MUST READ: Gloria Forever!

by Antonio C. Abaya
from Standard Today

The following paragraphs are from my column of Sept. 22, 2009 titled Festung Gloria:

There is no truth to the rumor that President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo tells me in advance what she is going to do.

But I have a pretty good batting average when it comes to predicting what she will do.

After she promised on December 30, 2002, practically on the grave of Jose Rizal, that she would not run in the 2004 presidential elections, I wrote in my column of May 22, 2003 titled She Will Run, that she would. And she did.

Long before anyone thought of the possibility that President Gloria would use Charter Change to remain in power through a shift to the parliamentary system, I wrote in my column of May 17, 2005 titled Prime Minister Gloria? that she would. And she did.

In mid 2006, her then loyal ally, House Speaker Jose de Venecia launched two simultaneous operations to shift to parliamentary. One was a People’s Initiative, led by De Venecia factotum Raul Lambino and his Sigaw ng Bangaw to gather six million signatures endorsing a shift to parliamentary.

The other was a shameless attempt, led by JdV himself, to convene the Lower House into a constituent assembly, without the participation of the oppositionist Senate, to railroad a shift to parliamentary. Both attempts were shot down by the Supreme Court.

But how does President Gloria segue from president to prime minister? In my column of October 03, 2007, titled Dominatrix (referring to Gloria’s hold on the timid and mousy Romulo Neri), I wrote:

“A model (for GMA) may soon emerge in, of all places, Russia.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin was first elected in May 2000 from a field of ten candidates, with the support of the outgoing president, the late Boris Yeltsin. In March 2004, Putin was re-elected president with an astounding 71% of the votes. His presidential term ends in March 2008 and he is barred by the Russian Constitution from running for a third term.

“But – surprise! surprise! – he announced last Monday, Oct. 01, that he will run for a seat in the Russian parliament in the coming parliamentary elections on December 2, and that, as head of the ruling United Russia party, he had a `realistic’ chance of becoming prime minister……”

So as early as October 2007, I predicted that President Arroyo will follow the Putin Formula and run for a seat in Congress in May 2010 while she is still the sitting President.”

End of excerpts from my article Festung Gloria.

Now that President Arroyo has filed her certificate of candidacy for congresswoman of the second district of Pampanga, my predictions about her moves have come to pass with alarming – even to myself – accuracy.

Yes, there will be presidential elections in May 2010. No, she will not have her presidential term extended. But yes, she will run for – and win – a seat in Congress while she is the sitting president, like Vladimir Putin in Russia. But in practical terms how does she transit from president to prime minister?

There are two possible scenarios.

Scenario One. The elections in May 2010 will be the first ever computerized elections nationwide and there are just too many things that can go wrong. The more than 150,000 schoolteachers who will operate the system are totally unfamiliar with it. Many of them have never seen or operated a computer in their lives. Is there enough time to familiarize them with it? The system needs 80,000 technicians, one for each cluster of precincts. Do we have 80,000 computer technicians? The machines will not be ready until January 2010, at the earliest. Would there be enough time to train the 80,000 computer technicians in time for the May elections?

Many towns (and their voting precincts) do not have electricity or telephone connections. Even if the computerized counting machines were equipped with back-up batteries that will last supposedly for 18 hours, that may not be sufficient for remote communities that take hours to reach by foot, banca and/or carabao.

Keep in mind that there will be about 300 candidates’ names on the ballot. How long will it take each voter to go through such a long ballot? Is there enough time for 200 voters per precinct to go through 300 names, before the batteries go dead? This will not be like India where voters vote by party, and the parties’ easily recognizable symbols are what voters mark. Here voters choose individuals who most likely do not belong to the same party. Our electoral laws allow even our presidential and vice-presidential choices to come from different parties.

There are just too many things that can go wrong, or be made to go wrong, and likely will. That is Murphy’s Law, and it is in the Philippines, more than in any other country outside Black Africa and Haiti, where everything that can go wrong invariably does.

There is a strong possibility, therefore, that even if we do hold computerized elections in May 2010 and even if we assume good intentions on the part of the Comelec factotums and the schoolteachers, we would likely have chaos, real and/or manufactured, on May 10 that will result in a failure of elections.

This is especially true for the national offices at stake – president, vice-president, senator – because of the sheer volume of voters expected, 40+ million.. Even a ten percent failure rate would render the exercise a total failure that cannot be resolved by a back-up manual count because of the sheer number of voters and the geographical spread involved.

The situation is not so dire in the local offices at stake – congressman, governor, vice-governor, mayor, vice-mayor etc – in which a ten percent failure rate can be swiftly resolved by a back-up manual count, confined as it would be to small areas and their small local populations.

If because of even only a ten percent failure rate, there is no proclamation of a new president, a new vice-president, and 12 new senators by June 30, 2010, we will have no new government in place and we will have a constitutional crisis.

Section 7, Article VII of the Constitution says “Where no President and Vice-President shall have been chosen or shall have qualified, or where both shall have died or become permanently disabled, the President of the Senate or, in case of his inability, the Speaker of the House of Representatives shall act as President until a President or a Vice-President shall have been chosen and qualified.”.

In a failure of election scenario sketched above, there is no President or Vice-President proclaimed on June 30. There will also be no Senate President. The incumbent Senate President, Juan Ponce Enrile, is in office only up to June 30. He is running for re-election on May 10, but if there is failure of elections for national offices, no new Senate President will be chosen either because there will be no new Senate.

That leaves the Speaker of the House of Representatives as next in the line of succession, and I give you one guess as to who that Speaker is going to be. .

Scenario Two. If there is civil unrest and/or an insurrectionary situation before, during or immediately after the May 10 exercise, because of expectations of or the reality of failure of elections, then this would be a perfect justification for National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales’ transition revolutionary government to kick in.

On at least two public occasions, Gonzales floated this scenario in which a revolutionary government, with the approval and participation of key sectors of society – the Churches, the military, civil society, the business community etc – would take over the reins of government, with the active presence and participation of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, and with the likely help of PMA Class of 1978, of which she is an honorary member.

Many Palace insiders, including Executive Secretary Eduardo Ertmita, feigned ignorance of and disdain for the Gonzales scenario. But the fact that President Arroyo appointed Gonzales acting defense secretary when Gilbert Teodoro resigned the post to run for the presidency, shows that Gloria implicitly approves of it. And why not?

Whether via Scenario One (constitutional) or Scenario Two (extra-constitutional), Gloria would remain in power beyond June 30, 2010. One of the first acts that House Speaker or Revolutionary President Gloria will predictably push will be to convene a constituent assembly (ConAss) – remember there will be no Senate in both scenarios – to shift to parliamentary so that she becomes Prime Minister, who holds that office as long as her party retains majority of seats in parliament.

In the Philippine context, that means she would likely be Prime Minister for Life. Gloria Forever!!! *****

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.

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