers who missed a column can access www.duckyparedes.com/blogs. This is updated daily. Your reactions are welcome at duckyparedes@gmail.com or you can send me a message through Twitter @diretsahan.
No comments:
Post a Comment