Industrialization and Overpopulation

By Eduardo “Danding” Gimenez

Philippine agriculture is in such a dismal state because of overpopulation and because of the fact it is an archipelago frequently buffeted by typhoons.

This is just a surface statement that has a whole universe underneath it. Philippine land usage for agriculture and animal husbandry is nearly maxed-out. In fact creeping salinization is eroding arable land, and repeated flooding is washing away top soil. Much of the forest stands have been over-logged or burned for subsistence farming.

The Philippines now imports 3 million tons of rice a year. It is the world’s largest importer of rice… at a time when grain prices are rising because of competition between food and energy for so much of the world’s grain harvest. At its present rate of growth there will not be enough available exportable rice to feed the Philippines.

The Philippines grows around 16 million tons of rice a year. This has been relatively constant over decades. What varies is how much rice is imported. It’s at 3 million tons and will be at 10 million tons before too long. This is an unsustainable number given the rising cost. It can no longer grow miracle rice because of soil impoverishment, except in a few farms where the farmer can afford expensive fertilizers.

No matter where one looks in the Philippine scene, it is hard to find bright spots anywhere in any horizon. Global warming and rising sea levels will make things much worse. The fact it is an archipelago provides another important problem. Whenever there is civil strife, borders provide a relief valve where people can cross and flee to safety. The Philippines doesn’t have that relief valve and any such strife must be contained within its small confined area and will have the potential to go into immense savagery.

In fact the only real solution for the Philippines is for it to follow China’s 1-child per woman rule. Of course this will never happen.

For those who think finding oil is the answer, think again. I was on a flight to London last week and my seatmate was a 3-star Nigerian General. He related how much of a curse finding oil has been to his country. It’s now a fracturing nation, and powerful interests from the developed countries are overwhelming all the internal power-brokers with their control games for rights to steal the oil. Very little of that wealth filters to the populace. “We were a much better nation before oil”.

Keep Philippine money in the Philippines and force it to invest in industry. Shoot anyone who salts dollars abroad. The Koreans did that with great success. That is the second part to the solution. The third part is tax the church and strictly enforce a separation between church and state.