TEHRAN (FNA)- An urgent report issued to the General Staff from the highly secretive Russian Deputy Defense Minister General Pavel Popov warned that war can be expected to erupt between the Pacific Powers of the United States, China and Japan “within weeks” due to a power struggle currently exploding within the Communist Party of China (CPC).
According to this report, the recent decision by Chinese leader Xi Jinping to prosecute retired security tsar Zhou Yongkang’s son Zhou Bin for corruption is the “leading impetus” that has led to a fracturing of loyalties in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) between those advocating immediate strikes against Japan and those cautioning a more strategic and diplomatic course of action in a number of territorial disputes between these two nations, Whatdoesitmean.com reported.
Zhou Yongkang, this report says, is a retired senior leader of the CPC and “no small fish” from the province of Sichuan where he was once the top official and headed the “petroleum mafia”, the once-impregnable fortresses of the big state-owned oil giants, which have deep military connections, and ruled the state security establishment under former Chinese leader Hu Jintao.
Since assuming power in November 2012, this report continues, President Xi Jinping began a largely secret war against Zhou Yongkang, but which broke into the open last year with the prosecution of Yongkang’s protégé and Central Politburo Member Bo Xilai who was sentenced to life imprisonment last September (2013) for corruption.
Because of President Xi Jinping’s fears of Zhou Yongkang, Russian military analysts in this report state, this past month he promoted as the new commander of the strategically important Beijing Garrison General Pan Liangshi, a veteran military commander with expertise in anti-terror maneuvers, and yet another move to consolidate his grip of the armed forces.
General Popov, however, in his report warns the General Staff that President Xi Jinping’s moves against Zhou Yongkang, and for his consolidation of control over the PLA, are “too little and too late” as Chinese military forces still loyal to the former Security Minister are even now planning “deliberate and provocative” actions against Japan and threatening military force against the Philippines in order to start a Pacific War they believe will unseat the President Xi Jinping.
One such provocative action against the United States by PLA forces loyal to Zhou Yongkang cited by General Popov in this report lists a 5 December 2013 confrontation in the South China Sea between Chinese and US naval warships that nearly led to conflict and which President Xi Jinping was unaware of until protests against China were lodged by the US State Department.
Even worse, this report says, was the warning issued to Japan earlier by PLA factions loyal to Zhou Yongkang that a “firm response” could be expected if Japan attacks Chinese ships, should Tokyo decide to take provocative action on the Senkaku Islands issue.
As Japanese military drills and deployments into the South China Sea area increase, General Popov further notes in his report, the stern words issued by Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera (who was overseeing the drills, and who vowed to protect the territory around the islands, which Japan considers to be its own) should not go unheeded, and who said “we can never overlook China’s repeated entries into our territorial waters. In addition to diplomatic efforts, we will cooperate with the Coast Guard to securely defend our territory and waters around the Senkaku islands”.
Even though China requires large food imports from the US, Brazil, Argentina and Australia to feed its growing middle class and urbanized elite, this report says, nevertheless a Chinese-Japanese war could break out over matters Westerners deem inconsequential.
And, according to this report, it would be a coalition war, and it could be big, bad, and long. The US-Japan alliance might appear solid in the early going, obscuring subterranean fractures within the alliance. Yet transpacific unity might dissipate should the struggle wear on and American resolve flag — exposing these fissures, all matters worth clarifying, General Popov warns, in allied circles now, “before things turn ugly”.
With China saying to America that they’re so serious about this conflict that they’re prepared to take the risks of being provocative in order to persuade the Obama administration to take seriously that they want to change the current order, but with no one truly knowing who speaks for the PLA, this report warns that even though the United States military remains the world’s most fearsome fighting force, unbeatable on a one-on-one basis, it could very well find itself in a protracted war that could end in nuclear Armageddon.
China is keenly aware of that fact too, this report concludes, so rather than orienting itself towards a total war it cannot win, China’s military strategy serves a smaller, but shrewder purpose — pushing the United States out of China’s backyard, a move that matches both President Xi Jinping’s and Zhou Yongkang’s goals too, no matter who wins out in this power struggle.
China Tightens Air Defense Zone, Warns Foreign Planes
China said in late January it had begun to issue warnings to foreign military planes entering its self-declared air defense zone over the East China Sea amid heightened tensions with its neighbors, especially Japan.
Bitter rhetoric between the neighbors has spiked since Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made a late-December visit to a war shrine in Tokyo that outraged Beijing, AP reported.
Abe this week compared the tense relationship to the pre-World War I rivalry between Britain and Germany.
Japanese officials say the comment was meant as a warning to avoid war.
Chinese state media quoted Air Force Spokesperson Shen Jinke as saying several kinds of Chinese planes recently patrolled the sweeping zone that was declared in November.
Warnings issued
He said the planes identified several foreign military aircraft, flew alongside them and issued them warnings.
He didn’t identify the planes or say when the patrol was conducted.
The zone is a “purely defensive measure that conforms to international practice,” Shen said.
The United States, Japan, the Philippines and other countries denounced the zone’s declaration in November as provocative, and said they would ignore China’s demands that their military aircraft announce flight plans, identify themselves and follow Chinese instructions.
China has said it would take unspecified measures against aircraft that disobey.
In a policy speech on Friday in Tokyo, Abe reiterated Japan’s position, saying it would “not tolerate any attempt to change the status quo by force”.
He said Japan would beef up its defensive capabilities “in order to defend the safety in the Southwestern region, as well as the vast sea and airspace around Japan”.
China Ships Sail off Tokyo-Controlled Islands after Abe’s WWI Claim
Chinese ships sailed through disputed waters off Tokyo-controlled islands last Monday.
Around 9am (00:00 GMT), Chinese coastguard vessels entered the 12-nautical-mile territorial waters of one of the Senkakus, which China claims and calls the Diaoyus, according to Japan’s coastguard, AFP reported.
The move came days after Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe compared Sino-Japanese tense relations with the run-up to World War I.
Japan Revises Teaching Manuals, Claims Islands as Territory
Japan said last Tuesday it was revising teaching manuals to make clear that two sets of remote islands at the center of its disputes with China and South Korea are integral parts of its territory, prompting protests from an angry Seoul.
Japan’s ties with Seoul and Beijing are increasingly strained over a host of issues, including the territorial rows and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit late last year to the Yasukuni Shrine, Reuters reported.
The conservative Abe has said he wants to revise Japanese history to have a less apologetic tone, a sensitive topic for Asian neighbors such as South Korea and China, where memories linger of Japanese aggression before and during World War Two.
Education Minister Hakubun Shimomura said the ministry was revising the manuals to teach “properly” about Japanese history and that it would make diplomatic efforts to explain the move to Japan’s neighbors.
“It is extremely important that the children who will bear our future can properly understand our territory,” he told a news conference.
He said the teaching manuals would be changed to make clear that the rocky islets controlled by South Korea but claimed by both nations, known as Takeshima in Japan and Tokdo in South Korea, were Japanese territory.
South Korea’s Foreign Ministry promptly summoned the Japanese ambassador to protest.
Earlier, the Ministry called for Japan to repeal the changes, which it said were teaching children a false claim to the islets.
“Our government strongly condemns this and asks Japan to immediately withdraw it,” it said in a statement.
The manuals will also add reference to the Senkakus, which are at the center of a dispute with China and reiterate Tokyo’s stance that these are an integral part of Japanese territory and there is no dispute over their ownership.
They will affect classes in history, geography and civics in junior and senior high schools, but are not legally binding.
Asked about the territorial rows, Shimomura said he felt it was too bad that there were competing claims to the islands and repeated that historically, the islands were part of Japan.
“We must make efforts to politely explain our position to both nations and seek their understanding,” Shimomura said.
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