POSTSCRIPT
By Federico D. Pascual Jr.
The Philippine Star
BIT BY BIT: Another Philippine area has been taken over by the Chinese. After occupying our Panatag (Scarborough) shoal off Zambales, China has also added Ayungin reef near Palawan to its growing control list of Philippine isles and fishing grounds.
We are losing territory bit by bit to China — and there is not much we can do about it, except to complain to the four winds.
It may sound absurd, but pursuing the logic of occupation and extension, China might even proceed now to measure its 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone eastward from Panatag near Masinloc, Zambales, and be able to claim Luzon!
With the demonstrated absence of effective resistance to Chinese expansionism, this apparent absurdity could become reality.
Located 105.77 nautical miles from Palawan, Ayungin is part of the Philippine continental shelf under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Just days ago, China also dispatched a fleet to the Spratlys group, some of whose isles have thriving Filipino communities. This was after it took control of Panatag shoal, roped off the atoll there and went on to shoo away Filipino fishermen.
After these open and provocative encroachments, all that the Philippine government did was complain. The Department of Foreign Affairs simply handed the Chinese embassy a note of protest, end of story.
A case has been filed also with the United Nations for China’s earlier violations of the UNCLOS. But Beijing has announced it will not be engaged in that forum and presumably will not heed any adverse ruling.
As we have been asking, what else can this weak country with a weak leadership do?
Our inability to defend territory despite the bravado and press releases adds loss of face to loss of territory.
We have been waiting for our President to tell us what we shall do as a nation in the face of this continuing external threat.
Mr. President, Sir, since we cannot match our words with action, should we stop issuing warnings that we cannot enforce? Do we just swallow our pride as bits of our Bayang Magiliw are bitten off by the rampaging Chinese dragon?
As former Chief Justice Artemio V. Panganiban and several election lawyers have pointed out with convincing clarity, proclamation must be based on a sufficient number of votes canvassed, not on extrapolation of the partial early count.
At the time the Comelec sitting as the national board of canvassers proclaimed the first six senators-elect, only a third of the total votes cast had been canvassed. This small number was clearly not enough to conclude that any of the candidates had won.
Of what use are the casting and counting of votes if winners are to be proclaimed on the basis of mere projections? The Comelec’s unusual action has raised the question: Why are Brillantes & Co. in such a hurry?
This has raised speculations, including the possibility that the commissioners were afraid that the truth (or the true count) might catch up on them before projected or programmed winners are proclaimed.
What if the final tally eventually shows that the 12 senators-elect who had been proclaimed are the true winners? But that assumes that the completed canvassing is an honest reflection of the vote.
There are mathematical calculations based on the stop-and-go canvass showing that at every stage or interval there was a consistent 60:30:10 ratio of votes reported, respectively, for Team PNoy, United Nationalist Alliance and other senatorial candidates.
He cited data indicating that “the election results showed a consistent votes share pattern of 55 percent-to-45 percent in three towns and 60 percent-to-40 percent in three other towns in favor of my opponent, Herminia Roman.”
“We find this statistically improbable, if not impossible!,” he said. “On the Bayes Theorem System, the chances it will happen are only .003 percent. But it happened! This was based on the voters’ turnout, a surprising 84 percent when previous elections registered only 60-63 percent!”
http://www.philstar.com/opinion/2013/05/23/945336/loss-face-added-loss-territory
BIT BY BIT: Another Philippine area has been taken over by the Chinese. After occupying our Panatag (Scarborough) shoal off Zambales, China has also added Ayungin reef near Palawan to its growing control list of Philippine isles and fishing grounds.
We are losing territory bit by bit to China — and there is not much we can do about it, except to complain to the four winds.
It may sound absurd, but pursuing the logic of occupation and extension, China might even proceed now to measure its 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone eastward from Panatag near Masinloc, Zambales, and be able to claim Luzon!
With the demonstrated absence of effective resistance to Chinese expansionism, this apparent absurdity could become reality.
* * *
BRAVE WORDS: After President Noynoy Aquino served
notice to the world in a speech before the Navy’s assembled forces that
“what is ours is ours” and that we would fight to keep every inch of
territory, the foreign office announced that China had occupied Ayungin.Located 105.77 nautical miles from Palawan, Ayungin is part of the Philippine continental shelf under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Just days ago, China also dispatched a fleet to the Spratlys group, some of whose isles have thriving Filipino communities. This was after it took control of Panatag shoal, roped off the atoll there and went on to shoo away Filipino fishermen.
* * *
PHL PROTEST: Chinese fishing fleets operating with
impunity in disputed areas in the West Philippine Sea are often
accompanied by naval vessels flying China’s red flag.After these open and provocative encroachments, all that the Philippine government did was complain. The Department of Foreign Affairs simply handed the Chinese embassy a note of protest, end of story.
A case has been filed also with the United Nations for China’s earlier violations of the UNCLOS. But Beijing has announced it will not be engaged in that forum and presumably will not heed any adverse ruling.
As we have been asking, what else can this weak country with a weak leadership do?
* * *
LOSS OF FACE: Despite the ringing warning of
President Aquino to trespassers, the Commander-in-Chief and the armed
forces have been unable to deter or repel encroachment. And once an
island is occupied, we are unable to drive away the intruders.Our inability to defend territory despite the bravado and press releases adds loss of face to loss of territory.
We have been waiting for our President to tell us what we shall do as a nation in the face of this continuing external threat.
Mr. President, Sir, since we cannot match our words with action, should we stop issuing warnings that we cannot enforce? Do we just swallow our pride as bits of our Bayang Magiliw are bitten off by the rampaging Chinese dragon?
* * *
FORECASTING BUSINESS: On the raging debate over the
piecemeal and premature, probably even illegal, proclamation of winners
in the May 13 senatorial election, it has to be pointed out that the
Commission on Elections is not in the business of political forecasting.As former Chief Justice Artemio V. Panganiban and several election lawyers have pointed out with convincing clarity, proclamation must be based on a sufficient number of votes canvassed, not on extrapolation of the partial early count.
At the time the Comelec sitting as the national board of canvassers proclaimed the first six senators-elect, only a third of the total votes cast had been canvassed. This small number was clearly not enough to conclude that any of the candidates had won.
* * *
PATTERN NOTED: Comelec Chairman Sixto Brillantes
Jr. weakened his position when he said that their proclamation was based
on estimates or projections culled from early grouped canvass reports.Of what use are the casting and counting of votes if winners are to be proclaimed on the basis of mere projections? The Comelec’s unusual action has raised the question: Why are Brillantes & Co. in such a hurry?
This has raised speculations, including the possibility that the commissioners were afraid that the truth (or the true count) might catch up on them before projected or programmed winners are proclaimed.
What if the final tally eventually shows that the 12 senators-elect who had been proclaimed are the true winners? But that assumes that the completed canvassing is an honest reflection of the vote.
There are mathematical calculations based on the stop-and-go canvass showing that at every stage or interval there was a consistent 60:30:10 ratio of votes reported, respectively, for Team PNoy, United Nationalist Alliance and other senatorial candidates.
* * *
PROTEST: Noticing a similar “pre-programmed”
pattern of the votes canvassed in his province, Bataan’s Felicito C.
Payumo, losing congressional candidate in the first district, said he
was filing an electoral protest.He cited data indicating that “the election results showed a consistent votes share pattern of 55 percent-to-45 percent in three towns and 60 percent-to-40 percent in three other towns in favor of my opponent, Herminia Roman.”
“We find this statistically improbable, if not impossible!,” he said. “On the Bayes Theorem System, the chances it will happen are only .003 percent. But it happened! This was based on the voters’ turnout, a surprising 84 percent when previous elections registered only 60-63 percent!”
* * *
BALITAAN: Members of the Capampangan in Media Inc.
(CAMI) are invited to the initial “Balitaan” tomorrow at the Bale
Balita (House of News) at Clark Freeport in Pampanga. The informal
breakfast forum will start 8:30 a.m. and end promptly at 10:30 a.m.
For more details, contact Dik Pascual, fdp333@yahoo.com.
* * *
RESEARCH: Access past POSTSCRIPTs at manilamail.com. Follow us via Twitter.com/@FDPascual. Send feedback to fdp333@yahoo.comhttp://www.philstar.com/opinion/2013/05/23/945336/loss-face-added-loss-territory
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