By Ellen Tordesillas
Malaya
‘The volcano is Mt. Natib and the BNPP is on its slope, the UP study said.’
ADVOCATES for the rehabilitation of the long- mothballed Bataan Nuclear Power Plant led by former Rep. Mark Cojuangco and his wife, Kimi, the incumbent representative of the 5th district of Tarlac have been quoted as undaunted by what happened to the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant which is now beleaguered after its stability was shaken by the 8.9 intensity earthquake and tsunami that followed the tremor that hit Japan last March 11.
Mark Cojuangco was quoted by Kyodo News as saying, “The design for BNPP is more earthquake resistant than Fukushima. What I’m telling you is that the Bataan plant is a better power plant (design) than Fukushima, although we really need to look at Fukushima as a benchmark.”
Kimi, who has filed a bill to determine the BNPP’s “operability”, acknowledged public sentiments in the light of what is happening in Fukushima. “Pursuing the bill needs to wait,” she said.
The Cojuangco couple should take a look at the findings of the study conducted by the University of the Philippines led by its National Institute of Geological Sciences.
The BNPP was a project by the Marcos government energy department as a solution to the country’s energy problems. It was stopped by the Cory Aquino administration.
I covered the BNPP way back in the 80’s and there were documents that showed it was sitting on an earthquake fault. BNPP advocates had said they had taken that information into consideration and instituted measures that would enable the plant to withstand a high intensity earthquake. That was what the Japanese also did in all their nuclear plants including Fukushima because it is known that Japan, like the Philippines, is in the so-called “Pacific Ring of Fire”, an area where large numbers of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occur in the basin of the Pacific Ocean.
But the recent UP study showed BNPP is “on the volcano”, Mahar Lagmay, one of the scientists that participated in the study, said.
The volcano is Mt. Natib and the BNPP is on its slope, Lagmay said.
There’s a lot of scientific jargon in the study but its conclusion is clear enough. It says according to the guidelines of the International Atomic Energy Agency, “… when evidence shows the existence of capable faults within 1 km of the nuclear facility, another site must be considered.”
The study said, “Such is the case for the BNPP where capable faults associated with the Lubao Fault were identified within 1 km of the nuclear power plant.”
Excerpts from the study’s conclusion:
“Natib is considered a capable volcano based on evidence of an active hydrothermal system with a magmatic signature and a calculated 1 x 10-4 – 2 x 10-4 per year with 95% confidence interval probability of a future volcanic eruption with VEI 6-7.
“Given that Natib is considered a capable volcano the impacts of volcanic hazards to the site were assessed based on the draft guidelines provided by the IAEA.
“Among the hazards identified, lava flows and pyroclastic density currents are within the screening distance value (SDV), the maximum distance from the source to the site at which the volcanic phenomenon could be a hazard. Out of all the volcanic phenomena, the occurrence of PDCs and opening of new vents proximal to the NPP do not have any engineering solutions. Lava flow and lahar hazards, however, can be addressed by engineering design.
“Faults were mapped in southwest Natib with one seen in Napot Point cutting through an indurated lahar outcrop up to the ground surface. Using the second criterion of the IAEA guidelines for seismic hazards, these tectonic structures in Napot Point are evaluated as capable faults because they show a structural relationship with the Lubao Fault, which is considered active based on truncated recent fluvio-deltaic sediments and paleo sea-level reconstruction from a peat layer recording as much as 3.5 m movement over the past 1,500 a BP.”
The study said “Although the work on Natib Volcano is still in progress, enough data has been gathered, sufficient for use as one of the scientific bases for the decision of the Philippine government to recommission or not the moth-balled Bataan Nuclear facility and general hazards preparedness by communities on the slopes of the volcano.”
Aside from NIST, UP’s Marine Science Institute and National Institute for Science and Mathematics also participated in the study.
***
Blog:www.ellentordesillas.com
E-mail:ellentordesillas@gmail.com
No comments:
Post a Comment