Monday, December 15, 2014

Poe surges in new Pulse Asia poll

By RG Cruz

ABS-CBN News
VP Binay’s slide continues, down 15 points since June but is still top choice
Pulse-Asia-survey-Nov-2014MANILA (2nd UPDATE) – It seems Vice President Jejomar Binay and Interior and Local Government Secretary Mar Roxas aren’t each other’s only problems in the 2016 presidential elections.
Based on the latest Pulse Asia survey on presidential preferences for the 2016 presidential elections conducted from November 14 to 20, Senator Grace Poe–topnotcher in the 2013 mid-term elections for senator–surged to number 2 behind Binay and way past Roxas. Poe polled 18%, just 8-percentage points behind Binay and 12-percentage points ahead of Roxas.
Poe’s 2nd place finish comes amid the Senate investigations on corruption allegations against Binay and despite Roxas’ media exposure through various advertisements in the provinces and coverage in the media over various issues.
Binay actually sank further to 26% in November from 31% in September and 41% in June—about 15-percentage points in less than half a year.
Binay remains the top pick for president, remaining most popular in Mindanao, National Capital Region, Visayas and balance of Luzon.
In the September survey, Roxas was at 2nd place with 13% while Poe was at 4th place with 10%.
In the June survey, Poe was the 2nd placer with 12% while Roxas was 4th with 7%.
In the November survey, Binay and Poe were followed by Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago (12%) and former President and incumbent Manila City Mayor Joseph Estrada (10%).
Roxas was back at single-digit territory with 6%. He was overtaken by Senator Francis Escudero with 7%. Escudero placed 6th in September with 5% and 4th in July with 7%.
Pulse-Asia-survey-Nov-2014.2Across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, Binay is the leading presidential candidate in the Visayas (28%) and the poorest Class E (30%).
Almost the same voter preferences are obtained by Vice-President Binay and Senator Poe in Metro Manila (29% versus 19%), Mindanao (30% versus 19%), and Class D (26% versus 20%).
In the rest of Luzon, relatively the same levels of electoral support are enjoyed by Binay (22%), Poe (20%), Defensor-Santiago (13%), and Escudero (10%).
In Class ABC, essentially the same double-digit voter preferences are recorded by Defensor-Santiago (19%), Binay (17%), Poe (17%), Roxas (10%).
BINAY CAMP SEES GLASS HALF-FULL
Binay’s office took the survey with a grain of salt. In a statement to media, Office of the Vice President (OVP) spokesperson Joey Salgado said, “The 5% (sic) decline is marginal, according to Pulse Asia. This is welcome news because the survey was taken at a time when the VP’s detractors were aggressively throwing mud against him in the Senate and in media. If you recall, Trillanes bragged that in this survey, the VP’s numbers will drop by 10 points or more. That did not happen.
“For us, it means that the people have seen through the motives of the senators who style themselves as presidentiables (sic). The survey also shows that the public continues to appreciate the VP’s record of effective and compassionate leadership which he started as mayor of Makati. He is grateful for the people’s trust and support.”
UNA President, Navotas Rep. Toby Tiangco said, “no matter what the numbers are, the VP will just be focused on his commitment to uplift the lives of Filipinos.”
For Roxas ally, Liberal Party Caloocan Rep. Edgar Erice “it shows that Binay’s preference is continuously going down because of the unanswered corruption allegations, while people are quite uncertain on whom to elect for 2016. Understandably, 2016 is yet too far away and not one is campaigning except for VP Binay.”
GRACE IS TOP VP PICK
Pulse-Asia-survey-Nov-2014.3Poe, however, fares even better in the vice-presidential race where she continues to be the top choice in the November poll.
One in three Filipinos (33%) would vote for Poe as vice-president if the May 2016 elections coincided with the conduct of the interviews for this nationwide survey.
The lawmaker is followed by Escudero (20%) and Cayetano (13%).
There are seven other probable vice-presidential bets included in this electoral probe and they register voter preferences ranging from 0.3% to 8%.
Less than one in 10 Filipinos (2%) does not express support for any of the personalities whose vice-presidential chances in May 2016 are probed in this survey.
Poe is the leading choice for vice-president in May 2016 among those in Metro Manila (41%), Mindanao (39%), and Class D (33%).
Basically the same voter preferences are obtained by Poe and Escudero in the rest of Luzon (29% versus 21%), the Visayas (26% versus 17%), and Class E (31% versus 19%) while in Class ABC, three individuals register virtually the same levels of support–Poe (32%), Escudero (19%), and Cayetano (19%).
Poe’s momentum in the vice presidential race is sustained from the September and June 2014 polls of Pulse Asia.
In September, among the 11 individuals included in Pulse Asia’s September 2014 vice-presidential probe, Poe emerged as the top pick with 31% of Filipinos identifying her as their choice for vice-president in May 2016. She enjoyed sizeable plurality vice-presidential voter preferences in practically all geographic areas (29% to 36%) and every socio-economic grouping (30% to 31%). The only exception is in Mindanao where almost the same voter preferences were recorded by Poe and Escudero (29% versus 23%).
In June, Poe was also on top with 26% followed by Escudero at 22%.
INCUMBENTS AND EX-SENATORS RULE
In the senatorial race, the November poll of Pulse Asia said that Filipinos are naming an average of 10 (out of 12) of their preferred senatorial candidates and most of them (64%) already have a complete slate for the May 2016 senatorial elections; 14 out of 59 probable candidates for senator have a statistical chance of winning as of November 2014
All of the probable winners are either incumbent or former government officials. Sharing the top spot are Senator Vicente C. Sotto III (54.7%) and Presidential Assistant for Rehabilitation and Recovery Panfilo M. Lacson (52.9%). Both have a statistical ranking of 1st to 3rd places.
They are followed by Presidential Assistant for Food Security and Agricultural Modernization Francis N. Pangilinan (49.2%) who occupies 1st to 6th places.
Three probable senatorial bets are in 3rd to 8th places – former Senator Juan Miguel F. Zubiri (45.5%), Senator Ralph G. Recto (45.1%), and Senate President Franklin M. Drilon (44.9%).
With an overall voter preference of 42.9%, former Senator Richard Gordon finds himself in 4th to 9th places. Close behind the latter is Senator Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. (40.5%) who is in 4th to 10th places.
Completing the list of probable winners are Senator Sergio R. Osmeña III (37.8%, 7th to 12th places), former Akbayan Party-List Representative Risa Hontiveros (35.4%, 8th to 14th places), former Senator Jamby Madrigal (34.9%, 9th to 14th places), Department of Justice (DOJ) Secretary Leila M. de Lima (33.8%, 9th to 14th places), Senator Teofisto Guingona III (31.8%, 10th to 15th places), and Taguig City Representative Lino Edgardo S. Cayetano (31.3%, 10th to 15th places).
Non-support for any of the 59 probable senatorial bets included in this probe is expressed by only 3.6% of Filipinos.
As in previous Pulse Asia surveys, this nationwide survey is based on a sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above. It has a ± 3% error margin at the 95% confidence level.
The November survey occurred amid the Senate investigation on the corruption allegations against Binay and Philippine National Police (PNP) chief Alan Purisima, among other issues like the APEC summit, the anniversary of Yolanda.
Poe is one of Purisima’s critics. Roxas, on the other hand, is one of those behind the response of the government to the impact of typhoon Yolanda.

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