Quo Vadis, Chiz?

PerryScope
by Perry Diaz

On October 28, 2009, Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero dropped a bombshell when he announced that he was bolting the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC). It was stunning and unexpected. He was supposed to make his presidential bid official but instead he said that he is still undecided on what to do next.

However, his campaign manager, Lito Banayo, said: “He was running as himself, not as one bound by the party’s interests. He did not want to be ‘chained’ to party interests, and in an unusually bold statement, virtually made a declaration of independence from party politics, and embraced ‘people politics’. One who desires the presidency, he said, must forswear narrow party interests in favour of the larger interest of people and nation. In Pilipino, he was saying, ‘the people must be one’s party’.”

Banayo further said: “It was a ‘revolt’ against the political system we have become accustomed to, one where the landed elite, the billionaire class, the oligarchy always held sway. It was a polity dominated by economic interests of the few who ‘own’ the wealth of the nation, not always to the long-lasting benefit of the many, the teeming many, who own so little.”

Chiz says it all when he declared: “Hindi ako heredero, hindi ako haciendero, at lalong hindi ako bilyonaryo.” (I am not an heir, I am not a plantation landlord, and most of all I am not a billionaire). It was a defiant declaration of independence from the political warlords, oligarchs, and kingmakers. It was like the “Cry of Balintawak” of 1896 when Andres Bonifacio and his fellow “katipuneros” tore their “cedulas” (residence certificates) in a bold act of rebellion against the corrupt Spanish colonial masters.

The only difference is: Chiz is alone. But for how long? Would he be able to inspire the people who are sick and tired of the corrupt political system controlled by the powerful oligarchs? Or is he just a drift in the air densely polluted with the stench of a decadent socio-political culture?

Are the people content with just being on a “survival mode,” where just being alive is in itself… considered a “success”? Do people see politicians as “birds of the same feather” and corrupt to the bone? It is not uncommon to hear people say, “they’re all corrupt, I might as well get the most of what they would give me.” In other words, they would accept money from politicians who will buy their votes. But worst of all, it’s an acceptance of the notion that the status quo is irreversible… and beyond redemption.

It is interesting to note that Rep. Jack Duavit, NPC secretary general, said prior the Chiz’s resignation, “We have more than enough funds for nationwide campaign political ads,” he said, “but what we do not have are funds to buy votes.” Somebody finally admitted that “vote buying” is necessary to win elections. It came as no surprise then that one of the reasons mentioned about Chiz’s departure from NPC is that Danding Cojuangco — the founder and power behind NPC — was hesitant to fund Chiz’s campaign, which would require at least P2 billion to bankroll. And without a war chest of that size, Chiz wouldn’t be able to compete with billionaire Manny Villar, Gilberto “Gibo” Teodoro who is backed by Gloria’s money-loaded administration party, and Noynoy Aquino whose wealthy family wouldn’t have any problem funding his campaign.

The media is abound with rumors that Danding is about to support either one of his two nephews — Gibo and Noynoy. Chiz probably was aware of that and beat Danding to the punch by bolting NPC. Had Danding beat Chiz to the punch first, that would have been a devastating knock-out blow for Chiz. And that would have ended Chiz’s presidential ambitions next year.

Now that Chiz has the upper hand — albeit lacking the financial means to wage an effective presidential campaign — what is he going to do now? Quo vadis, Chiz?

What are his options? If Chiz were going to run for president, he would have to bite the bullet and file his certificate of candidacy as an independent presidential candidate, unless he can muster enough support to form a political party or join an existing party. With barely a month left to file his certificate of candidacy, Chiz is under the gun to make his move. But he needs a campaign machine and a war chest. He doesn’t have both.

His second option is to run for vice president as the running mate of Villar or Teodoro. However, to do so would invite criticisms — and ruin his credibility — because he had made statements not too long ago that he’ll remain in the opposition; thus, eliminating any team up with Gibo. He also said that “there was zero probability of him teaming up with Villar due to the C-5 double funding controversy the former Senate president was embroiled in.” This option is out.

His third option is not to run for higher office and instead serve out his remaining three years in the Senate. This would give him time to build a political party — or a movement — to pursue the reforms he wants. He can then run for re-election as senator in 2013 under his new party, together with a full slate of reform-minded senatorial candidates, congressional candidates, and candidates for local offices. Then he can run for president in 2016 as the “people’s candidate.” But can he wait?

I mentioned “people’s candidate” because there is likelihood that the other presidential candidates, with the exception of Estrada, would be backed by the establishment including the powerful oligarchs who would get behind Manny, Gibo, and Noynoy. I mentioned Noynoy because should his uncle Danding decide to support him instead of his cousin Gibo, then Noynoy’s “reformist” agenda could easily fall to pieces.

It is very likely then that the next administration would be no different — if not worse — from the Arroyo administration. And it could also be that Gloria and virtually all of the country’s wealthy and powerful oligarchs would continue to control the political system. If so, it could set the country back 40 years.

What the country needs today is someone who would step up to the plate, resist pressure from the oligarchs, and institute true reforms in governance. And who would that person be: Chiz or Noynoy… or none?

The next couple of weeks should provide us an insight on where Chiz and Noynoy are going. And it would all depend on who’s going to get behind them.

(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)