Weak Asean, US response emboldens China

ON DISTANT SHORE
By Val G. Abelgas

With the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) reduced to a toothless tiger that could only urge “restraint” and express “serious concern” over developments in the region without even mentioning the name of China, we can now expect Asia’s bully to become even more assertive in its claim to nearly the entire South China Sea.

Even as China recklessly pulled an oilrig into an area in the Spratly islands also claimed by Vietnam, triggering a naval standoff between the two neighboring countries and further escalating tension in the region, all the ASEAN leaders could do was issue a toothless statement that China simply ignored.

The failure of the leaders of the 10-member aggrupation of Southeast Asian nations to come up with a stronger statement against China’s bullying tactics in the disputed sea has only confirmed ASEAN’s waning influence that has now emboldened the neighborhood toughie to assert its dominance over the region.

The weak and tentative stand by the United States on China’s aggressive behavior has not helped any and has instead led the hawks in Beijing’s leadership to believe that the Americans would not intervene in the dispute.

While the State Department and ranking US defense and military officials have repeatedly reassured allies that the US would come to their defense, Asian allies like Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam have yet to see a stronger response, such as sending warships to the area, that would show the Chinese bullies that America is seriously concerned about the situation.

The four-nation visit of US President Obama has not reassured its allies but has only led to more questions about America’s willingness to confront China, militarily if need be, if the latter elevates its assertiveness to a higher level.

A day before Obama started his Asian visit, the State Department had to clarify that the trip and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) that was going to be signed with the Philippines prior to the US President’s arrival was not directed at China. The US seemed more concerned about appeasing China than reassuring its allies.

Both the Mutual Defense Treaty and the newly signed EDCA are silent about a possible creeping invasion of territories within the Philippines’ 200-mile economic zone that are also being claimed by China. While the two agreements ensure that the US would come to the defense of the Philippines in case of external attacks, American officials have always maintained that the US would not interfere in territorial disputes.

There is no assurance that if China decides to send troops to Ayungin Shoal, Recto Bank, Mabini Reef or any other island that are well within the country’s 200-mile economic zone that the Americans would help repulse such an invasion.

There is no definite answer as to when the Americans would finally come in as far as the disputed islands and reefs are concerned. The Chinese could very well finish building the airstrip on Mabini Reef, remove the Navy derelict Sierra Madre that houses a handful of Philippine Marines, pull another oil rig to oil-rich Recto Bank and station troops on the islands and we wouldn’t know if the Americans would even help us defend these territories.

“The Obama administration risks letting this spin out of control if it doesn’t display a muscular naval presence just to remind the Chinese that they don’t own the South China Sea, yet,” said John Tkacik, a former China expert in the US State Department.

“Washington really needs to dish out the same toughness that Beijing is throwing in its face,” he said. “President Obama has to remind China that it undertook a commitment in 2002 to avoid provocative behavior in the South China Sea, and explicitly condemn Beijing for fomenting a crisis.”

Tkacik was referring to the “Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, which China signed in 2002 in Cambodia along with the ASEAN member countries. China and the other signatories resolved, among other things, to “undertake to exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability including, among others, refraining from action of inhabiting on the presently uninhabited islands, reefs, shoals, cays, and other features and to handle their differences in a constructive manner.”

With the hawks in the Chinese Communist Party, led by Premier Xi Jin-ping, at the helm, the Chinese have obviously dumped the agreement and now act in the disputed sea according to their own rules.

They have become so emboldened that a top Chinese foreign official was quoted as saying that the US is avoiding a direct confrontation with China, noting what he called the reluctance of the US towards military involvement in Syria and Ukraine.

China is obviously testing whether the US would respond in terms of sending warships to the area rather than just by words. A weak response by the Americans to China’s provocative actions could further embolden the Chinese to do even more aggressive actions.

Obviously, China has no respect for, or has its own narrow interpretation of international laws and would refuse to participate or honor any ruling in the arbitration case filed by the Philippines before international courts. While the Philippine government is right in pursuing the case, it must also take actions to prepare for any eventuality that the rising tension in the disputed sea would flare up into a shooting war.

The countries that are being bullied by China – the Philippines, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan and possibly Indonesia in the near future – cannot stand up to China alone. They have to rally the ASEAN to put up a stronger stand against China’s provocative actions and if ASEAN refuses, they should form their own alliance, hopefully with the help of the US and other nations, and stand up to the neighborhood toughie.

(valabelgas@aol.com)