Arms race in the Indo-Pacific region

PerryScope
By Perry Diaz

China’s devil tongue

With the increasingly aggressive behavior of China in claiming 80% of South China Sea and part of East China Sea, China’s neighbors are arming themselves and banding together to deter Chinese expansionism. China began grabbing islands in 1974 when she attacked Vietnamese naval forces in the Paracel Islands (called Xisha Islands by China) on January 19, 1974. On that fateful day, China’s superior naval forces defeated the Vietnamese forces and the Paracel Islands have since been under Chinese control.

Fast forward… In 2012, China had made a quantum leap in grabbing islands – piece by piece — in the South China Sea. That year, China tricked the Philippines into withdrawing a naval vessel and several fishing boats from Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal with the promise that she would withdraw her own forces, too. But as soon as the Philippine vessels were withdrawn, China cordoned off the only opening to the shoal.

Following the de facto occupation of the Scarborough Shoal, China claimed another Philippine territory, Macclesfield Bank. And then a few weeks ago, China was poised to grab Ayungin Shoal in the Spratly archipelago.

With China increasing her military budget from US$106.4 billion in 2012 to US$219 billion in 2013, an arms race is triggered in the Indo-Pacific region. Indeed, the specter of a shooting war with China sends a shudder down the spines of the leaders of several Asian countries.

Arms race

Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands

Japan – Although the U.S.-Japan Treaty binds the U.S. to come to the aid of Japan in the event of an external aggression, Japan is not taking any chances. Despite Japan’s pacifist constitution, Japan has built one of the strongest navies in the world. In recent years, she increased her military spending due to her territorial dispute with China over sovereignty of the Senkaku islands (Diaoyu to China), which Japan administers. China’s constant intrusion into the waters around the eight uninhabited islands and islets is worrisome.

Taiwan — Under constant threat from Chinese invasion, Taiwan is armed to the hilt. In 2010, the U.S. completed a $6.4-billion weapons deal with Taiwan that included 200 advanced Patriot anti-ballistic missiles. Recently, the U.S. also provided Taiwan with eight frigates equipped with the Aegis Combat system, which has the capacity to launch ship-based interceptor missiles. In addition, Taiwan has a network of 22 missile sites around the country.

Currently, Taiwan has four World War II-era submarines. In 2001, the U.S. approved the sale of eight conventional submarines to Taiwan. However, the U.S. had stopped building conventional submarines since the 1960s. Recently, Taiwan announced a plan to study the construction of indigenous submarines to deal with the delay.

Last June 14, it was reported in the news that U.S. Rep. Robert Andrews – a strong Taiwan supporter – wrote a letter to Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel asking “the administration to find ways to support Taiwan’s acquisition of diesel electric submarines, including export control considerations for technical assistance and other export licensing in support of a Taiwan submarine program.”  Taiwan’s defense budget this year is US$10.5 billion.

Artist’s rendition of future Cam Ranh Naval Base

Vietnam – With recent incidents in the South China Sea about Chinese warships harassing or firing at Vietnamese fishing boats, Vietnam is busy building her navy. Recently, it was announced that Vietnam is acquiring two submarines from Russia. The two diesel-electric Kilo-class submarines will be turned over to Vietnam in September under Vietnam’s $2-billion Project 635.

Singapore – With Singapore strategically located at the narrowest point of the 500-mile Strait of Malacca; she is in a position to control

the traffic in the strait. Singapore has 98 American-made F-15 and

USS Freedom

F-16 fighters armed with the latest Sidewinder air-to-air missiles.

Singapore’s navy consists of six frigates, six corvettes, six submarines, 24 patrol boats, and numerous types of support vessels. Recently, the U.S. deployed the USS Freedom — the first of a new class of warships called Littoral Combat Ship — to Singapore’s Changi Naval Base, which is situated at the 1.7-mile wide chokepoint at the south end of the Strait of Malacca going to the South China Sea.

India – Sharing a long border with China, India is wary of Chinese intrusion into Indian territory. With the sighting of more than 20 Chinese submarines in the Indian Ocean in the past year, India is rapidly expanding her navy to deal with China’s increasing presence in the Indian Ocean. Currently, she has one aircraft carrier that she purchased from the United Kingdom. She also bought a refurbished Russian aircraft carrier, which will be delivered in December. And she is also building two indigenous aircraft carriers.

India needs at least 24 conventional submarines to deter China on her east coast and Pakistan on her west coast. She has currently 14 conventional submarines; however, only half are available for deployment. Six submarines have been ordered and will be delivered in 2016.

Strategic alliances

Manmohan Singh and Shinzo Abe

In 2012, the defense ministers of the U.S., Australia, and Japan met at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Their joint statement said that they agreed to “develop and implement an action plan that promotes a strong, dynamic and flexible trilateral defense relationship over the remainder of this decade to enhance the security and prosperity of the region.” The Trilateral Security and Defense Cooperation Forum began at senior officials level in 2002 and progressed to ministerial levels in 2007.

Recently, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Japan bore fruit. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and he signed several major infrastructure and defense-technology deals, and agreed to speed up dialogue on nuclear cooperation and conduct more joint naval exercises.

A week later, Indian Defense Minister A.K. Antony and his Australian counterpart, Stephen Smith, met in Canberra where they agreed to strengthen their military ties and also to conduct joint naval exercises.

Indian Navy Eastern Fleet

At about the same time, India deployed a fleet of four warships to the South China Sea where they visited Malaysia and Vietnam. The fleet’s next stop – the Philippines.

India’s strategic importance to maintaining the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region cannot be ignored now that the U.S. is rebalancing her interests from Europe and the Middle East toward Asia. Simply said, the U.S. needs nuclear-armed India to play a key role in the Indo-Pacific region.

Add to the equation the alliances that the U.S. has with Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore, Philippines, and to some extent, Vietnam, it would create a formidable force that would make China think twice before embarking on a land-grabbing expedition.

With the arms race in the Indo-Pacific region going on, a de facto Cold War exists. But like the old Cold War, the new Cold War keeps the balance of power and prevents erratic behavior by any country that nurtures expansionist dreams.

As the popular saying goes, “The best defense is a good offense.” It prevented a nuclear war between the U.S. and the Soviet Union from erupting during the Cold War. Would an arms race prevent war between China and the U.S. and her allies in the Indo-Pacific region or would it fuel the engine of war?

(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)