The MRT 3 is not the only tragedy in waiting, thanks to the horrible decision making process of government. Angat Dam, the only water source for Metro Manila, may turn out to be the bigger potential tragedy. And like MRT 3, government can be blamed because of the serious delays in doing what ought to be done.
Last week, Dr. Renato Solidum, the executive director of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) warned Bulacan officials of a catastrophic disaster unless we move fast to reinforce the structural integrity of Angat Dam.
Angat dam is an old dam and must be fortified as soon as possible. It is old and still sitting along the West Valley fault line,” Dr Solidum said. According to the Phivolcs official, the West Valley fault line cuts through parts of western Bulacan, particularly the location of the dam. He warned that when the West Valley fault line moves, it could create a magnitude 7.2 or an intensity 8 earthquake that could spell disaster of unimaginable proportions.
The structural integrity of Angat dam in the mountains of Norzagaray town had been discussed for years. During the current Aquino watch, I have heard of plans to reinforce the dam from MWSS administrator Gerry Esquivel some two or three years ago.
I remember Gerry telling me he is giving this plan to fortify Angat Dam the highest priority precisely because of the danger cited by Dr. Solidum. Some 97 percent of Metro Manila water supply is provided for by Angat. If the dam breaks, there will be a catastrophic flood in Bulacan and Metro Manila will run dry.
According to Gerry, P-Noy understood the importance of the immediate repair and strengthening of the rock-filled dam very early on. But two years later, P-Noy understanding the need for immediate repair did not mean actual action happening on the ground.
I have been talking to Gerry about the Angat repair project for quite a long time now and that’s why I am more or less familiar with the efforts taken and the problems encountered. I once worked with the Ministry of Energy and I am also familiar with Angat Dam, having flown there on several occasions and even took home some of the dam’s eel caught by Napocor staff.
I understand that Angat’s rehabilitation does not fall under MWSS mandate, but under Napocor’s and PSALM’s. But Gerry decided to champion the dam’s strengthening and remediation. He personally brought up the matter to P-Noy, presenting to him his vision of an Angat facility that is world-class and with state of the art facilities.
When the Angat project was presented to NEDA, Gerry included in the proposal, investing on full instrumentation and the latest dedicated weather forecasting equipments for upstream and downstream. I told Gerry that this is one public works project that has clear benefits to the more than 20 million people of Metro Manila and Bulacan province.
So, in 2011, MWSS initiated a technical working group involving the many stake-holders of Angat: NPC, PSALM(funded the Feasibility Study), NIA, Pag-Asa, Phivolcs, Office of Civil Defense, and the Provincial Government of Bulacan. Tonkin and Taylor, (dam technical consultants) completed the study in May 2012.
Gerry gave me the impression that P-Noy was very supportive of the project and he approved it on September 2012. The NEDA Board allocated P5.7 billion for immediate implementation.
But there was a snag. The power generating side of Angat under Napocor was privatized by PSALM. That was a stupid thing to do since Angat was primarily Metro Manila’s source of water. In fact, the power side can only release water to generate electricity with the concurrence of MWSS.
Metro Manila’s water needs constitute top priority for Angat. Theoretically, even in irrigation, NIA cannot release water (which they did anyway the other week) without the approval of MWSS. In other words, whoever won the privatization bidding for the power plant will not be able to maximize the power generation of the dam.
PSALM carried out a privatization bid for Angat anyway and a Korean firm, K-Water won it. A suit was filed questioning the awarding of the natural resource to a foreign firm.
But on Oct. 9, 2012, the Supreme Court decided the bidding conducted and the Notice of Award issued by PSALM in May 5, 2010 in favor of Korea Water was valid and legal. MWSS rightly objected to the sale and also filed a Motion of Reconsideration with the Supreme Court.
Negotiations between PSALM and K-Water ensued on various issues. MWSS also insisted that K-Water must respect the water release protocol which requires MWSS clearance in order to protect Metro Manila water users.
Eventually, San Miguel signed a partnership agreement with K-Water which erased any potential problems with K-Water being foreign. Then, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of former Napocor employees to the tune of P63 billion and a QC Sheriff attached PSALM assets including Angat. That stopped everything including the deal with K-Water and San Miguel. Today, everything else about Angat is on hold.
It’s been two years since P-Noy’s approval and fund allocation. Somehow, the legal problems brought about by PSALM’s insistence to privatize Angat and now the P63 billion judgment against PSALM by former Napocor employees halted any progress on plans to strengthen the dam. There was this unfortunate inability to see the critical value of Angat’s immediate rehabilitation.
Two years have been wasted. If the project proceeded as planned, it would be finished before 2016. Now the project is in limbo. Hopefully, no earthquake happens before our bureaucrats are able to move. I don’t blame Gerry for the lack of action because he had constantly updated me on it and I know he had been frustrated by it as well.
Dr Solidum said that the West Valley fault line moves every 400 or 600 years and that the last recorded movement of the West Valley fault line was in 1658. In other words, we are due for a big one any time. Dr Solidum said the aging Angat Dam needs modern engineering interventions. He said modern dam strengthening technology must also be introduced immediately.
I am not sure if only a West Valley fault line movement is the only danger to Angat Dam. Because Dr. Solidum kept on talking about the aging Angat Dam, it gave me the impression that other sources of pressure on the dam may cause a serious enough collapse.
For example, would an Angat Dam that is full to overflowing due to heavy rains produce enough pressure to cause serious problems? I get the impression that beyond an intensity 8 earthquake on the West Valley Fault, a less serious natural phenomenon may be enough to trigger a flash flood that could wipe out thousands of Bulacan residents and dry up Metro Manila faucets.
Even a really catastrophic accident at MRT 3 attributable to DOTC incompetence will kill or maim at most a couple of thousand passengers. Angat Dam giving way will kill hundreds of thousands right away and subject some 20 million of us to a daily life of hell without drinking water.
It is a scary situation and I hope P-Noy gets scared enough of what could happen to get things moving. He is not powerless to get things done. But he must want to do it and resolve not to take a no for an answer among the bureaucrats under him.
We can all pray, of course, that nothing happens to Angat Dam while our lawyers and bureaucrats are sorting things out. Ideally, government should just go ahead and start doing the civil works required for the remediation project. This is something that must be done, in any case.
I am not sure just praying would do any good if we are remiss in things we should have done. Prayers only work if God sees that we have done everything so the rest He can take care of. In this case, the problem is still very much in our hands… very much a catastrophe in waiting.
Emergency
Lawyer Sonny Pulgar sent this one.
A doctor got a phone call from one of his colleagues.
“We need a fourth for poker,” the voice on the phone said. “I’ll be right over,” replied the doctor.
As he was putting on his overcoat, his wife asked, “Is it serious?”
“Oh yes, quite serious,” he said gravely. “They’ve had to call in three other doctors as well.”
Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is bchanco@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco
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