Be Afraid

by Ellen Tordesillas
July 23, 2008

Last Sunday, a friend texted me to read the column of former Chief Justice Artemio Panganiban in the Inquirer, and "be afraid."

Panganiban's column is titled "Can Arroyo reign beyond 2010?"

His answer is "yes" and he thinks she will opt for constituent assembly aptly called Con-Ass. Under Con-Ass, the two branches of Congress, the Senate and the House of Representatives will convene jointly to amend the Constitution including a shift to a parliamentary system.

The Constitution says the proposed amendments need a vote by three-fourths of all members of Congress and shall be valid "when ratified by a majority of the votes cast in a plebiscite which shall be held not earlier than 60 days nor later than 90 days after the approval of such revision."

How should Congress vote, jointly or separately? Considering the opposition-led Senate, the shift to parliamentary system has no chance in the upper chamber if they vote separately.

If it's jointly, Arroyo's lapdogs will overwhelm the Senate.

Of course, Filipinos are never lacking for optimists who will question it before a GMA-controlled Supreme Court and hope they will succeed. Panganiban thinks otherwise: "Considering that the eight justices who rejected the "Sigaw" initiative have been decimated by three retirements (four by Feb. 6, 2009 when Justice Azcuna turns 70) and considering further that GMA has lately been winning controversial cases, the high court may affirm a 'joint' vote. It may wash its hands and say: Let a plebiscite be held to determine whether the people want the parliamentary system."

In the plebiscite, Arroyo will surely use all government sources including the P80 billion and still increasing "Katas ng VAT" to buy everybody. Or she can manipulate the plebiscite the way Marcos did for his Constitution with a pliant Comelec.

Panganiban said there is sufficient time for a shift to parliamentary system: Congressional approval by Dec. 31, 2008, Supreme Court decision by June 30, 2009, and plebiscite in September 2009.

Once the parliamentary system is in place, elections can be scheduled on the second Monday of May 2010. Arroyo can run for a parliamentary seat in Pampanga and then become prime minister in a Lakas-Kampi-dominated Parliament after her term as president expires on June 30, 2010.

I posted Panganiban's article in my blog and here are some of the reactions:

John Marzan: "I don't think she will push her luck and anger the bishops, who have been so supportive of her unelected presidency to this day, and was crucial in fending off the opposition who wanted to make her accountable and resign."

Chi agrees with John: "Gloria won't dare do it. I think the entire Kapinuyan will send her to hell without second thought with the support of even her own bishops. Ngayon nga nagpapanic na with her negative 38 approval rating, gusto pa ba niya na ihambalos at ilatay sa buong katawan niya ang -38 na iyan?! Bababa pa ang iyan."

Golberg said it all depends how the level of Arroyo's shamelessness is. He said: "Depende sa kapal (ng mukha niya).. Kung ubod na ng kapal, e talagang lalampas ng 2010 iyan. Pero tingnan natin kung aabot siya dun."

Cheryl Daytec: "Legally, Arroyo may not reign beyond 2010. But this woman is above the law and the Constitution. And there is a Supreme Court that will sustain her exalted position above the Constitution. It is not far-fetched that she will reign beyond 2010, even without a Charter Change. To her the Constitution is nothing".

Juggernaut: "It is a terrible possibility, but with a scattered opposition, and her penchant for buying everyone, yes even the poor will probably not even mind as most of us will be too busy surviving. In a desperate situation, people will just follow whoever they see knows where he/she is going. The more desperate the country's situation becomes, the easier for her to pull us by the nose rings…

"If ever there was a time where we need to pray for a miracle, or pine for a hero(s), or become heroes ourselves, this would be it."

Tongue-Twisted expressed his exasperation with the people's apathy. "Naku, tutal wala namang gustong kumilos, let her be president for life!"

Tongue said we cannot be depending on others to oust Arroyo. "Hindi pwedeng iaasa sa iba ang tagumpay. Kung gustong makamit ang isang bagay, kilos! Gising na Juan, late ka na naman."

Tilamsik: "Malapit na ang 2010, lupaypay na si Inang Bayan, inilugso ng mga sakim. Itayo ang nakabayubay nyang katawan..! Magsimula sa mga pag-aaral. Mag-organisa. Magmulat. Magpakilos.

Kapit-bisig. Taas-kamao. Ayusin ang hanay. Piket, rali, walk-out, boykot, welgang bayan.

"At siyempre, sumanib sa puwersa ng manggagawa, magsasaka. Kasama ang mga inaapi, kasama ang masa. Sama samang pag kilos sa nagkakaisang hanay - Vox Populi, Vox Dei..!!"