By Simon Montlake
Forbes
Forbes
“Events, dear boy, events” (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Coincidence it may be, China’s rulers will kick off their party congress on Nov. 8, just as the world is digesting the outcome of the U.S. elections. The political elite has gathered in Beijing to confirm Xi Jinping as chairman of the ruling party and thus as leader of the Middle Kingdom. He will be heading an inner circle of nine (or fewer) party chiefs who intend to run China for the next decade. There certainly won’t be the nail-biting drama and as-it-happens live coverage that the U.S. election generates (including on CCTV’s English language channel). Comrade Xi has been President Hu Jintao‘s heir apparent since 2007. Nor are Chinese citizens being urged to get out and witness the events; central Beijing is under a security lockdown. The party’s deliberations are secret, and the voting is internal and largely vetted in advance. One group of unelected men (yes, men) will hand over to another group of unelected men, with a brief to govern 1.3 billion people. The contrast with the workings of U.S. democracy on high-definition display this week couldn’t be greater.
That said, the 18th congress of the Chinese Communist Party is worth watching, even if you don’t see much. The choices made by the new leadership in the years ahead matter greatly for China’s economy and those of its trading partners, which these days means pretty much everyone. China is trying to shift its economy away from an investment-led model that delivers diminishing returns. To make this economic pivot requires political choices that will penalise powerful interests at a time of rising expectations among increasingly connected urbanites. The biggest interest group of all is the CCP itself, which is why skeptics say reform is doomed to fail. Yet this is to assume that the CCP is a monolith, rather than a factionalised amalgam of politicians who differ on how best to stay in power indefinitely. This, after all, is what elites do: they perpetuate themselves. Xi is the son of party elder, as are others vying for a top slot in the hierarchy.
Close observers of Chinese politics – a discipline formerly known as Kremlinology – are busy comparing lists of who will be named to the Standing Committee of the Politburo, the nine-man cabal. After all the meetings and speeches and deals are done, the final line-up should be unveiled on Nov. 15. Expect a flurry of speculation as to what the new leadership might do next. The catch is that they aren’t yet in power. That must wait until the National People’s Congress (NPC) next spring that will install the party elite in their government positions: Xi as President, the second-ranked as head of the NPC, and so on. And even then, China’s once-in-a-decade transition isn’t over, as Hu may retain control of the party’s military commission. Unlike in the U.S., where Romney promises to remake the nation on Day One, Xi doesn’t sweep into office in the same way. He is primus inter pares, and that is the system’s strength or weakness, depending who you ask (Mao Zedong was all primus). As for policy reforms that bear Xi’s stamp and tell us where his ambitions lie, these might be a year or more away, and will be subject to exacting intra-party deliberations. Nobody expects a dramatic debut. That, at least, is the scenario laid down by the elite and their scribes. The world may not wait that long. As British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan reputedly said, when asked what could undo a statesman, “events, dear boy, events.”
No comments:
Post a Comment