Contemplating 2010

By Antonio C. Abaya
Standard Today
February 18, 2009

The latest public opinion surveys that I have seen, from the Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia, seem to validate each other, namely that the 2010 presidential elections will largely be between five or six individuals.
 
The SWS survey, conducted from November 28 and December 1, showed Vice-President Noli de Castro getting the nod of 31 percent of respondents as “the best leader to succeed President Arroyo in 2010.” Senators Loren Legarda and Manny Villar trailed him in second and third places, with 28 and 27 percent respectively.
 
Senator Francis Escudero was in fourth place with 19 percent, followed by Senator Panfilo Lacson (14 percent), former President Joseph Estrada (11 percent) and Senator Mar Roxas (10 percent).
 
Others were: Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay  and MMDA Chair Bayani Fernando (both at 2 percent each); Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago,  Senator Francis Pangilinan, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, Batangas Governor Vilma Santos, Sen. Ralph Recto, Senator Antonio Trillanes IV and Sen. Juan Miguel Zubiri (one percent each).
 
Seven percent of respondents could not give an answer, and 12 percent had no one to recommend. (What’s the difference?)
 
In the Pulse Asia survey, conducted from October 14 to 27, 2008, Sen. Escudero and Sen.Legarda enjoyed “big trust” from the respondents, followed by Sen. Roxas (67 percent), Sen. Villar (59), Sen. Lacson (51), Mayor Binay  (45), ex-president Estrada (48),  VP De Castro (48),  Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap (29), Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno (29), House Speaker Prospero Nograles (22), etc…
 
Strictly speaking, the Pulse Asia survey was not a presidential survey. It was further made unnecessarily complicated by inserting the element of “small trust” as opposed to “big trust.” I hope the next Pulse Asia survey will be more straightforward and ask the simple question asked by SWS: “who is the best leader to succeed President Arroyo?”
 
At this stage, 15 months before the elections, the leading candidates are, in alphabetical order: De Castro, Escudero, Lacson, Legarda, Roxas, Villar, with Estrada and Sen. Richard Gordon as possible dark horses.
 
Jojo Binay and Bayani Fernando should follow the lead of Quezon City Mayor Sonny Belmonte and fold away their presidential tents. So should Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro and Evangelist Eddie Villanueva. They are simply not in the radar screen of most voters and pursuing the presidential goal any further would be a total waste of their time and money..
 
Legarda and Escudero are competing against each other for the presidential nomination of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) of Danding Cojuangco and his new silent business partners in the San Miguel Corp, rumored to be Mike and Gloria Arroyo. If and when this connection becomes public knowledge, as in time it will, their ratings are likely to drop significantly.
 
Noli de Castro has been the perennial top presidential contender in most surveys. But it has been recently revealed, and De Castro has admitted, that his campaign (for VP) in 2004 was financed by Businessman Celso de los Angeles, founder and chairman of the Legacy group of companies which have fallen from grace in recent months because of alleged questionable transactions. If and when the details of these transactions become public knowledge, as in time they will, Noli’s ratings are likely to drop significantly.
 
As for Manny Villar, his involvement in a questionable property that he bought in Paranaque has not been fully aired. For reasons of their own, media have not graphically shown the location of this property in relation to the proposed extension of the C-5 highway whose alignment was apparently changed to benefit the development of the new Villar property. A simple graphic comparison of the C-5 alignment, before and after Villar purchased said property, would tell at a glance if the man can be trusted with the highest office.
 
As for Erap Estrada, a convicted plunderer does not have the moral ascendancy to aspire for the presidency again, and certainly would not be eligible for that office in other, more morally upright societies. But then, of course, the Philippines is not a morally upright society, being the only country to contribute two (Marcos and Erap) – and possibly soon, a third (GMA) – entries in the List of the Ten Most Corrupt Leaders in the World in the Guinness Book of World Records.
 
The long and short of it is that Mar Roxas and Dick Gordon seem to have the least vulnerabilities among the current contenders, Panfilo Lacson being still shackled by the allegations against him by Victor Corpus and Mary Ong, all still unproven, as are his own allegations against Mike Arroyo and Jose Pidal.
 
The basic flaw in Roxas and Gordon may be that, like the other contenders, they have been in the political game far too long to create the excitement that the harried and hapless voters, especially among the jaded middle-class, are instinctively looking for to feel that their votes are going to make a difference in the creation of a New Philippines
 
There are many groups of concerned Filipinos, both here and abroad, trying their best to raise the level of political discourse, among them Harvey Keh’s Kaya Natin, out to field  senatorial candidates of unquestionable integrity and competence, and Nandy Pacheco’s Ang Kapatiran, focused on searching for the most selfless candidates for municipal councils nationwide
 
Perhaps it is too early in the game. Perhaps there really is a dearth of exciting presidential contenders. Perhaps there is just too much cynicism all around. Perhaps the feeling that this country is hopeless is afflicting more and more Filipinos as the Lakas-CMD and the Kampi continue their backroom maneuvers to keep President Arroyo in power beyond 2010, by hook or by crook, by fair means and foul.
 
But as we head for 2010, the Need of the Hour is for a visionary president who can excite the Filipinos and sweep them off their feet, as Ramon Magsaysay did in 1953, but with the intelligence and the political acumen to conceptualize, articulate and implement innovative modules of governance that will unleash their long dormant creative energies.
 
If our political system, because of its many inherent flaws, is incapable of finding such an individual, then we should seriously consider junking it and replacing it with a revolutionary transition for at least three years, so as to make possible a new and better system for choosing our leaders. *****
 
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