Has China bitten off more than it can chew?

 Jose Antonio A. Custodio

(Jose Antonio A. Custodio is a security and defense consultant having worked at private sector and government offices. He was a technical adviser for a US defense company working for the US Pacific Command. He also specializes in military history and has post-graduate studies in history from the University of the Philippines.)

The year 2012 saw the People’s Republic of China adopt a more aggressive policy in its territorial disputes with its neighbors in East Asia and Southeast Asia. In April 2012, Chinese fishermen poaching in the Bajo de Masinlioc Shoal (Scarborough Shoal) were intercepted by the BRP Gregorio del Pilar, the flagship of the Philippine Navy. Not soon thereafter, Chinese maritime patrol and surveillance vessels deployed in force at the shoal and a standoff occurred between PROC and PH vessels.

Negotiations ensued and the Philippine side believed that an accommodation had been reached with the Chinese and the PN vessel was withdrawn with the understanding that the Chinese would also withdraw their ships. The Chinese never withdrew and up to this day still occupy in force Bajo de Masinloc Shoal, which is a few hundred kilometers from Zambales and well within the EEZ (exclusive economic zone) of PH.

This duplicity of the Chinese was followed by heavy-handed diplomatic moves by China in several ASEAN meetings that sought to divide the members of the association against each other. In 2012, the Chinese vigorously pressed their territorial claim in the region through what they call the 9-dash line, which is an imaginary boundary that encompasses the East China Sea, South China Sea, and the West Philippine Sea.

At that same time, new Chinese passports contained maps showing the 9-dash line became a source of protest throughout the region, and on December 2012 an announcement was made by Beijing that beginning January of 2013, Chinese maritime security agencies will board foreign vessels in areas that China claims.  

Not content with stirring trouble in the West Philippine Sea, the Chinese also launched a series of probes into the Japanese claimed Senkaku Islands at the East China Sea by the last quarter of 2012. This prompted a disproportionate response from the Japanese who sent not only warships to the area but also large formations of fighter jets.

A number of factors may have contributed to this Chinese behavior:

* Economic growth In 2012, China overtook Japan as the 2nd largest economy in the world. In contrast, the United States remains stuck in economic woes. This has caused some economic analysts to predict that China’s economy will overtake that of the US by 2020 at the earliest.
* Military modernization, expansion, and influence The Chinese military has continued its modernization that has resulted in the transformation of what once an infantry-dominated force equipped with 1940s-50s vintage weapon systems to one that rivals that of advanced Western militaries. Aside from the Chinese stealth fighter prototype, China also announced the commissioning of its first aircraft carrier in 2012, the Liaoning. Acquisitions of modern equipment from Russia to development of advanced indigenous systems have been made possible by the spectacular growth of the Chinese economy.
* Yellow journalism in China and the rise of nationalism Economic growth, military modernization, and territorial disputes have been woven together by Chinese media in order to fuel nationalist sentiment and pride among the population that then provides the justification and public support for Beijing to continue with its domestic and international policies.
Buoyed by these, China was successful in further expanding its control in the WPS when it managed to seize Bajo de Masinloc Shoal (Scarborough Shoal) and brush aside any attempts by the Philippine government to reassert its sovereignty in the area. However, what worked for China in its bullying of the Philippines did not work for China its face off with Japan over the Senkaku Islands.

Unlike the Philippines, which backed off from a potential military confrontation with China, the Japanese did not bother to calibrate its responses to Chinese assertions in the Senkakus but deployed military forces immediately. The Japanese believe that the Chinese will not stop at those islands but will continue to push eastward until they neutralize any hostile state from East Asia to Southeast Asia and US military presence in the Central Pacific.

The Japanese can afford to escalate quickly since they possess the second most powerful conventional armed force in the region after the US military. As an example, the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force has a long maritime and martial tradition stretching back to the Imperial Japanese Navy of World War 2 fame.

Although China did make much noise about the relaunching of their aircraft carrier, the Japanese have already been operating five small aircraft carriers which the JMSDF has called by other names to skirt around the constitutional prohibition on power projection for Japan’s military.

Furthermore, Japan is a virtual nuclear power and it is widely suspected that it can quickly set up a nuclear arsenal and already has the delivery systems for such weapons of mass destruction. These reasons may be why the Japanese have so far not blinked in their dispute with the Chinese.

It also appears that the Japanese have taken the lead in the region to fend off Chinese hegemonistic ambitions whereas in contrast the US has issued a mixture of declarations from committal to non-committal leaving many states confused as to where the Americans really stand.

Japanese high profile visits in the Asian region have been unprecedented and for the first time in history, the newly elected Japanese Prime Minister, who is seen as hawkish in his views, chose Southeast Asia as the site of his first foreign trip.

The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs has issued statements supportive of Japan’s initiatives to modernize and reorient its military away from Constitutional prohibitions and be a more visible and active presence in Asia. This then caused the Beijing to brand the Philippines as a troublemaker in the region.

Unfortunately this face-off between the Chinese and Japanese instead of making conflict more remote may actually cause the spark that would ignite the region into war. It appears that both China and Japan are painting themselves into a corner due to the tit-for-tat hostile declarations and military deployments that they are threatening against each other.

What may make things worse is that since both are East Asian societies which put a very great value on “face,” it would be easy for both to descend into the point of no return due to a mutual refusal to appear disgraced by being the first to be seen as blinking. Add also to that the historical animosity between the two that stretches way back to the Mongol invasions, the Sino Japanese War in 1894-95, and the excesses committed by the Japanese military in China during the first half of the 20th Century up to the end of the Second World War.

Has China then bitten off more than it can chew? Did the Chinese move prematurely? If so, what may have caused it? The factors that may have caused China to become more aggressive in 2012 also serve as a double-edged sword. When a government whips up nationalist sentiment among its population it may cause intense public pressure for it to follow up on its promises because failure usually causes dissent and China is a country with a serious problem in social stability since growth and prosperity has not trickled down to the majority of the population.

China is hence beginning to experience the negative consequences of adopting capitalism within a totalitarian communist framework that despises individual liberties. Such a setup is easily abused by those in power and since there is no political freedom, there is no way for the dissatisfied population to air their grievances without risk of being at the receiving end of the armed might of a police state which then creates an atmosphere of widespread frustration.

A powder keg thus ensues and the only way for a totalitarian country to prevent it from blowing up short of doing meaningful political and economic reforms is to divert public attention from internal problems towards foreign issues. Furthermore, when Hu Jintao stepped down and was replaced as President by Xi Jinping in October 2012, the transition has not been as smooth as Beijing has portrayed it. Leadership changes in totalitarian states are often characterized by power struggles among influential factions within and outside government and for quite some time Beijing has had some problems with its provincial officials who sometimes defy the central government. Even agencies within the Chinese government are suspected to be not under the firm control of Beijing and are prone to undertake actions without any sanction from higher authorities.

Thus a Chinese leader is always at his weakest during the point of transition and for a period immediately after - up until he manages to consolidate his power. He is then equally vulnerable to manipulation as he attempts to manipulate those he wishes to put under his control. Any policy and action that result out of this messy situation may carry the danger that it was not carefully thought over. All of these may explain the position that China is in right now wherein it is almost universally distrusted by its neighbors and it is locked in a dangerous confrontation with Japan.

Hopefully, a conflict does not arise out of this confrontation between East Asia’s oldest rivals. If so, the consequences would be disastrous especially for the Philippines. The Philippine government will face a huge humanitarian problem as there will be tens of thousands of Filipino OFWs requiring evacuation if at all possible given a war between China and Japan.

Japan will immediately drag in the US in any fighting which then will result in a spillover of the conflict to the Philippines since the Chinese will most likely slice their way through the practically defenseless Philippine archipelago to outflank Japanese and American forces. What will be left of this side of the world once the war goes nuclear is definitely not going to be a pretty sight.

Hence the fate of the Philippines and of a great many nations lies in the hands of a few Chinese and Japanese officials who must transcend all the hatred accumulated through the centuries and break out from the corners that they painted themselves in.

http://www.interaksyon.com/article/53183/analysis--has-china-bitten-off-more-than-it-can-chew