April 17, 2012

PerryScope
By Perry Diaz

Jojo Binay and Erap Estrada

With the 2016 presidential election still four years away, Vice President Jejomar “Jojo” Binay is busy forming a grand “opposition” political union of his party, the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban), with other political parties. And on top of the heap of those he’s trying to lure into his new United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) is former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada’s Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP). Makes one wonder, “Why Erap?”

The other parties who might join UNA are Danding Cojuangco’s Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC), Sen. Manny Villar’s Nacionalista Party (NP), and Sen. Edgardo Angara’s Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP). The only party that hasn’t been invited to join was former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s Lakas-Kampi-CMD (LKC). However, Rep. Mitos Magsaysay and former Sen. Juan Miguel “Migz” Zubiri, staunch LKC members and loyal supporters of Gloria were invited to join for possible inclusion on UNA’s 2013 senatorial slate. Makes one wonder, “Why Gloria loyalists?”

But where else would they go? Would they join President Benigno “P-Noy” Aquino III’s Liberal Party (LP) or a moribund LKC? How about a new political party or a “third force”?

Chiz’s dilemma

Let’s take the case of Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero who is officially “Independent” but a close ally of P-Noy. Chiz is the perfect “balimbing” (turncoat) because he can join any party and would not be accused of being a “political butterfly” like Sen. Loren Legarda who went party hopping when she ran for Vice President in 2004 and 2010.

In my article,“Quo Vadis, Chiz?” (November 3, 2009), I said that Chiz had three options of which the third one seemed more viable than the other two. I wrote:“His third option is not to run for higher office and instead serve out his remaining three years in the Senate. This would give him time to build a political party — or a movement — to pursue the reforms he wants. He can then run for re-election as senator in 2013 under his new party, together with a full slate of reform-minded senatorial candidates, congressional candidates, and candidates for local offices. Then he can run for president in 2016 as the ‘people’s candidate.’ But can he wait?”

Chiz abandoned his presidential bid and resigned from Danding’s NPC. However, he did not do anything to build his political base and remained independent. Now that he’s seeking re-election to his senate seat, he needs a political organization unless he is confident that he can win as an Independent, which he might.

But the best thing he could do is to run under P-Noy’s Liberal Party. And the worst thing would be to join the Binay-Erap alliance. He’d win either way. However, he’d be in a weak position for a presidential bid in 2016 if he joined the Binay-Estrada alliance unless he’d settle as Binay’s vice presidential running mate. But Erap’s son, Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, is already presumed to be Binay’s VP choice. Isn’t that what the Binay-Erap alliance is all about?

Maceda’s “bomba”

With a long short-list of “senatoriables” being considered for inclusion on UNA’s senatorial slate, there would be plots and counter-plots among the UNA senatoriables. The first casualty is former Sen. Ernesto Maceda who was initially mentioned as one of UNA’s 12 senatorial candidates.

Maceda got himself in hot water when he was quoted in the news saying “a vote to acquit Corona [in the impeachment trial] is a vote of support for Binay in 2016.” He said that Corona’s conviction would bolster support for P-Noy’s “anointed candidate” –presumably Roxas — for president in 2016. Binay immediately disputed Maceda’s claim saying that Maceda was just expressing his personal opinion as a political analyst.

Aquino-Binay clash

But what is intriguing is a recent news report that quoted deputy presidential spokesperson Abigail Valte as saying that the parting of the political ways between P-Noy and Binay is inevitable. However, she downplayed reports of “a possible clash between the two when their respective parties prepare for the 2013 and 2016 elections.” She said that it would be unlikely for P-Noy and Binay to clash since both of them “appear to be on the same page as far as reforms are concerned.”

But how can P-Noy and Binay be on the same page when it concerns reforms? There is no doubt that P-Noy and those he would include in the Liberal Party’s senatorial slate would continue fighting corruption and pursuing reforms in government. But how can Binay introduce reforms when he is in alliance with persons of questionable character and political groups that seem to breed corruption?

While P-Noy and Binay are trying very hard to show a façade of peaceful co-existence, open warfare between the Liberal Party and UNA would flare up as soon as the impeachment trial of Supreme Court Chief Justice Renato Corona ends. P-Noy could not afford to antagonize the senators allied with Binay lest they might vote to acquit Corona to deal P-Noy a deadly blow in his attempt to oust Corona. Corona would then owe pro-Binay senators a debt of gratitude or“utang-na-loob,” which could be repaid in so many ways on matters relating to contested elections.

Binay’s game plan

And this brings to the fore the nagging question: Why did Binay form UNA while the impeachment trial was ongoing? He could have waited until July 2012 after a verdict would have been passed. With six of the senator-judges running for re-election in 2013, five of which might end up on UNA’s “Magic 12” senatorial line-up, the timing of the unification effort is riddled in suspicion. I think Maceda opened a can of worms when he said “a vote to acquit Corona is a vote of support for Binay in 2016.” And I’m sure that P-Noy has the political savvy to decipher Binay’s game plan.

But in Binay’s attempt to unify all the diverse political parties under his umbrella, he may be creating a political machine similar to the Lakas-Kampi-CMD merger prior to the 2010 presidential election.

In my article, “Gloria’s Spruce Goose”(June 2, 2009), I wrote: “President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s long-time dream of creating the largest political party since the time of Marcos was realized last May 28, 2009 with the merger of Lakas-CMD and Kampi under the new name of Lakas-Kampi CMD. The merger of Lakas-CMD, founded by former President Fidel V. Ramos and former Speaker Joe de Venecia, and Kampi, founded by Gloria, would indeed be a formidable political force that could dominate the 2010 elections; that is, if it doesn’t break apart by its sheer weight.

“This reminds me of Howard Hughes who built the biggest flying boat which critics called the ‘Spruce Goose.’ On it’s maiden test flight on November 2, 1947 with Hughes piloting it himself, the humongous airplane flew for only a mile at 70 feet above the water. It’s mediocre performance forced Hughes to abandon the project.”

At the end of the day, Jojo Binay and Erap Estrada’s United Nationalist Alliance might turn out to be an “Unholy National Alliance” whose main attraction is the prospect of regaining political power. And guess what comes with that political power?

The kleptocrats love it!

(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)

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“The world suffers a lot. Not because of the violence of bad people, but because of the silence of good people!” – Napoleon