Friday, February 13, 2009

Obama’s Warning

By Antonio C. Abaya
Written on Jan. 26, 2009


It was not quite the Gettysburg Address of his hero and role model, Abraham Lincoln, but in his inaugural address President Barack did strike some reassuring notes about the place and role of the new, hopefully improved USA in an increasingly discordant and fractious world.

I especially liked his promises to specific regions and warnings to unnamed scoundrels lurking in the shadows.

“…We will begin to responsibly leave Iraq to its people, and forge a hard-earned peace in Afghanistan. With old friends and former foes, we will work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat, and roll back the specter of a warming planet. We will not apologize for our way of life, nor will we waiver in its defense, and for those who seek to advances their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken, you cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you.

“For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus – and non-believers. We are shaped by every language and culture, drawn from every end of this Earth, and because we have tasted the bitter swill of civil war and segregation, and emerged from that dark chapter stronger and united, we cannot help but believe that the old hatreds shall someday pass, that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve, that as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself, and that America must play its role in ushering in a new era of peace.

“To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect. To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict, or blame their society’s ills on the West – know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not on what you destroy. To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history, but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist….”

Some commentators have jumped to the conclusion that this warning was directed specifically at President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. I beg to disagree. This statement was a generic warning to several world leaders, which could conceivably include President Arroyo. The Philippines is not a central issue in American foreign policy to merit an oblique or direct warning from the American president, least of all during his inaugural address.

There are four elements in this warning, only three of which can be interpreted to refer to the Philippines. These elements are a) and b) clinging to power through corruption and deceit, which can refer to rigged elections and endemic government corruption; c) the silencing of dissent; d) the unclenching a clenched fist.

President Arroyo can rightly be accused of clinging to power through corruption and deceit. But so can Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe on both counts. Vladimir Putin of Russia can be accused of deceit in clinging to power: he shifted from being president to prime minister when his presidential term ended last March, but he is genuinely popular with the Russian people, to whom he has given prosperity and a new sense of national purpose.

Although Putin has not been personally linked to any corruption scandal that I am aware of, corruption is said to be widespread among the Russian power elite. But he has been accused of silencing dissent from crusading journalists, such as Ana Politkovskaya who was assassinated in the stairway to her flat in Moscow more than a year ago, and another journalist who was assassinated only last week. Russian media, especially television, is generally not hospitable to opposition voices.

And let us not forget President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the ayatollahs of Iran, who came out of their mothers’ wombs with fists clenched at the US and the Zionists, but who are apparently not tainted by corruption or deceit, even as they stifle dissent against the Islamic revolution.

President Arroyo has been accused of silencing dissent, principally because allegedly some 61 Filipino journalists have been killed since she assumed the presidency in January 2001, making the Philippines “the second most dangerous country in the world for journalists, next to Iraq.”

But this accusation is overdrawn because almost all of these slain journalists were provincial media persons who were killed by local political bosses and/or local gangsters for crusading against local criminal syndicates, not for attacking the Arroyo government. Nevertheless the tag against her has stuck.

As for clenched fists raised against America, this can be said to be true in the case of President Putin, but this was the fault of the cowboy George W. Bush who deliberately provoked the Russians by trying to dragoon Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, an act that would have been equivalent to Russia dragging Canada and Mexico into an anti-American military alliance.

President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and the virulently anti-American non-state players like Hamas, Hezbollah and al-Qaeda also have clenched fists defiantly raised against America. But Chavez is genuinely popular among his people and was elected and re-elected by them in open elections. And so was Hamas in Gaza. President Obama can try but there is very, little he can do to unclench their fists.

In the Philippines, the only one, aside from the residual Communists, shaking his clenched fists at America is the First Gentleman Mike Arroyo, who was unable to watch the last Pacquiao fight in Las Vegas because of a mysterious bout with diarrhea, contracted in mid-flight on his way to Los Angeles, which could not be treated on American territory.

So President Obama’s warning was not directed specifically at President Arroyo, but at a clutch of at least four or five world leaders that seems to include her. She is, at least, world-class.

But what can President Obama do against any or all of them to unclench their fists, aside from telling them that they are on the wrong side of history?

Really, nothing, as far as Presidents Putin, Chavez, Ahmadinejad and Mugabe are concerned. In the case of President Arroyo, President Obama can translate warning into action if she should insist on remaining in power beyond 2010, using “deceit and corruption” and even martial law, as she and Kampi are likely to do.

The US could make public their dossiers on the Arroyos and freeze all investments and official development aid, which would be a lethal blow in these days of economic meltdown. As a last resort, the US could also withdraw or suspend or down-grade diplomatic recognition, which would certainly be followed by other Western countries plus Japan,

But in the final analysis, it will have to be the Filipinos who must solve their problem with Mrs. Arroyo themselves. Obama’s America can only lend a helping hand. *****.

Reactions to tonyabaya@gmail.com. Other articles in www.tapatt.org and in acabaya.blogspot.com

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