Suddenly, it’s an open race

ON DISTANT SHORE
By Val G. Abelgas

With the continuous rapid slide of Vice President Jejomar Binay in satisfaction and trust ratings and in presidential surveys, it can now be ascertained that it will be another open race in 2016, just as it had been in all four presidential elections under the 1987 Constitution .

All those presidential elections failed to produce a majority president, meaning the winner got more than 50% of the votes, for the simple reason that there were at least five major candidates instead of just two, as was the case in all pre-martial elections.

President Benigno S. Aquino III had 42.08% of the votes in 2010 against heavyweights former president Joseph Estrada (26.25%), former Senate President Manny Villar (15.42%), and former Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro’s 11.33%.

Gloria Macapagal Arroyo supposedly got 39.99% in 2004 against actor Fernando Poe Jr.’s 36.51% and former Sen. Ping Lacson’s 10.88%.

Estrada himself got 39.86% in 1998 against former Speaker Joe de Venecia’s 15.8%, former Sen. Raul Roco’s 13.38% and former Cebu Gov. Lito Osmena’s 12.44%.

Former Defense Secretary Fidel V. Ramos became the first president elected under the 1987 Constitution in 1992 with a mere 23.58% of the vote against Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago (19.72%), businessman Danding Cojuangco (18.17%), former Speaker Ramon Mitra (14.64%), former First Lady Imelda Romualdez Marcos (10.32%), former Senate President Jovito Salonga (10.16%) and former Vice President Doy Laurel (3.4%).

Until the last few months, it appeared that for the first time, there would be a majority president with Binay expected to win by a landslide over any rival based on his consistent performance in popularity ratings. Binay was a shoo-in as the next president of the Philippines until the graft charges against him and his wife, former Makati Mayor Elenita Binay, were revived and allegations of corruption, bribery, unexplained wealth and other claims started emerging a few months ago.

His presidential bubble burst and unable to defend himself satisfactorily against the corruption claims, Binay is now desperately hanging on to what is left of his presidential dreams. Will he survive the onslaught that was rumored long before it exploded? Or will he just wilt and surrender his hopes to fate?

At this point, Binay can still salvage his vanishing presidential aspirations. After all, he remains on top of presidential surveys although the gap between him and reluctant second-placer Sen. Grace Poe is closing fast. His first option is to woo Poe into agreeing to be his running mate, but that would be next to impossible to accomplish. His other option is to go ahead with his candidacy, ignore all the charges against him and hope that the voters are too dumb to recognize right from wrong. After all, winning despite damning allegations does not lack precedence in Philippine politics.

The best option, of course, is to disprove all allegations of corruption and unexplained wealth against him, but he has refused to do that because, according to him, the charges are “politically motivated” and that he would not stoop down to the level of his accusers. Besides saying that the charges are “baseless,” he has not done much to disprove the allegations.

At this point, it seems Binay is nearing the end of the rope. Failure to satisfactorily disprove the allegations could only mean further decline in his ratings and then he can say goodbye to his presidential dreams. Financiers and other major supporters are definitely reconsidering at this point. Even his good friend and supporter Estrada categorically stated that he would have no recourse but to support Poe, the daughter of his best friend the late Fernando Poe Jr., if she decided to run for president.

Binay’s loss is clearly becoming every presidential wannabe’s gain. Despite repeatedly saying she was not eyeing higher position, Grace Poe’s numbers continued to surge in the latest presidential survey while Binay’s dropped some more. Binay now has just 26% of voter preference while Poe has 18%.

Poe will continue to dilly-dally while weighing her options. An inexperienced politician but a wise woman, she would see who would support her if she decided to run and wait for an invitation from a major party to be its candidate. In any case, financiers and endorsers would gravitate to her and push her to run as her ratings continue to surge. In the end, she would probably decide to run with Sen. Chiz Escudero as her running mate under Danding Cojuangco’s Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) or, believe it or not, under Aquino’s Liberal Party coalition.

As of this writing, there are reports that the LP is seriously considering Poe as its candidate. Poor Mar Roxas, about to be dropped again by the party he and his father have led loyally during their respective times.

Once Aquino decides on Poe and the latter agrees, which is not far-fetched, expect the President to drop Binay, too, like hot potato. I wouldn’t be surprised if Binay, an Aquino family friend, gets even more pounding and perhaps even jailed, as he warned just last Monday. Welcome to Philippine politics!

Santiago, who placed third with 12 percent, said she would definitely run if she still had the health and strength by late next year. Estrada, who was fourth with 10%, said she would probably just retire after his term as mayor, but would be an important endorser. Escudero, who was fifth with 5%, remains silent on his plans but would probably consider a run if Poe wouldn’t, or settle as running mate of Poe if the latter does run.

Roxas, like Binay is dropping fast – from second to sixth place with 6%, is still supposedly the Liberal Party’s candidate but he would most certainly be dropped like hot potato if his rating do not improve by the first quarter next year.

Others possibly considering a presidential run in 2016 and their latest survey numbers are Sen. Bongbong Marcos Jr., 4 percent, (4%), Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano (3%), former Ping Lacson, (2%), Sen. Franklin Drilon (2%), Sen. Bong Revilla (1%), former Sen. Dick” Gordon (1%), Speaker Sonny Belmonte (0.4%), and maybe Sen. Antonio Trillanes.

Suddenly, the presidential aspirations of many of these politicians have come alive. The following are the most probable candidates for president in 2016 – Binay (UNA), Poe or Escudero (NPC), Roxas (LP), Santiago (PRP), Revilla (Lakas), Marcos (KBL) and possibly Lacson (Independent, or possibly LP).

So, who will it be? Or rather, who should it be?

(valabelgas@aol.com)