by Perry Diaz
A series of unexpected events in the past several years have caused disruptions in the way President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo wanted things to happen. And now Gloria is faced with a dilemma. What’s her game plan?
In my article, “Judicial Independence” (November 2006), I wrote: “The recent decision of the Philippine Supreme Court to dismiss the petition for a people’s initiative to amend the constitution to replace the presidential system with a parliamentary form of government has created a political storm. With a bare 8-7 majority, the decision penned by Associate Justice Antonio T. Carpio caught a lot of people by surprise. People close to President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo were expecting the Supreme Court to vote in favor of the petition by at least a 9-6 majority.” It was a devastating setback for Gloria.
Had the Supreme Court voted in favor of the “people’s initiative,” Gloria would have been the country’s Prime Minister by now with an open-ended term of office. That is, as long as her political allies in Parliament would support her, she’d remain in power… indefinitely.
But having failed in her first attempt to stay in power beyond her presidential term, Gloria pursued other avenues to perpetuate herself in power. On February 24, 2006, on the eve of the anniversary of the “People Power” revolution of 1986, Gloria declared a “state of national emergency.” She banned all rallies and public gatherings. Her government seized TV networks, radio stations, and news media. All electronic mail and Internet communications were “frozen.” And she rounded up the “usual suspects” including leaders of left-wing and communist organizations. It was a anti-communist witch-hunt similar to the events preceding the declaration of martial law by Marcos in 1972. However, many people believed that her real reason was to prevent a massive demonstration the following day which could trigger another “People Power” revolution… and topple her. A week later, on March 3, Gloria lifted the “state of emergency,” but only after instituting repressive measures.
On August 13, 2009, a Philippine Daily Inquirer article said: “On July 9, Pangasinan Rep. Jose de Venecia told the Rotary Club of Manila that President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo could declare martial law should the campaign for Charter change fail.” De Venecia was quoted as saying, “If they are unable to get the three-fourths vote necessary to amend the Constitution, their … fallback position is to declare martial law.” He also said that the plan to declare martial law was “was broached in 2005 at the height of the national crisis triggered by the ‘Hello Garci’ election fraud scandal.” De Venecia at that time was Gloria’s most trusted ally in Congress. They did a lot of things together.
The same article also mentioned that on July 22, former Defense Secretary Avelino Cruz, speaking before the Integrated Bar of the Philippines, said that De Venecia indeed has “intimate knowledge of these events.” He was Gloria’s Secretary of Defense from 2004 to 2006 so he would have been privy to it.
On the same day, August 13, 2009, former Ambassador to the U.S. Albert Del Rosario (2001-2006) wrote an article in the Philippine Daily Inquirer, to wit: “It was in 2005 during the ‘Hello Garci’ controversy that the then Speaker of the House, Jose de Venecia Jr., came to Washington. He indicated that the Palace had empowered him to ask if we could defend for them the suspension of the writ of habeas corpus.”
Del Rosario said that he was taken aback and asked why. De Venecia responded that “it was to be used against certain members of the political opposition.” Del Rosario told De Venecia that “the plan was not defensible… and that we could not defend it.” In June 2006, Del Rosario was recalled from his post in Washington, DC. Evidently, Gloria had lost her confidence in Del Rosario as a “team player”; thus, the “recall” or “firing” as a lot of people believed.
After being rebuffed by her own ambassador to the U.S., Gloria tried another attempt to revive Charter change (Cha-cha). This time, her allies in the House of Representatives filed several House resolutions to either convene a Constituent Assembly (Con-Ass) or Constitutional Convention (Con-Con) to amend the constitution.
But first, Gloria had to consolidate her power in the House of Representatives with the merger of Lakas-CMD and Kampi into a “powerhouse” party. On May 28, 2009, the merger was achieved with Gloria as its Chairman. Gloria was ready to roll.
A few days later, in the late hours of June 2, 2009, the House of Representatives — by voice vote — railroaded the controversial House Resolution 1109 which calls on the House of Representatives to convene into a Constituent Assembly (Con-Ass) to amend the 1987 constitution without Senate participation. This time, Gloria couldn’t go wrong with her virtual absolute control of the House of Representatives. Finally, her ultimate goal was within reach.
But once again, Gloria’s attempt to change the constitution was thwarted when former President Cory Aquino passed away on August 1, 2009. In 1987, Cory changed the constitution to make sure that martial law will not happen again. The 1987 constitution is sometimes referred to as “Cory constitution.” It did not come as surprise then that Cory made a wish prior to he death not to change the 1987 constitution. With her passing, the move by Gloria’s allies in House of Representatives to pursue Cha-cha disintegrated.
With Cha-cha derailed, Gloria’s allies pursued another avenue — they’re pushing her to run for Congress. However, some people believe that Gloria’s plan to run for Congress had been in the works for sometime as a contingency plan in the event that all of her options — except martial law — were no longer doable. As an indication that Gloria was preparing to run for a congressional seat, Gloria has visited her district — doling out “goodies” — at least 47 times this year.
In my article, “Gloria’s Gambit” (May 2009), I wrote: “As a congresswoman, Gloria could easily muster enough support to become the Speaker of the House. She could then maneuver to pass a resolution to convene a Constituent Assembly (Con-ass) or Constitutional Convention (Con-con) to amend the constitution to adopt a parliamentary form of government.” Now, it seems like that’s her only viable option to regain power after her presidency ends in June 2010.
Lately, rumors started circulating that Gloria is going to run for vice president. But what would she gain by becoming vice president? I doubt if she would even win. As each day passes, Gloria’s game plan becomes clearer.
The deadline for filing her certificate of candidacy is December 1, 2009. If, for any reason, Gloria will not run for Congress or vice president, she will have two options left — retire from politics or stay in power by all means. Which one will it be?
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