Monday, September 29, 2014

Ukraine Russia Conflict Could Be Start of New Cold War


By Carl Auer 
Guardian Liberty Voice
New-Cold-WarAfter a passionate speech to the U.S. Congress where Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko said that his country’s conflict with Russia is also America’s war, pointing towards a potential start of a new Cold War, the Ukrainian leader met with President Barak Obama at the White House. While the show for Poroshenko Washington put on was one full of ceremony befitting the return of a hero to home soil, it was all for naught. Poroshenko returns home to Ukraine from the U.S. with empty hands.
Actually, Poroshenko left North America to return home with support from Canada and a humanitarian aid package from the United States. The humanitarian aid package was far removed from what Poroshenko had wanted from his United States counterpart. Obama has continued to deny sending any offensive military support to the former Soviet Union state.
While the Ukrainian president did appreciate the night vision goggles, meals ready to eat (MRE’s) and blankets from the United States, he made it clear that blankets will not win the war. The lack of firm military aid appears to come from the fear that anything beyond humanitarian aid may provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, while the Ukraine is not asking that NATO carpet bomb the Russian troops on the border, Poroshenko believes the assistance from U.S. drones, antitank weaponry and other needed defensive military aid is a necessity. A necessity that could stop the Ukrainian expected Russian invasion and the beginning of a new Cold War.
While Poroshenko heads home, reports are indicating that elite Russian military troops may be taking up positions near the borders in the eastern, southwestern and southern region of Ukraine. Poroshenko had previously stated his belief that Putin wants to recreate the former Soviet Union and that invading a former member state is likely the first step. So, while the Kremlin continues to display military posturing on the border, the Ukrainian military will likely not receive the aid they believe is needed to deter Russian aggression.
So far, Russian pressure and continual disregard to the borders of Ukraine has already forced a number of economic sanctions from Europe and the United States. However, the sanctions have failed to stop Putin to remove troop movements near the Ukrainian border. Russian military convoys have crossed the Ukrainian border without stopping to be inspected by border or customs agents.
U.S. officials believe the sanctions are working and have crippled the economy of Russia, however some U.S. lawmakers do agree with Ukrainian officials. After the Ukrainian leader spoke in front of congress, Senate Foreign Relations legislators voted to advance a Ukrainian aid package that contained non-military assistance and military assistance.
The implications from Poroshenko during his speech to Congress about the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine appeared to point to the start of a new Cold War without coming right out and saying it. In the speech, the Ukrainian President stated that while his countrymen are dying for their county, the battles that the young Ukrainian men are involved in “is not only Ukraine’s war. It is Europe’s war, and it is American’s war, too. It is a war of the free world—and for a free world.”

THE HK PROTESTS


WHAT is happenning in Hong Kong, where students mobbed the city’s leader as they took their anti-Beijing strike to government headquarters, where hundreds protested against China’s refusal to grant Hong Kong full democracy. This cannot end without an effect on the People’s Republic of China (PROC), possibly the last place on earth where Chinese Communism still reigns supreme.
Organisers said 13,000 university students launched a week-long boycott of classes, a strong showing that breathed new life into the democracy campaign which had originally been stunned by Beijing’s hardline stance.
The student protest marks the start of a campaign of civil disobedience against China’s plan to choose the nominees of candidates who will lead the former British colony. The students are hoping that Beijing will give the Hong Kong electorate full universal suffrage at 2017 elections that will choose their leader.
To show their anger at how the Communist regime in Beijing has been treating them, about a dozen students rushed towards Hong Kong’s leader, chief executive Leung Chun-ying, when he emerged from after holding a press conference.
Leung was hustled away while security officials forced the students back, escorting them from the grounds as dozens of media also joined the melee.
“This is a warning. Your actions have already severely disrupted order here,” police said over loudspeakers, while the protesters chanted: “Hong Kong belongs to us!”
Leung said at the press conference that authorities had “paid close attention to the demands for the election in 2017 by the university students” but that Beijing’s proposals were an improvement on the current state of democracy.
Alex Chow, chairman of the Hong Kong Federation of Students who challenged Leung, observed: “You can see that he has no intention of having a dialogue with the students.”
Chow threatened an escalation of the protest action if Leung refused to speak with students within 48 hours.
The park outside the Hong Kong government’s Tamar headquarters took on a carnival atmosphere as protesters trickled in under the summer sun, to attend a program including lectures on the lawns.
“The government officials, the legislators, they can look out their window and see us calling for true democracy,” 20-year-old political science student Ester Wong.
“This park has a lot of significance in Hong Kong protest movements, and we’re here to continue that tradition,” she said to hundreds of others under the shade of trees and tents.
The students are heartened by past successes, including the government’s 2012 backdown on a plan to implement patriotism classes which was abandoned in the face of mass protests outside government headquarters.
(Should Beijing back away from a confrontation with the students, this may begin the end of Communism as practiced by the Central Government. Thus, it is not expected that Beijing will give an inch to the Hong Kong students.
“Someone needs to take the lead in showing the government they’re wrong, and this time it’s up to the students,” says Ryan Lo, 19, a theater student.
“We oppose the Chinese government trying to limit the freedoms Hong Kong people deserve.”
Chinese political dissidents including Beijing-based Hu Jia called on the international community to take action to prevent a repeat of the bloody crackdown on the student-led Tiananmen Square protests.
“As widespread demonstrations grow against Beijing’s violation of its promise to allow universal suffrage, there is a danger the infamous 1989 massacre in Tiananmen Square could be repeated in Hong Kong,” said in an opinion piece from the former British Crown Colony in the Wall Street Journal.
Would Beijing actually allow another Tiananmen Square to happen?
(The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989, commonly known as the June Fourth Incident or more accurately ‘89 Democracy Movement were student-led popular demonstrations in Beijing which took place in the spring of 1989 and received broad support from city residents. The protests were forcibly suppressed by hardline leaders who ordered the military to enforce martial law in the country’s capital. 
(The crackdown became known as the Tiananmen Square Massacre or the June 4 Massacre as troops with assault rifles and tanks inflicted casualties on unarmed civilians trying to block the military’s advance towards Tiananmen Square in the heart of Beijing which student and other demonstrators had occupied for seven weeks.
(The Chinese government condemned the protests as a “counter-revolutionary riot”, and has prohibited all forms of discussion or remembrance of the events since. Due to the lack of information from China, many aspects of the events remain unknown or unconfirmed. Estimates of the death toll range from a few hundred to a few thousand.
(The protests were triggered in April 1989 by the death of former Communist Party general secretary, Hu Yaobang, a liberal reformer, who was deposed after losing a power struggle with hardliners over the direction of political and economic reform. University students marched and gathered in Tiananmen Square to mourn. Hu had also voiced grievances against inflation, limited career prospects, and corruption of the party elite. The protesters called for government accountability, freedom of the press, freedom of speech, and the restoration of workers’ control over industry. At the height of the protests, about a million people assembled in the Square.
(The government initially took a conciliatory stance toward the protesters. The student-led hunger strike galvanized support for the demonstrators around the country and the protests spread to 400 cities. Ultimately, China’s paramount leader Deng Xiaoping and other party elders resolved to use force. Party authorities declared martial law on May 20, and mobilized as many as 300,000 troops to Beijing.
(In the aftermath of the crackdown, the government conducted widespread arrests of protesters and their supporters, cracked down on other protests around China, expelled foreign journalists and strictly controlled coverage of the events in the domestic press. The police and internal security forces were strengthened. Officials deemed sympathetic to the protests were demoted or purged. Zhao Ziyang was ousted in a party leadership reshuffle and replaced with Jiang Zemin.
Political reforms were largely halted and economic reforms did not resume until Deng Xiaoping’s 1992 southern tour. The Chinese government was widely condemned internationally for the use of force against the protesters. )
Will this end in another massacre like the ‘89 one did in Tienanmen?
“The United States and the international community share the responsibility to prevent another murderous massacre,” say the students.
Tensions in Hong Kong are at their highest in years, fuelled by rising inequality as well as Beijing’s perceived interference in the affairs of the semi-autonomous territory.
A coalition of pro-democracy groups, led by Occupy Central, have labelled the election restrictions a “fake democracy” and have vowed a series of actions including a blockade of the Central financial district.
Britain handed Hong Kong back to China in 1997 under a “one country, two systems” agreement which allows civil liberties not seen on the mainland, including free speech and the right to protest.
Obviously, the PROC never thought that anyone would have the gall to demand from the PROC that they install democracy, that the HK residents got used to during the British reign in Hongkong.
Having tasted democracy under the British, Hongkong will not easily accept a Communist dictatorship!
***
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Guilt by association? Heroes or heels?



by RENE SAGUISAG

Justice Gregory Ong has been found guilty by association, arguably. Janet Napoles is bad news of course. I am happy I have no pix with her.

This paper said the other day that the Supreme Court (SC) had “declared [him] a natural born citizen” when his citizenship was questioned. A lawyer-brother of Greg and I represented him, a fellow Bedan; all his siblings are unquestionably Pinoy so why single him out? The last time I spoke with Greg was in 2007, before our family tragedy.

Assuming that the findings are accurate, I feel that the penalty may be draconian, with all due respect. Greg should move to reconsider on the penalty, there being five dissenters. In 2010, this paper noted the other day, he “was penalized for holding hearings individually instead of hearing a case as a collegial body in Davao city.” Offense? Working too hard. Greg was indeed legend in the Sandigan, where he has toiled for 16 years, for working his butt off. The story is told about a CFI Judge in Manila hearing three default cases simul. I was awed and felt he deserved a medal. In the context at hand, the three magistrates and the judge are heroes in my eyes.

Now, is Macoy a hero rating a Libingan ng Mga Bayani (LMB) burial, nullifying Edsa’86?

Sadly, many still buy the Marcosian myth that he proclaimed martial law on Thursday, September 21, 1972; in fact just another day in the office for the nation. The correct date is September 23.

Move his remains to the Libingan ng mga Bayani (LMB)? Sen. Chiz Escudero supports the idea. He is the son of a Macoy Cabinet member so I am not surprised that he never really felt nor shared our pain.

Veep Jojobama Binay, jailed more than once, compromises by suggesting full military honors to Macoy in Batac, not altogether unlike giving Hitler full military honors in his hometowns in Austro-Hungary and Passau, Germany. Schicklguber was his surname then which would not fall trippingly from the tongue. Jojobama would amend, not erase, Edsa’86.

At my age (75), I can compromise. Why not rename Libingan ng mga Bayani (LMB) to Libingan ng mga Sundalo at Mga Bayani (instead of the naughty Libingan ng mga Bayani at Iba Pa). We need to be creative. If martial law author Macoy is moved to the LMB, why not move again Emman Lacaba, my friend and pro bono client (like Greg), transferred from a shallow grave in Davao, to the old cemetery in Pateros and to the new one there, and now where he belongs, the LMB?

FVR was kind enough to read my piece last week and enfaced on a margin his help by way of materials in case I would “want to pursue the subject” on where Macoy should finally rest. Na-onse si FVR ni Roquito Ablan and the Marcoses who had committed a direct flight from Hawaii to Laoag (done) and immediate burial (not so). Born on Septiembre Onse (1917, Macoy said, but under oath in Hawaii, he said 1916), a clear warning of what the criminal genius, would be up to; fruit does not fall far from the tree. The egocentric Marcoses have divided us long enough and should let go, for unity, Jojobama’s compromise objective.

The effort is worthy of a better cause. Focus we should on filing claims under the human rights compensation law (R.A. No. 10368). MABINI ace Oca Rodriguez, a Congressman, has said he is not filing any claim, not the only one not to monetize his suffering but if all would so behave, no one or few would file. The Marcoses would say, see wala naman pala. Hence, all victims should file, to confirm the extent and scope of the violations. Of course we cannot rope in anybody or everybody; but, Ka Oca should consider donating his deserved share to a worthy cause like the Iglesia ni Saguisag, isang maralitang taga-lungsod, naging QC Batang City Jail candidate-member lang, for calling Macoy in court a “super-subversive,” in early 1983 in the We Forum trial.

The people must not forget that “day of infamy” in Philippine history, September 23, 1972, that led many to subvert. The emailer said: “The great injustice in the history of the Philippines is for some people in the halls of power to rehabilitate traitors, tyrants and thieves and make us forget with revisionism. A national catharsis is long overdue. We should move on. But first a wrong has to be righted.”

Shall we stop marking September 21 as special? I feel forlorn that Marcosian numerology persists. Marcos was fond of seven and its multiples so he spun the myth that September 21 was when martial law descended upon the land. Simply not true. Spurious.

In journalism and history, we should have a passion for precision in expression. The September 21 superstition must end.

Indeed, NEVER AGAIN! – should we play up September 21 as Proc. No. 1081 day. For Ninoy and a few others, it was midnight of September 22. For the rest of the nation, September 23, when the day began with no radio-TV and no newspapers. I was in San Beda that afternoon but only lawyer Byron Bocar, now with the human rights compensation board, and stude Alex Almario (one such was mentioned in the Napoles saga, which could be toxic and hazardous to one’s well-being) gave me company. A long nightmare began, to end on February 25, 1986, when PNoy’s Mom took power.

I see the pixes of the Aquinos’ US home on Commonwealth Avenue, the street where my Dulce lived with Millie C and Mary C, maybe a mile from where the Aquinos resided later. There Ninoy and I had a marathon ten-hour conversation in October 1982 (I’d say he spoke for nine hours and 45 minutes, riveting, cum gestures, and I, for 15, to remind him occasionally I wasn’t part of the furniture). The Jesuits’ Boston College is just across, attended by my Dulce, some Aquino daughters, and Grace Poe, where eighteen Septembers ago, Prez Cory spoke, and said, “I pray with all my heart, I work with all my might, and the rest I leave to God.”

How I wish PNoy had the time to be in Fort Warren just outside of Wyoming, and see the Bells of Balangiga, which rang on September 28, 1901; the natives showed true grit and got massacred, in gross violation of human rights.

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Abad deserved students’ ire


ON DISTANT SHORE
By Val G. Abelgas  
Abad and Aquino (File Photo)
Abad and Aquino (File Photo)
While I cannot condone the rough treatment accorded Budget Secretary Butch Abad by some students of the University of the Philippines last week, when he was pelted with stones and coins after a speech at the School of Economics, I must also say that I quite agree with their demand that he be made accountable for the illegal disbursement of funds under the Disbursement Allocation Program that had been declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court.
It is indeed infuriating that despite the high tribunal’s directive “to investigate and accordingly prosecute all government officials and/or private individuals for possible criminal offenses related to the irregular, improper and/or unlawful disbursement/utilization of all funds under the Pork Barrel System,” not a single soul, particularly Abad, has been subject to investigation nor prosecution by the Department of Justice.
Instead of backing down, as the Supreme Court has ordered, the Department of Budget and Management under Abad has continued to include in the proposed 2015 national budget billions of pesos in un-programmed funds.
According to former Senator and Manila Times columnist Francisco S. Tatad, Malacañang included huge prohibited lump sums in the 2014 and 2015 national budgets. He noted that for the current year, the un-programmed funds amount to P139.9 billion, while the Special Purpose Funds amount to P282.6 billion.
He said that for 2015, the un-programmed amount is down to P123.1 billion, but the Special Purpose Funds allotment goes up to P378.6 billion. He cited reports that the congressmen who were receiving P70 million each before the PDAF was outlawed, would now receive P108 million per.
Either Abad has no respect for the law or the Supreme Court decision, or the need to create lump sums for the 2016 elections is so dire that he is willing to risk admonition from the court.
Abad is also trying to save himself from possible prosecution and to allow him and his Malacanang colleagues to continue their illegal DAP program by asking Congress to pass a bill he has submitted that seeks to redefine “savings” and make the law retroactive.
In a letter to House Speaker Feliciano Belmonte Jr., Abad asked Congress to adopt and prioritize the draft bill that effectively redefines the practice of impounding savings that the SC ruled as illegal and unconstitutional. He even requested Belmonte to consider the bill a priority measure.
“The fact that Abad requested the Speaker to accommodate the redefinition of ‘savings’ is a clear admittance of his criminal liability, and now he wants to use Congress to absolve him,” said opposition leader Rep. Tobias Tiangco.
Section 7 of the Abad bill reads: “To dispel any doubt as to this legislative intent, the provisions in this Act shall be retroactive and curative in nature. Accordingly, all previous acts relating to the definition of savings, the rules on augmentation and other related concepts, as well as the use and release of the Unprogrammed Funds made, applied, consummated, executed, undertaken, and implemented prior to the passage of this Act are hereby confirmed, ratified and validated.”
With the redefinition of savings, the DBM wants unspent funds for programmed projects even in the middle of the year to be pooled as savings, contrary to the SC ruling.
Tiangco also revealed last week that Malacanang released P78.38 billion from the Disbursement Acceleration Program over a period of three months that coincided with the impeachment of Chief Justice Renato Corona, with senators who sat as judges in his trial and lawmakers who acted as prosecutors getting huge sums for undisclosed projects.
Tiangco said that based on a revised list that the DBM was forced to release to the House last week to meet the deadline set for the budget deliberations, the lawmakers started receiving their DAP allocations without the corresponding details of where the money went two days before Corona was impeached by the House on Dec. 12, 2011, the same day that the Senate convened itself into an impeachment court.
The DBM list showed that President Aquino approved and released the DAP funds in six tranches. In 2011, the President approved the DAP in two tranches – some P67.38 billion on Oct. 12 and P11 billion on Dec. 21. There were three releases in 2012 – P21.21 billion on June 27, P2.73 billion on Sept. 5 and P33. 07 on Dec. 21. There was only a single release of the DAP in 2013 amounting to P8.96 billion in June 14.
The six DAP fund releases amounted to P144.378 billion, which under the Supreme Court ruling, were all illegally disbursed.
Another bombshell revealed during the budget hearing was that, according to ACT party-list Rep. Antonio Tinio, Malacanang deliberately bloated the amounts for unfilled positions, maternity pay and bonuses of teachers and state workers so that it could impound up to P145 billion to fund the illegal Disbursement Acceleration Program for three years.
Tinio demanded that Congress delete special provisions inserted by the Palace in the 2015 national budget that allow it to again impound funds by midyear next year. He pressed for the deletion of P118.14 billion in the “Miscellaneous Personnel Benefits Fund” (MPBF), which was a lump sum under the direct control of Aquino.
Tinio said the MPBF, which has now bloated to 50 times its level in 2005 (P2.36 billion) and increased by 67 percent since Aquino became president (P70.658 billion in 2011), was deliberately bloated to put more discretionary funds in the hands of the President.
Based on all these revelations, it is obvious that Abad is no saint and deserved to be the subject of protests, albeit not in the manner with which the UP students manhandled him. That he remains in the confidence of Aquino and free from any investigation probably brought out the students’ ire.
(valabelgas@aol.com)

Use of China’s anti-ship missile against US could trigger nuclear war


Source: Want China Times

China's three DF-21D missile launchers. (Internet photo)
China’s three DF-21D missile launchers. (Internet photo)
If China were to launch its DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile against a US carrier battle group in the Western Pacific, the US could respond with a full nuclear retaliation, according to Robert Farley, an assistant professor at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce of University of Kentucky in a recent article written for Washington-based National Interest magazine.
Because it takes at least 15 minutes for an anti-ship ballistic missile to reach its target, an aircraft carrier has enough time to avoid the attack in open sea. Farley said that the missile requires terminal guidance, as it must revise its flight path after reentering the atmosphere. It needs to be adjusted remotely or needs to have the capacity to identify the carrier on its own.
Facing this potential threat against its aircraft carrier, the United States Navy is working very hard to develop ship-borne anti-ballistic missile technology. “The development of the DF-21D may have contributed to the USN’s decision to focus on air defense ships such as the Arleigh Burke Flight III capable of ballistic missile interception,” said Farley. At the same time, the US Navy is also exploring ways of destroying DF-21D launch sites with cruise and hypersonic missiles in the event of a war.
Farley states that a DF-21D anti-ballistic missile is capable of sinking a US aircraft carrier and killing the 6,000 American personnel on board the ship. Like any other medium-range ballistic missile, the DF-21D is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, however China must count on very cool heads in Washington for the fifteen minutes between launch and impact, he said, as such a move could lead to a degree of escalation that China has not prepared for at all, he said.
In extreme circumstances it could start a decision process that will bring full nuclear retaliation from the United States, according to Farley. Without proper second strike capability against the United States, it makes the situation even less stable for China. The author concluded that the DF-21D cannot prevent the US Navy from destroying Chinese ships, only change the method by which they do so.

Corruption surge


By Emil Jurado

I love reading about how President Aquino trumpets his alleged achievements against corruption. It gives me material for my column —I can write about what is in fact happening. 

For instance, there is the corruption surge in an administration that claims to tread the straight path.

Mr. Aquino’s most laughable story is the detention of his predecessor, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, and three opposition senators. These are supposed to support his claim that he is winning the fight against corruption.

Achievement, my foot! Doesn’t the President know that anybody charged in court is presumed innocent unless proven otherwise?

And what about President’s Aquino’s own allies who are similarly involved in cases of corruption? What is he doing about them? The President defends his friends in the face of incontrovertible proof of wrongdoing. That’s Daang Matuwid for you.

It has been months after it was revealed that Budget Secretary Butch Abad, Agriculture Secretary Proceso Alcala and TESDA (Technical Education and Skills Development Authority) Director General Joel Villanueva were likewise involved with Napoles. Nothing has been done.

It has also been awhile since the National Bureau of Investigation found that many of the President’ allies misused their Priority Development Assistance Fund. Again, nothing.

And now no less than the chief of the Philippine National Police, General Alan Purisima, is facing charges of plunder and graft. The President has been quick to defend him.

It seems that Mr. Aquino thinks the people he appoints can do no wrong!

That the President continues to lambast the previous administration because of its alleged corruption is the height of hypocrisy, dishonesty and lack of integrity.

So why doesn’t he just let his problematic people go?

The Aquino administration has a very shallow bench to chose from, it is believed. This is why the President packs his team with his Ateneo classmates, shooting buddies, close personal friends and loyalists.

To me, President Aquino is suffering from delusion. He thinks his people are all angels. It’s an affliction, actually.

* * *

I have been asked if I thought the allegations hurled at Vice President Jejomar Binay would affect his survey ratings. He has been shown as the “man to beat” in the next presidential elections if the polls were held today.

It could, sure. But not to the extent of dislodging him as the most favored presidential hopeful.

Those charges could affect his ratings in urban centers where people rely on newspapers, radio and television. This refers mostly to the A and B class, but not to the “masa,” which is the bigger base of Binay.

Don’t forget that Binay has campaigned in so many places nationwide where even presidential candidates have failed to go before him. As mayor of Makati, he has helped so many municipalities and cities, giving them ambulances and other forms of assistance.

Don’t forget, too, that he is the head of the Boy Scouts of the Philippines. His portrait is plastered in all the calendars in households nationwide.

What has been happening at the Senate is trial by publicity. Senators Alan Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes are obviously salivating for higher office. People know this.

* * *

On the proposed lifestyle check of PNP Chief Purisima and all policemen, why not extend this to all government officials, from the President down to security guards and janitors? If this check must be done, do it to all.

I included security guards and janitors because I recall that a security guard at Customs was found to have a Porsche, obviously beyond his capacity.

We can expect howls of objection from government people, especially officials, but, this appears imperative in the wake of so many members of the Philippine National Police living beyond their means and engaged in conspicuous consumption. Where do they get their money in their first place?

Actually, lifestyle checks would not be necessary if only Congress would finally enact the Freedom of Information bill. People will be able to find out where their money is going, and to whom. But, strangely, President Aquino refuses to certify the FOI bill as urgent. I cannot understand.

Lifestyle checks of government people may appear drastic, but at the rate corrupt government officials are coming out of the woodwork, a cleansing process is needed to restore faith and confidence in the government.

CHINA’S TWO-FRONT DIPLOMACY


WHEN China’s President Xi Jinping took s office, he first brought about a new atmosphere around several domestic issues such as the public’s livelihood to anti-corruption and institutional reforms of state organizations. And now, he is shifting China’s foreign policy to a more proactive stance, or what one may well call “two-front diplomacy.” 
 
China’s recent diplomatic outreaches, according to Jin Kai, a geopolitical analyst of The Diplomat Magazine on Asian-Pacific affairs, can be grouped into two major categories: “Go West” and “Leap East.” First, “Go West” emphasizes the plan for “a belt and a road” (referring to the “Silk Road Economic Belt” and the 21st century “Maritime Silk Road”). 
 
This strategy is significant, Kai pointed out, in that China will need to build this “belt and road” to realize a “community of common interests” or “community of common destiny” with China’s western neighbors, other Central Asian countries, and the Arab world. The Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road, he pointed out, are essential to enhancing and securing reciprocal economic cooperation between China and the regions to China’s west. This strategy also highlights China’s interest in economic integration with these neighboring regions.
 
As President Xi Jinping put it, “a belt and a road” are “the path to mutual benefit and win-win [cooperation].” Two facts support this “Go West” strategy. First, there’s the long history of trade and communication between China and the western regions. Second, there is an ever-growing need for furthering economic cooperation and joint development in this area. 
 
In looking west, Kai continued, China is also driven by geopolitical concerns and regional security threats such as terrorism. Accordingly, China sees the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a major platform for furthering multilateral cooperation on important regional issues. In its “SCO Yellow Book 2014,” the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) argues that as the U.S. adjusts its strategy and returns to the Asia-Pacific region, China needs to find more developmental space in the western regions to mitigate the pressure from the east.
 
But China is not neglecting the eastern regions either; thus the corresponding “Leap East.” This strategy is not confined to the East Asian region either. Although China has been working hard on its charm offensive toward South Korea, given the fact that the ROK-U.S. alliance has existed for a much longer period of time compared to the history of Sino-ROK diplomatic relations, and the fact that the Japan-U.S. alliance is growing stronger, China won’t be able to easily gain the upper hand in the East Asian game, particularly in the short term. 
 
The U.S. has been substantially engaged in this region since the end of World War II and still maintains relative advantages in its confidence and strategic maneuverability. Therefore China cannot afford to be immersed in the enduring East Asian conundrum. Instead, it could be a better choice for China to take a “leap” from East Asia, of course with the precondition that China fully uses it capability to maintain the relative stability of the East Asian region.
 
China does not need to directly confront and seek to break through the first and second island chains; it can simply “leap” over them and find more diplomatic maneuvering space on the other side. This “Leap East” was reflected in President Xi Jinping’s two important visits to Latin America since he took office in late 2012, one in June 2013 and the other in July 2014.
 
As in China’s push west, economic cooperation has been a major driving force for the “Leap East.” China will probably outpace the EU and become the second largest trading partner of Latin America, and eventually pass the U.S to claim the top spot. 
 
From a geopolitical view, Kai concluded, there’s significant strategic meaning to China stabilizing and extending its influence, either economically or politically, in the traditional backyard of the U.S. And there’s another interesting angle worth considering: many Latin American countries maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan, yet Beijing does not seem to be holding this against potential partners as it seeks to further its economic and diplomatic existence in the region. 
 
This hints that Beijing has a long-term strategy for the region and has intentionally adopted a more practical and flexible diplomacy.
 
***
 
What’s happening today in Hong Kong, where thousands of college and university students are protesting Beijing’s decision to restrict voting reforms, is a turning point of the democratic movement in that southern city of China and possibly in the mainland itself. 
 
China began seeking democracy and constitutionalism a hundred years ago, recalled Yang Henjun, an independent scholar who received his Ph.D degree from the University of Technology, Sydney, Australia. 
 
“Today, these are still far-off dreams,” Henjun said. “At first, they said China was too poor and couldn’t handle democracy, so everyone devoted all their energy to making money. When we became rich, they said that the Chinese people’s character is too poor and isn’t appropriate for democracy, so we studied hard and hoped that they would think we had reached the level of character they required.
 
 “When the education level had reached a certain point, they suddenly said that democracy doesn’t suit China – it’s a Western system. So we began to resist, saying, ‘Give us an Eastern system then, give us democracy with Chinese characteristics.’ And they replied: ‘You are already living in a democracy, can you really not feel it? And so they began to preserve stability; they began to suppress dissidents.’ ”
 
The latest phase in the battle for democracy in China has started in Hong Kong, a semi-autonomous city in southern China after it took control of the former British colony in 1997. And possibly it will spread to the mainland in China.
 
***
 
Quote of the Day: “Democracy is good. I say this because other systems are worse!” – Jawaharlal Nehru
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