What If the Elections Failed?

PerryScope
by Perry Diaz

As we get closer to May 10, 2010, the people’s fear is increasing dramatically. What they fear is that — which was unthinkable six months — the country would experience a tumultuous event that could bring the country back to an era that they had believed would not happen again.

The Commission on Elections (Comelec) has been trying very hard to allay fears that there will be no failure of elections. Actually, Comelec officials are so confident that they’re saying they will complete the final canvassing in six days! They’re saying that by May 15, the newly elected president, vice president, and 12 senators will be proclaimed.

Comelec Chairman Jose Melo said, “The scenario of no proclamation, the nationwide failure of elections—these are just apocalyptic predictions. These apprehensions are not helping. We should all calm down and soon, we will see that our objectives will be attained.”

Melo has to be commended for his optimism; however, there are experts in the automation industry who don’t share his optimism. One of them is Manuel “Mano” Alcuaz Jr., the President of Systems Sciences Consult Inc. He said in his recent article – “Can we trust Comelec?” — “I wish the answer were yes but Comelec’s behavior in 2004, 2007, and in preparation for the coming elections give me cause to worry about what will happen in May 2010. I hope and pray that I am wrong.”

Automated cheating

Alcuaz said that the Smartmatic Automated Election System (AES) has no transparency. “It is very secure against hacking by outsiders, but has no safeguards against an inside job!”

According to Alcuaz, the first risk is related to the Optical Mark Reading (OMR) ballot.
Since the candidates’ names were pre-printed on the ballot, all the voter has to do is to mark an oval in front of the candidates he or she is voting for. “This seems convenient for the voter,” Alcuaz said. He said, however, that “it is also convenient for the vote buyers. They can quickly mark the ballots of someone who has sold his vote. Near the end of the day, in a precinct controlled by a warlord, all unused ballots can be quickly marked and fed into the PCOS (Precinct Count Optical Scan) machine. How does someone file a protest? Difficult. With handwritten ballots one can identify common handwriting of names. How do you identify common shading?”

“The real danger in the PCOS machine,” Alcuaz said, “is in the formula that is used to add up the votes read when the ballots are scanned. The various parties could demand to see the formulas of the 1,600 + municipalities or congressional districts. But how can you be sure that the proper formulas will be loaded in all 82,000 PCOS machines?” Comelec has refused to disclose the formulas that are programmed into the PCOS machines. Why the secrecy?

“We are faced with the danger that by May 15, 2010 a new president, vice president, and 12 senators may be proclaimed,” Alcuaz warned. “But they may not be the ones the people voted for. They could be the ones that Comelec and or Smartmatic insiders cheated for!”

Alcuaz’s assessment of AES raises a lot of red flags that the 2010 elections could be a repeat of the massive cheatings in 2004 and 2007. But assuming that AES is going to perform without being tampered, there is another danger that could lead to a total breakdown of the elections.

What if the elections failed?

It was reported last January 26, 2010 that Comelec “is not closing its door to manual elections should the Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines fail.” Melo said that they “have all the things they need to carry out backup plans for conducting manual elections in areas where the PCOS might fail.” For the first time, the specter of failure of elections was voiced out by the Comelec chairman himself. Within a few days, Melo’s unqualified optimism was transformed to guarded pessimism. Finally, he has come to terms with reality.

Should Comelec have to go to manual elections in the event the automated elections fail, to accomplish this, Comelec has to print two sets of ballots (50 million for each set), one for automated elections and the other for manual elections. However, this could be a recipe for confusion and could open a wide window of opportunity to some candidates to commit fraud.

In the high-tech industry, Murphy’s Law is the most feared. Murphy’s Law says that “Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.” And it could go wrong when it’s least expected and more often when implementing a brand new automated system such as the AES. And if the implementors don’t have a contingency plan — or backup system — that will work, the outcome is chaos and breakdown. What then?

State of emergency or martial law

The failure of elections could only lead to one thing: state of emergency or martial law. Recent actions by the Comelec — (1) deputizing the military as Comelec personnel, and (2) not disarming the Civilian Armed Forces Geographical Units (CAFGUs) — have put in place all the key elements of implementing state of emergency or martial law, ready to go into action at a moment’s notice.

It is interesting to note that CAFGU units that were farmed out to the Ampatuan clan were involved in the Maguindanao massacre. It is also common knowledge that CAFGU units were being used by political warlords in the pretext of enforcing peace and order in their turfs. But what would prevent them from being used to make sure that their warlords win in the elections? Isn’t that what happened in Maguindanao in 2004 and 2007?

A few days ago, it was reported that former Cabinet members warned of an “orchestrated attempt to make the coming elections fail to pave the way for an extended term of President Arroyo.” With all the strange things that have been happening lately, their apprehension is not without basis.

People power?

In a survey conducted by SWS on October 24-27, 2009, about half (49%) of adults sense that “people power” will happen if the 2010 elections failed. The survey also found that 47% fear the PCOS machines are vulnerable to sabotage.

The survey should serve as a warning to President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and her appointees in the Comelec that the people aren’t going to allow another dictatorship to emerge. For the sake of the country, Arroyo should — nay, must! — step down at the end of her term and ensure a peaceful and fraud-free elections.

(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)