Indeed a good year, economically

ON DISTANT SHORE
By Val G. Abelgas 

There is no reason not to agree with President Aquino in declaring that the year just passed was a good year for the Philippines. And based on what we have seen in the past year, he could also be right that 2013 would be better.

In fact, many friends who have recently visited the Philippines are one in saying that the country that many left to seek better opportunities in other countries now seem to offer better chances for financial success. For those Filipinos who now face financial uncertainty in the United States because of the political gridlock in Washington, the lure of the light that once attracted him to the hitherto land of milk and honey now seems to be coming from those familiar shores on the other side of the Pacific.

Let me remind the readers, though, that I am talking here only about financial opportunities based on a spate of recent good economic news coming from the homeland.

In assessing his administration’s performance in the past year, the President boasted that the domestic economy has been transformed from being the sick man of Asia into one of the new tigers of the global economy.

“2012 was an auspicious year for our economy, our government, and our society,” the President said in his New Year message. “Indeed, our economy is one of the most dynamic in the world—growing even stronger and more resilient as reforms are instituted.”

The world’s economic managers believe him because the economic indicators have been good the past several months.

Trade Undersecretary Cristino Panlilio said last week the economy could grow 6.7 to 6.8 percent in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012. That would make the Philippines the second or third in Asia, with China expected to top, he said.

Top Singapore lender DBS was more conservative in its forecast, but was close to Panlilio’s figure. The bank revised upward its 2012 economic growth forecast for the Philippines to 6.2 percent from the previous 5.7 percent, citing the country’s consumption and investments’ strong growth and discounting the impact of slower exports.

DBS said that the country’s economic momentum is strong due to resurgent domestic demand and goods exports remain “very well” held up despite ongoing external headwinds. In the third-quarter of the year, the Philippine economy grew by 7.1 percent year-on-year, bringing growth in the first nine-months to 6.5 percent, the fastest in Southeast Asia.

“This set of numbers is particularly impressive considering that many other Asian economies have been showing signs of slowdown amid ongoing external headwinds,” DBS said.

The International Monetary Fund was even more conservative, but nevertheless raised its growth forecast for the Philippines from 4.2 percent to 4.8 percent.

Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, was impressed. “I know that the growth in 2012 will be way in excess of 5 percent and we’re certainly looking forward to 2013 to be in the range of 5 percent as well. This is due in no little parts to the excellent policy mix deployed both by the secretary of finance and the central bank of the Philippines.”

Standard and Poor’s, on the other hand, raised its outlook on the Philippines’ credit rating to “positive” from “stable” on Thursday, raising the possibility of a long-sought investment-grade rating as early as this year.

Other good news came in the last quarter of 2012. The Philippines ranked second among 58 countries in the Global Consumer Confidence Survey conducted by The Nielsen Co. The Philippines’ 118 was next only to India and Indonesia, which both shared the top spot with 119. Among Southeast Asian countries, consumer confidence in the Philippines bested Thailand by 6 points and Malaysia by 13 points. Singapore and Vietnam scored below the index of 100 with 98 and 87, respectively.

At the end of the year, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, said the peso emerged as the second-fastest appreciating currency in Asia and the fourth fastest among all actively traded currencies in the world in 2012. Data from the central bank showed that the peso rose by 6.8 percent against the US dollar in 2012, second only to the Korean won’s 7.78 percent.

Meanwhile, remittances from overseas Filipinos in the first 10 months of the year reached $17.5 billion, up by 5.8 percent from $16.53 billion in the same period a year ago. Another bright spot in the economy is the tourism sector that registered visitor arrivals from January to September 2012 totaling 3,149,985 for a 9.08% increase over the previous year’s arrivals of 2,887,715 for the same period.

Coupled with these bright economic indicators are the enactment of new laws that would redound to the benefit of the national economy – the Reproductive Health Bill that could result in increased per capital income in the years ahead, and the Sin Tax Law that hopes to generate P34 billion in incremental revenues from tobacco and alcohol in 2013.

President Aquino is finally starting to deliver on his campaign promises, at least on the economic aspects. It took half of his six-year term, but the President is obviously beginning to listen to his economic team more than to his political advisers, who can easily undo his economic achievements if left unchecked.

There is still much to be done, especially in making sure that the economic gains trickle down to the people and that the drive to curb corruption goes beyond rhetoric and slogans.

Nevertheless, the year has been good economically, and President Aquino and his economic team deserve the credit.

(valabelgas@aol.com)