PerryScope
By Perry Diaz
By Perry Diaz
PAG-ASA ISLAND
What was once a relatively placid body of water in the Western Pacific has become a tinderbox ready to explode. I am talking about an area that extends from the Sea of Japan down to the East China Sea through the Taiwan Strait and into the South China Sea with a total area of about 5.8 million square kilometers (2.2 million square miles). It’s dotted with little islands, islets, atolls, shoals, and rocks. Except for a handful of islands, these outcroppings are uninhabited. But the waters are rich in oil, natural gas, and marine life. And that’s why countries in the region are interested in owning part – if not all — of this vast body of water.
South China Sea
It did not then come as a surprise when the largest country in the region made her move. In March 2010, China – in a bold action — unilaterally declared the entire South China Sea a “core national interest” and told other countries, particularly the United States, to stay out! In Chinese parlance, “core national interest” means that it is non-negotiable.
Last June, after more than two months of standoff with Philippine naval vessels, Chinese gunboats effectively took de facto possession of the Scarborough Shoal (Panatag Shoal) when they prevented a Philippine Coast Guard vessel and fishing boats from entering the lagoon inside the shoal.
Then, on July 24, 2012, in her boldest move to date, China established a prefecture-level government in Sansha City located in Woody Island, which will administer all of the Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, and Macclesfield Bank. Woody Island — which was uninhabited when China forcibly took it from Vietnam 38 years ago — is now populated with more than 1,000 Chinese civilians with roads, a bank, a post office, a supermarket, and a hospital. Interestingly, Sansha is the smallest prefecture-level city by both population and land area (13 square kilometers or five square miles) but the largest by water area with two million square kilometers (772,000 square miles). In addition to the city government, China is also going to establish a military garrison in Sansha to protect her territory and sovereignty over the entire South China Sea.
With the establishment of the prefecture of Sansha, China achieved what she wanted without firing a shot: the entire South China Sea! Vietnam and the Philippines immediately protested China’s action. In response, China warned them against meddling in her internal affairs.
What’s China’s next move in the South China Sea? If China continues to use “salami-slicing” tactics – that is, slowly accumulating pieces of territory — her next move would be to take possession of the Spratly archipelago, one island at a time. But the problem here is that five other countries are claiming all or a part of the archipelago. Of the six claimants, China, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the Philippines have military presence in some of the islands. The Philippines has about 1,000 marines stationed in the Kalayaan group that includes Pag-asa Island, which has a small airstrip.
The question is: Would China risk military confrontation with the Philippines by sending military units to Kalayaan? If so, would the Philippine marines stationed there resist the intrusion?
It’s interesting to note that while the United States has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a policy statement earlier this year that the U.S. would remain neutral in territorial disputes in the South China Sea. However, she warned China to keep the sea-lanes open to international navigation. China responded that she would defend her territory.
East China Sea
SENKAKU ISLANDS
Meanwhile, China is waging a word war with Japan on the their territorial dispute over the Senkaku islands (Diaoyu to China), a cluster of five islets and three rocks in the East China Sea about 160 kilometers equidistant from Okinawa and Taiwan and about 320 kilometers from mainland China. While the uninhabited Senkakus are administered by Okinawa, China and Taiwan claim them as part of ancient China.
But what is interesting about the Senkakus is that, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the East China Sea has between one and two trillion cubic feet in proven and probable natural gas reserves.
Recently, the United States sent battle-ready air, land, and sea armada in Western Pacific. The USS George Washington carrier strike group began operating in the East China Sea, within striking distance of the Senkakus. The nuclear-powered super carrier USS George Washington is the U.S. Navy’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier. She is part of the U.S. Seventh Fleet, which is based in Yokosuka, Japan.
Another carrier strike group led by the USS John C. Stennis is operating slightly further south in the South China Sea. A nuclear-powered super carrier carries more than 80 warplanes and a strike group typically consists of guided-missile cruisers and destroyers, nuclear-powered attack submarines, and supply ships.
In the Philippine Sea, some 2,200 Marines are on board the amphibious assault ship USS Bonhomme Richard as part of an air-ground task force that includes two frigates.
Although the U.S. has taken a position of neutrality on the Japan-China territorial dispute, U.S. officials have made it clear that the Senkaku islands are covered under the U.S.-Japan security treaty, which requires the U.S. to defend Japan in case of attack. It’s interesting to note that the U.S. and Japan have recently completed an island defense exercise near Guam. Coincidence?
Sea of Japan
DOKDO ISLETS
Meanwhile, in the Sea of Japan (East Sea to South Korea), Japan is embroiled in another territorial dispute with South Korea over the Dokdo (Takeshima to Japan) Island midway between the two countries. Dokdo consists of two islets surrounded by 33 smaller rocks with a total area of 187,450 square meters.
The South Koreans are emotionally attached to the islets. Japan’s territorial claim of Dokdo reminds the South Koreans of Japan’s harsh colonial occupation of Korea during the 20th century.
Last April, a word war erupted when South Korean President Lee Myung-bak flew to the disputed islets. Consequently, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda recalled Japan’s ambassador from Seoul in protest.
Many believe that Japan is interested in Dokdo because of the large deposits of “gas hydrates” or methane gas frozen with water, on or in the seafloor of the Sea of Japan. Although it is not yet feasible to extract “gas hydrates” in commercial quantities for use as fuel for another 10 years, scientific research shows that the seafloor around Dokdo is promising. That makes Dokdo very valuable to both Japan and South Korea who have high demand for energy resources.
TWO U.S. CARRIER STRIKE GROUPS IN WESTERN PACIFIC
Flashpoints
These trouble spots in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Sea of Japan have put the United States in a sticky situation. On the one hand, she has military alliances with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. On the other hand, China is one of her biggest trade partners. While it is unlikely that Japan and South Korea would resort to armed confrontation, the situations in the East China Sea and South China Sea are volatile.
So, what’s next? As the age-old mantra goes, “The best defense is a good offense.” It worked well for the U.S. during the Cold War. It should work for her again this time around.
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