Sinking Fast

by Antonio C. Abaya
from Standard Today

Unless the Law of Gravity has been revised, repealed or rewritten by the Lakas-Kampi-NPC juggernaut in the Lower House, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is sinking fast into oblivion.

According to a nationwide survey conducted by the Social Weather Stations from February 20 to 23, Mrs. Arroyo’s overall rating declined sharply from a ‘poor’ negative 24 percentage points in December 2008, to a ‘bad’ negative 32 points in February. This was derived by deducting 26 percent satisfied from 59 percent dissatisfied

The sharp decline is attributed to the plunge in her satisfaction rating in the Visayas and Mindanao, where she had in the past posted much higher numbers.

In the Visayas, traditionally her strongest bulwark aside from her home province of Pampanga, her net satisfaction rating plunged 19 points, from a ‘poor’ negative 14 points in December, to a ‘bad’ negative 33 points, with 61 percent dissatisfied..

In Mindanao, her rating plummeted 18 points, from a ‘poor’ negative 22 points in December to a ‘bad’ negative 40 points, with 62 percent dissatisfied.

Her rating in Metro Manila remained ‘bad’ at negative 44 percent from negative 45 last December, with 65 percent dissatisfied.

In the rest of Luzon, her rating fell from negative 23 to negative 24, with 54 percent dissatisfied.

The drop in net dissatisfaction with President Arroyo transcended social and economic class lines.

In the rural areas, her net dissatisfaction rating dropped from a ‘poor’ negative 19 in December to a ‘bad’ negative 33 points in February. In the urban areas, it also dropped from a ‘poor’ negative 29 to a ‘bad’ negative 32 percent.

Only the ABC socioeconomic class, surprisingly, gave President Arroyo a rise, from a ‘poor’ negative 28 in December to a ‘poor’ negative 19 in February.

But among the D class – who have minimum wage jobs - her ratings worsened from a ‘poor’ negative 21 to a ‘bad’ negative 31. And among the E class – who have no regular jobs at all and survive by selling things on the sidewalks or by engaging in petty crime – it went down from a ‘bad’ negative 31 to a ‘bad’ negative 42 points.

What this all means is that if presidential elections were held today under any pretext, and the elections were free and fair, neither President Arroyo nor her designated hitter would win.

If the elections were held in 2010 and they were free and fair, she or her designated hitter could conceivably win if, for example, the economy were to suddenly brighten up and jobs were to suddenly become available, not just to the poorest of the poor, but also to the harried and incredibly shrinking middle-class.

But the chances of that happening are very remote. The global recession has not bottomed out even if the stock markets have had a bit of an up-tick in recent days. The most optimistic prognosis that I have read puts recovery to begin at end of 2009. By the time such recovery hits these shores, it would be well into 2010.

The most pessimistic outlook is painted by doom-and-gloom Cassandras who predict a breakdown in the social order in North America and Western Europe as well as in China, as tens of millions of unemployed people give vent to their frustrations by staging mass protests and food riots and even - fasten your seat belts - civil wars.

I believe that Plan A is still operative, that the move to amend the Constitution to shift to the parliamentary system is still on. It is the simplest and quickest way for President Arroyo to constitutionally remain in power beyond 2010, whatever the surveys may say about how unpopular she is..

The Lakas-Kampi-NPC coalition has a stranglehold on the Lower House. They can and will no doubt revive moves to convene both Houses into a constituent assembly (ConAss) and attempt to vote as one body for charter change. Only the oppositionist Senate stands in the way and it will no doubt insist that the two bodies vote separately, in which case the issue will be deadlocked.

This matter will undoubtedly be raised to the Supreme Court, probably by mid-2009 or later. As long as Chief Justice Reynato Puno remains in his position, the Court can be relied on to block any such moves from the Lower House. But if Chief Justice Puno is removed, for whatever reason, then the way is clear for ChaCha and we will have GMA Forever, legally and constitutionally, no matter what the surveys say about how unpopular she is.

A variation of Plan A – let’s call it Plan A-1 – would be to postpone, not cancel, the May 2010 elections, by as few as two or three months, on the grounds of social unrest because of the continuing financial meltdown. By coincidence, Chief Justice Puno retires also in May 2010.

Postponing – not canceling – the elections by even as few as two or three months would open a window of opportunity for the Lakas-Kampi-NPC coalition to push for ChaCha through a ConAss since CJ Puno would be retiring by May 2010, making possible the appointment of a new Chief Justice friendlier to President Arroyo’s ambition to remain in power beyond 2010.

She may be sinking fast in the opinion polls, but if she really believes that “The Lord put me in this position,” as she told Pope Benedict XIV in the Vatican, she can also conceivably believe that “the Lord wants me to stay here.”

The Lord can revise, repeal or rewrite the Law of Gravity by the mere act of working the miracle of a new chief justice bodily ascending into the Supreme Court.. *****.

UPDATE. By the strangest coincidence, the March 19 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer (page 13) asks: “Will President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo run for Congress (in parliamentary elections) in 2010? In the last 22 days, President Arroyo visited Pampanga five times and four of those visits were all in her home province’s second district.”

The Inquire listed down these visits, in each of which she was accompanied by medical and dental missions. Unmistakable sorties to hustle for votes. Feb. 24 in Floridablanca; March 4 in Guagua; March 9 in San Fernando; March 10, Lubao; March 18 in Lubao again, to celebrate the birthday of her bosom pal, Lilia Pineda, wife of alleged jueteng lord Bong Pineda. No doubt the Lord, the real Lord, guided her to these places..*****

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