Are we staring into the abyss?
I was invited by Irene 'Inday' Santiago to be one of the speakers in a two-day forum organized by her Mindanao Commission on Women in Davao City last June. The topic assigned to me was "What the Country Faces in 2010."
Unable to fly to Davao, because I, a widower, had been committed to baby-sit my 8-month old granddaughter while all my three children were abroad, Inday decided to tape my speech here, for replay during the forum in Davao.
In that speech, I painted a worst case scenario and a best case scenario.
In the worst case scenario, I cited the then unabated increase in the prices of oil and food, and the possibility of a wider war in the Middle East as Israel and its neo-con allies in Washington DC, led by George W. Bush and VP Dick Cheney, bomb the nuclear facilities of Iran before the US presidential elections on November 4 (to present a possible liberal winner, Barack Obama, with a fait accompli that he would not be able to squeeze back into toothpaste tube.)
A wider war in the Middle East would force the return home of hundreds of thousands of Filipino contract workers as their employers cease or reduce operations..
I also cited that the inflation rate (9.6% at the time) would continue to rise. (It is now 12.2%, one month later, the highest in 17 years.) And the Bangko Sentral would not be able to do much to tame it because most of the pressures are external.
Then I added another element: "a resumption of the war in Mindanao and Sulu as radical elements in the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the Abu Sayyaf raise the ante by making demands on the Manila government that they know the Manila government cannot accede to…."
This triple whammy – a wider war in the Middle East, continued increase in the prices of oil and food, and a resumption of the war in Mindanao and Sulu – would stretch the resources of the Philippine government and would encourage calls for either martial law or a military takeover….
"President Arroyo would respond positively to a call for martial law, whether the causes are real or manufactured. It would be in keeping with her desire to remain in power beyond 2010. President Marcos used martial law in 1972 to remain in power, as his second non-extendable presidential term was about to expire in 1973……
I continued: "But there would also be the possibility of a military takeover on or before 2010, precisely to prevent President Arroyo from staying in power beyond 2010……
"In both scenarios – martial law by President Arroyo or military takeover, on or before 2010, Congress would be abolished, civil and political rights would be suspended, and there would be no presidential elections in 2010…"…..
In my best case scenario, there is no wider war in the Middle East and there is no resumption of the war in Mindanao and Sulu. The prices of oil and food stabilize or at least rise only moderately. There is no forced repatriation of Filipino workers abroad, and there is no pronounced rise in criminality. So there would be no credible reason to declare martial law.
"But President Arroyo would continue her maneuvers to remain in power beyond 2010, either as prime minister, if we switch to the parliamentary system; or as president without term limits, if we retain the presidential system…."
And the proof of this is the parallel moves to shift to the parliamentary system (led by Albay Gov. Joey Salceda, since Feb, 11) and to the federal form of government (led by Sen. Nene Pimental, since early June), the latter specifically targeted by Pimentel to take place before the end of President Arroyo's term and specifically designed by Pimentel to be brought about through a constituent assembly in which the Kampi/Lakas juggernaut would overwhelm any opposition from the Senate. .
I concluded: "So even under my best case scenario, I do not think there will be presidential elections in 2010…..It will be GMA all the way…"
That was the gist of my speech before Inday Santiago's Mindanao Commission on Women in Davao City last June 24.
In the past ten days or so, the resumption of hostilities in Mindanao and Sulu, which was an ingredient in my worst case scenario above, has suddenly become a very real possibility.
This is because of the wide public outrage that has met the signing of a memorandum of agreement (MOA) in Kuala Lumpur, scheduled yesterday (Aug. 5) between negotiators from the Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) and the MILF.
The MOA gives to the MILF 712 additional barangays in five provinces (including Palawan) over and above the six provinces already in the existing Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), which would now constitute the ancestral domain of the Bangsamoro, to be called the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE), eventually the Bangsamoro Federal State in a Philippine federal union.
A three-color map on the front page of the Philippine Daily Inquirer (August 6) shows that the projected BJE would be larger than the area of the present ARMM by about 30-35 percent.
Unknown to most people, because it is not discussed in media, is something called "Special Intervention Areas" (SIA) which are "conflict-affected areas outside the BJE which shall be the subject of special socio-economic and cultural affirmative action implemented by the Central Government (read: Manila) pending the conduct of a plebiscite not earlier than 25 years from the signing……" Presumably after Gloria Arroyo has been succeeded to the presidency by Mikey Arroyo.
The SIA would enlarge the BJE-ARMM area by about 100 percent, including about 80 percent of Zamboanga del Norte and Zamboanga del Sur, plus parts of Compostela Valley, Davao Oriental and Sarangani, and about one fourth of Palawan. Taken together (in 25 years?), the ARMM-BJE-SIA federalized ancestral domain of the Bangsamoro would cover about 40 to 45 percent of the total land area of Mindanao; plus all of Sulu, Tawi-Tawi and Basilan; plus about one fourth of Palawan
Which should warm the cockles of Sen. Pimentel and his federalist confederates as their dream of a federal union moves closer to realization.
But the stupid GRP panel forgot to give away the Greenhills Shopping Center, the R. Hidalgo neighborhood in Quiapo, and the Makati Cinema Square, for which the MILF should rightfully file a protest with the Organization of Islamic Conference..
Will the Roman Catholic bishops now continue to support GMA (Gloria Mahmoud-Arroyo), just because she stands with them in rejecting artificial methods of birth control? .
The signing of the MOA has been stopped by a temporary restraining order (TRO) from the Supreme Court, sought by local (Christian) government officials in Zamboanga City, Iligan City and North Cotabato province, who complain that they were not consulted prior to the initialing of this MOA last July 27 and who feel they have been betrayed by the Arroyo government by consigning them without their consent to the Sharia jurisdiction of the BJE.
The local government officials have now been supported by members of the Lower House (led by Rep. Teddy Locsin) and the Senate (led by Senators Mar Roxas and Chiz Escudero), some of whom believe – as I do - that this sell-out in Mindanao is part of the maneuver of President Arroyo to remain in power beyond 2010 (which I have been repeatedly alluding to in this space since 2005).
The GRP panel, led by Gen. Hermogenes Esperon, assures the MILF that it will have its federal state soon, but that it has to abide by the constitutional processes, including a plebiscite, congressional approval and charter change...
The MILF panel, led by Ghadzali Jaafar, insists that the unpublicized initialing of the MOA last July 27 makes the agreement a done deal and binding to the GRP, even if it is not yet formally signed.
In this and in previous columns, I have written that in negotiations like this, when one party wants to terminate the "peace talks" but wants to blame the other party for the collapse of the talks, it will make demands that it knows the other party cannot meet. We seem to be reaching that point of impasse and we are staring into the abyss. *****
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