Money, Magic and Math

by Dean De la Paz
from Filipino Voices

http://filipinovoices.com/money-magic-and-math

Three had gotten on stage and together chorused misgivings on even the most credible survey results. A frontrunner whose lead had been whittled to nearly nothing declared surveys can be bought in Quiapo. Another filed a bill declaring political polling illegal. Among the candidates who trash political polling we might find one or all of the following characteristics that indicate a correlation among three aspects of Philippine politics.

One, they are mostly bottom-dwellers.

Two, they are relatively short of funds, a measurable financial condition indicative of campaigning capacity and related to poll results. These candidates are thus resigned to criticizing traditional paradigms that compel greater spending to reverse polling data.

Three, they deliberately ignore the concepts of statistics, fear numbers or are numerically challenged and retreat from the arithmetic.

Never mind that statistics is apolitical per se and simply a process of bean-counting used as a decision-making tool. Statistics neither replaces a count much less the electoral exercise, nor does it pretend to. To ascribe to surveys such is ludicrous.

In debunking poll statistics, there is an implicit admission of an interactive correlation among rankings, money and forecasting. This reveals political realities worth analyzing and which demand a moral and financial imperative more profound than the simplistic anti-survey and anti-money sound bytes spun by bottom-dwellers.

First we must take the non-conspiratorial route and assume regularity absent of damning evidence. Poll results are not pre-fashioned by sponsors nor are surveys conducted under different assumptions and respondent bases related to one another. It is unfortunate specters are created where there are none. Surveys are simply decision-making tools.

When presidential candidate Benigno Aquino attained a 66% rating at the onset, statistically there was no other direction this could go but south. This is arithmetic. It has nothing to do with the candidate’s competence or his campaign.

At 66% Aquino approximates the historic voter turn-out and would thus be bumping against the mathematical ceiling. Moreover, the options had not yet then been cleaned out of candidates who slip out or jump in thus altering margins among those rated.

The third aspect of the 66% lead was that Sen. Manuel Villar’s rating came in second but was statistically within striking range when we consider the ratings of those below him. Netting out those rabidly in the counterparties, with consolidation and realignments, Villar’s early rating would bring him within Aquino’s given statistical margins of error for Luzon-only polls with a 1,500 respondent base.

The fourth aspect was the girth of the margins of error. Aquino’s early 66% rating was not a nationwide result. Recent polls used nationwide respondent bases of as much as 5,000. At the previous level the margins of error were around 5%. Updated surveys which make for better decision-making have margins of much less, some at 2%.

Finally, Aquino’s 66% rating was partly comprised of “Cory Magic” – a factor many expected might sustain and complement his inherent merits.

Aquino’s inherent merits should kick in as the “magic” is properly factored-in, or, down the wire, his formerly unknown variables should enhance the “magic” further.

But both “magic’ for Aquino and demolition jobs on Villar seem to be bubbles. The recent polls indicating a statistical tie between Aquino and Villar are significant.

One, respondent bases were increased and margins of error were reduced. Two, “magic” and smear jobs now form part of the equation. Three, more is known of Aquino and Villar where their inherent merits and platform should comprise the candidate in place of early pre-factored-in persona, “magic”, halos, demonization, spin or imagery.

That the dead-heat comes precisely when official campaigning rules and financing limits kick-in should theoretically level the playing field compelling Aquino and Villar to contend based on residual merits. For Aquino and Villar, this involves inherent competence and platform.

As for the rest, because mathematical reality is not on their side, they may have to rely on fraud, more money and a machinery to carry out that fraud. Votes committed to Villar and Aquino will not fall to the third or fourth-ranked. It’s simply math.

Arithmetically, even when statistics are combined through realignments or cannibalization among bottom-dwellers, including throwing in the historically undecided, nothing can legitimately bring losers within a light year of Aquino and Villar. This explains the rationale behind the underhanded albeit ludicrous concept of secret Gloria Arroyo presidential candidates spun and spread to cannibalize between the top two.

According to the numbers, this is a two-way contest. That compels a financial decision on those correctly viewing polling as a management tool. Because surveys substantially affect campaign financing, as in cockfighting, donors place money on winners and not on statistically hopeless bottom-scrapers.

But for those with unlimited resources, unless one controls the state’s purse strings, supporters who paint urban infrastructure cat-vomit green should stop wasting our tax money on mathematical impossibility.