NOT OVER YET: 'We have no doubt the brothers were not acting alone'

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - "We have no doubt the brothers were not acting alone," a source close to the investigation says. "The devices used to detonate the two bombs were highly sophisticated and not the kinds of thing people learn from Google.

"They were too advanced. Someone gave the brothers the skills and it is now our job to find out just who they were. Agents think the sleeper cell has up to a dozen members and has been waiting several years for their day to come."

To date, a man and two women 60 miles from Boston were arrested by FBI agents in the hours before Dzhokhar's capture after a bloody shootout on Friday.

Stepping up the investigation, a specialist team of CIA and FBI interrogators were flown to a Boston hospital to grill wounded Dzhokhar about the secret group. Caught after hiding out in a boat parked in a garden in locked-down Watertown, Dzhokhar is said to have run his brother over as he escaped in a stolen car while Tamerlan lay handcuffed on the ground. The brothers were carrying six bombs with them at the time - three of which exploded - as well as a handgun and rifle.

The wounded Dzhokhar remains handcuffed to his hospital bed under armed guard. The other three suspects arrested in the port of New Bedford are also believed to be of college age.

A bizarre detail that has emerged in the investigation after the bombing was the fact that Dzhokhar went to a college party two days after the bombs wreaked havoc at the finish line. Dzhokhar reportedly "looked relaxed" as he joined in a party at the campus on Wednesday night. A few hours later, Dzhokhar was involved in the shootout that cost his brother his life.

Investigators are now piecing together on how the "well-mannered" brothers of Chechen origin were radicalized. According to friends and family, the elder brother Tamerlan had recently become obsessed with Islam. He mysteriously left the U.S. in January last year to spend six months in Russia.

It also emerged the Bureau interviewed Tamerlan two years ago, at the request of the Russian government, but could not establish that he had ties to terrorist radicals. "It's a key thread for investigators," Senior FBI counter-terrorism official Kevin Brock says.

An especially worrying Internet clue was Tamerlan's Russian-language YouTube page that featured links to extremist Islamic sites. It has since been pulled down. 

The brothers' mother, Zubeidat, speaking from Russia, said she claimed the boys had been framed by the FBI over the two bombs last Monday that left three dead and 178 injured.

She claimed the FBI had been keeping watch on her eldest boy for up to five years. She said: "They knew what my son was doing. They knew what sites on the internet he was going to.

"They were telling me that he was really an extremist leader and that they were afraid of him. They told me whatever information he is getting, he gets from these extremist sites. They were controlling him."

© 2013, Distributed by NEWS CONSORTIUM.

Vietnam’s Subs to Challenge China in the South China Sea

Source: Patriots Billboard

Interesting How So Many Countries Are Increasing Their Military From Russia. Like So Many Things Going On Around The World Of Politics, “Follow The Money” Is Usually What It’s About.

Russian sailors tending to a Varshavyanka submarine in Sevastopol, Ukraine. (Oleg Nikishin/Getty Images)

Vietnam is to take delivery of two Russian diesel-electric submarines this year, complicating an evolving military dynamic in the South China Sea. The new subs represent both an effort by Vietnam to defend its territorial claims against China as well as a bid by Russia to advance its economic and strategic claims in the region.

Vietnam’s new Varshavyanka-class submarines will give it a new bargaining chip in an ongoing struggle over competing maritime claims. While the two nations have mostly engaged in “fishing fleet diplomacy” until now, the acquisition of the submarines sends a clear signal that Vietnam will not quietly acquiesce to China’s effort to claim the entire South China Sea as Chinese territory.

Background

Russia announced last month that it would deliver two diesel-electric submarines to Vietnam this year, the first of a total of six due to be delivered by 2016.

The first Varshavyanka class subs were launched in 1997. The Varshavyanka submarines being sold to Vietnam are an improved design that utilize better stealth technology and have an extended range. Thet will carry the Klub missile system (NATO designation: SS-N-27 Sizzler) and are primarily designed for anti-ship and anti-submarine warfare in shallow waters, making them an ideal platform for the South China Sea.

Vietnam ordered the six submarines from Russia in 2009 in response to growing tensions with China. The two nations have an ongoing territorial dispute over the Spratley and Paracel island chains. China declared in July of last year that it was creating a military garrison on a tiny South China Sea island known as Woody Island in the Paracels, which Vietnam also claims.

China has taken other steps to promote its territorial claims to the South China sea, such as issuing new passports with a map showing the entire sea area as Chinese territory. China also recently announced that Chinese cruise ships will begin tours of supposed Chinese territory in the region next month. Since the tiny islands lack adequate tourism facilities, tourists would visit islets by day and sleep on the cruise ships at night.

There have been several low-level skirmishes between the two nations’ maritime assets. On March 26, Hanoi publically complained that the Chinese Navy set fire to a Vietnamese fishing vessel. There also has been tension between Philippine and Chinese ships in the region.

Maritime disputes in the South China Sea are about much more than squabbling over tiny specks of land. There are an estimated 28 billion barrels of oil lying under the seabed in the South China Sea and large amounts of natural gas. As a result, the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) surrounding disputed islands are leading to competing oil and gas claims.

Meanwhile, Russia has been strengthening defense ties with Vietnam over the past several years. This coincides both with the two nations’ growing economic ties, especially in the energy sector, and Russia’s effort to expand the range of its navy.

Currently, Russia’s state-owned petroleum company, Gazprom, is jointly exploring two different blocks in Vietnam’s EEZ in the South China Sea. Vietnam also operates a joint offshore oil exploration operation with an Indian firm.

In July of last year, Russia’s naval chief confirmed that Russia was engaged in talks with Vietnam to establish a new Russian naval base at Cam Ranh Bay. A Russian Ministry of Defense official visited Cam Ranh Bay last month.

Russia has several naval contracts with Vietnam over the next decade. Russian defense officials have said its navy will assist in launching the Vietnamese submarine fleet and will train crews for the vessels.

China has complained to Russia and India for their presence in the region, but both states have ignored these complaints.

Analysis

While other nations in the region besides China already own submarines, Vietnam’s acquisition of these ships could affect the power balance in the South China Sea and send a message to Beijing.

China is actively seeking to create de facto sovereignty over the entire region. Its latest round of naval exercises last month, which reached far into the southern South China Sea and included amphibious landings and aircraft, was a brazen indication of this.

Most regional actors have no recourse but to let this happen since they do not have the political will or military capabilities to stand up to China. Vietnam, on the other hand, has continued to stake its claims.

While Vietnam could not decisively defeat China in a naval battle, it may be willing to confront Chinese naval forces in the hope that the presence of Vietnamese naval assets will convince China to alter its aggressive efforts to claim the South China Sea.

Vietnam may also hope that by forcing a military standoff with China, it could force international mediation, perhaps by the UN. Such an outcome appears unlikely since China has steadfastly refused all multilateral efforts to reduce tensions in the South China Sea. Beijing has instead exclusively relied on bilateral talks which it can dominate without risking rulings or observations by third parties that may go against its South China Sea policy.

Russia’s interest in Vietnam, both militarily and economically, is growing. It desires to have the ability to project power and influence beyond its borders—something it has not enjoyed since the Soviet era.

The sale of Russian submarines to Vietnam allows Russia to enter the South China Sea controversy. While it still is years away from the realization of a Russian naval base in the region, it is happy to bolster Vietnam, both to cater to a long-time ally and to offset American efforts to court it and possibly gain basing rights for U.S. Navy ships in Cam Ranh Bay.

Conclusion

The Varshavyanka serves as a clear manifestation of Vietnam’s emerging economic and military relationship with Russia. It also helps fulfill Russia’s national power-projection agenda. As a result, it is a win-win for both nations.

Vietnam knows that it cannot defeat China’s navy in a naval confrontation. However, the addition of the Varshavyanka to Vietnam’s arsenal is intended to send a clear signal to China that Vietnam will not stand by and let China grab control of the South China Sea by default. It also signifies Russia’s intention to assist Vietnam in its struggle to assert its territorial rights.

http://patriotsbillboard.org/vietnams-subs-to-challenge-china-in-the-south-china-sea/

INC vote game changer—Miriam

By Angie M. Rosales
The Daily Tribune 

Says ‘double-crossing’ senators stricken off Iglesia vote list

With the solid Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) vote, the rankings in all these pre-election surveys won’t likely reflect the standings of the current crop of senators who are, in various surveys, leading the senatorial survey slate pack.
This was the prediction of controversial Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago who yesterday said that the “nine million strong” INC will again be voting as a bloc and will emerge as an election game changer as the INC bloc vote is being claimed by the senator to be “tagetting” reelectionist senators from being included in the INC vote for the May 13, 2013 polls.

Santiago doused cold water on the administration camp, that this early, has already been claiming an administration majority victory in the senatorial polls, but stressing that the INC ticket will be geared toward punishing certain reelectionist senators who may have “double-crossed” the influential religious group.

The administration-led coalition Team PNoy is carrying five out of the six reelectionist upper chamber members in their slate, namely Senators Francis “Chiz” Escudero, Loren Legarda, Alan Peter Cayetano, Antonio Trillanes IV and Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel while the United Nationalist Alliance’ (UNA) lone reelectionist is Sen. Gregorio Honasan.

“INC, out of patriotism, took a strong position during a recent political controversy. Certain reelectionist senators reportedly promised to support the INC position; but out of opportunism, reneged on their promise when the hour came,” Santiago claimed. The senator is said to have consistently received the backing of the INC in the past elections.

But Santiago refused to divulge further details of this alleged incident, “because it might violate the privacy of the INC.”

But it was fairly evident that the senator was obviously referring to the issue concerning the impeachment proceedings last year of former Supreme Court Chief Justice Renato Corona as there were reports that the INC had allegedly sought some senator-judges and requested them to vote for the acquittal of the impeached Chief Justice.

Such reports allegedly prompted President Aquino to “visit” and “touch base” with INC executive minister Eduardo Manalo on the matter of the impeachment proceedings of Corona.

Reports are that the INC head and the current Palace tenant are not in good terms.

Team PNoy campaign manager, Sen. Franklin Drilon on Thursday, however, expessed confidence in the strong chances of the administration slate dominating the senatorial race, even in the so-called “solid north”, in the face of the claim of the opposition United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) that the Ilocos Regions were its bailiwicks.
“The success of the sorties by our individual candidates is reflected in the surveys in Regions 1 and 2 which follow the national results of having eight or nine Team PNoy candidates in the top 12. We are consistently dominating the polls there. We are confident that this coalition will hold until May 13,” Drilon was quoted as saying.

Santiago, however, said that senatorial candidates should not be complacent about their survey rankings, because the INC is now said to have 9 million voters who, following INC practice, will vote as a bloc.
“You don’t doublecross the INC and get away with it,” she warned.

As such, the recently released survey results showing a supposed 9-3 standing in favor of Team PNoy, might be “radically changed” after the INC releases its official list of approved senatorial candidates, expected this month.

“The survey results released last Tuesday showed that in this snapshot in time, it is 9 – 3 for the adminis-00tration coalition. The conventional wisdom is that the top 9 are sure of winning; in this short list, it is 7 – 2 for the administration. But the INC vote might still trump the survey results.

But even as Santiago claims that the INC vote will radically change the rankings of the administration reelectionist senators, she also claims that the next Senate will be predominantly composed of the following: 16 administration senators; five opposition senators; and three independent senators,” she said.

Based on her prediction, Santiago noted the possibility of the following Team PNoy members winning in the polls, namely: Edgardo “Sonny” Angara, Paolo Benigno “Bam” Aquino, Alan Peter Cayetano, Loren Legarda, Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel, Grace Poe, Antonio Trillanes and Cynthia Villar.

However, following her math on the 9 million vote strong Iglesia vote, there are certain Team PNoy senatorial candidates who are still in the lower rung of the surveys and a loss of 9 million votes, following her logic, will then bring down and out if the list certain administration candidates.

Angara, Aquino, Pimentel and Trillanes are in the bottom six in the surveys and 9 million votes can get them out of the Senate race.

From the UNA camp, Santiago named Nancy Binay, and JV Ejercito Estrada possibly joining the ranks of the opposition bloc while it will be a toss between Honasan and Jack Enrile for the last remaining seat.

She also said that the next Senate President will definitely come from the administration coalition, because the administration will have 16 senators, the opposition five senators, and an independent bloc will have three senators, including herself.

“With 16 senators more or less in the Senate, it is a no-brainer that the administration will get to pick the next Senate President from the most senior members of the coalition,” she said.

Santiago said that the so-called “Catholic vote” will not be a factor in the coming May elections.

She explained that the campaign by certain Catholic parishes against senators who voted in favor of the Reproductive Health Law is merely an act of vengeance, saying: “Vengeance is an attitude that evokes the Old Testament, and is incompatible with the emphasis on Christian love in the New Testament.”

“It makes me squirm when I watch on television a cleric mouthing a political vocabulary. It makes my toes curl,” Santiago said.

Santiago also said that because of the numerical edge enjoyed by the administration coalition, the next Senate President will come from the senior members of the coalition, namely: Sergio Osmeña III, Franklin Drilon, Cynthia Villar, or Teofisto Guingona III.

The senator said that depending on the effect of the solid INC vote, the administration coalition will have 16 senators, including Senators Angara, Aquino, Alan Cayetano, Pia Cayetano, Drilon, Escudero, Guingona III, Legarda, Marcos, Jr., Osmeña III, Pimentel III, Poe, Recto, Sotto III, Trillanes IV, and Villar.

In contrast, Santiago said the opposition coalition will only have five senators: Enrile, Estrada, Binay, Ejercito and either Honasan or Jack Ponce Enrile.

The senator said that a bloc of independent senators will consist of Revilla and Lapid, who are both from Lakas; and herself, coming from her own People’s Reform Party (PRP).

Santiago spoke at the annual national convention of the Philippine Masons with an audience of some 2,000 members, held at Iloilo City yesterday (April 25). There are over 25,000 Freemasons in the country.

http://www.tribune.net.ph/index.php/headlines/item/13375-inc-vote-game-changer%E2%80%94miriam

COCKTALES | Aboitizes make twice more money, but get a fifth of Zobels' pay

Victor C. Agustin

The Aboitizes, long described as the Ayalas of Cebu, may have eclipsed Ayala Corp in market capitalization and profitability, but their holding company, Aboitiz Equity Ventures, still trails Ayala Corp when it comes to the intricate art of executive remuneration.

The Aboitiz holding company cleared a P23.9 billion profit last year, as against the P10.6 billion made by the Zobel holding company.

Despite spinning twice more money, AEV chief executive Erramon Aboitiz and four top executives last year took home P71.95 million in combined compensation, one-fifth of the P398-million pay check of Ayala chairman and CEO Jaime Augusto Zobel and his team.

The Aboitiz salary scale is even more modest than that of another Spanish-Filipino holding firm, A. Soriano Corp, even though the latter has been reduced to a ghost of its 20th-century glory.

For 2012, Anscor rewarded its chairman and chief executive Andres Soriano III and four other top officers P84.59 million on the back of a P1.49 billion profit, mainly passive income from investments.

Even in the boardroom, the Aboitizes behave more like the economical Cebuanos in doling out perks to their directors, who happen to be part of the extended Aboitiz-Moraza clan.

For example, chairman and second cousin Jon Ramon Aboitiz gets P150,000 for every board meeting, which is held every month, while directors receive P100,000 each. There are no year-end bonuses for board members and there are not even stock options for its officers.

Over at Ayala Corp, each director is entitled to P1.2 million in annual retainer fee, in addition to P200,000 for every board meeting. And Ayala's stock options for its directors and officers are, to quote the company slogan, pioneering the future with their industry-leading package.

Take for example John Philip Orbeta, who heads Ayala's support services group including human resources, corporate communications and communications technology departments. The 51-year-old ex-Watson Wyatt executive already has accumulated 376,914 common shares through options since joining the management committee in 2005.

As of Thursday's prices, Orbeta's pile was already worth a retirement-inducing P235 million.

Soriano sails on
And speaking of Andres Soriano III, the former San Miguel chief executive has ditched his award-winning and beloved Alegre despite the 21-meter performance yacht having been built only in 2008.

Instead, Soriano has acquired a newer and sleeker version from the same builder, Mills Design of Ireland; he even gave his new maritime joy an old, familiar name, Alegre.

The new boat will see action next month at the 2013 Rolex Capri Sailing Week Volcano Race, the start of the sailing season in the Mediterranean. Soriano, incidentally, won the same grueling race in 2011 with his old Alegre.

PNoy uncles need help 
For the nth time, the PNoy uncles and aunts running the Central Azucarera de Tarlac have postponed the holding of annual stockholders' meeting for their failure to find independent directors to serve the financially-challenged refinery.

From the original January 29, the annual meeting has had to be postponed to February 26, then to April 12 and May 10 and now to June 25.

Reason for the new postponement? The continuing failure to find replacements for independent directors George Weber-Hoehl and Renato Padilla, according to the company's regulatory filings.

The scarcity of suitable nominees comes despite the installation of PNoy's eldest sister, Ma. Elena Cruz, as treasurer to help sort out the refinery's finances.

The management of the Hacienda Luisita-based refinery was passed on to PNoy uncle, former Tarlac congressman Jose Cojuangco Jr., after long-time chief executive, elder brother Pedro Cojuangco, passed away in 2011.
Cory Aquino-era environment secretary Fulgencio Factoran Jr., who had served as
independent director of the Hacienda Luisita-based refinery for a number of years, has a short, swift advice on how to turn the sugar mill around.

According to Factoran, the Cojuangcos should allow their cousins, the Lopas, to manage the refinery or consider a more pride-swallowing alternative, that is, to sell out to the tandem of cousin Eduardo Cojuangco Jr. and San Miguel president Ramon Ang.

"They have more business sense," Factoran said.

Money talks
o Cebu Pacific has secured landing rights in Melbourne's second airport, Avalon, with the Gokongwei airline planning to launch a service in time for the fourth-quarter peak travel season.

o The high-end Singapore restaurant chain, Crystal Jade, is opening a branch in The Fort Friday, after the roaring success of its more affordable brand, the breathlessly named Crystal Jade La Mian Xiao Long Bao, at Greenhills. Rather than dim sum and noodles, the Fort branch, also owned by franchise partners Mike Munoz and Edward Hwang, will serve lobster dishes at a pocket-biting P6,500 a kilo and bird's nest soup at tongue-scalding P1,780 per person.

o Economist Bernardo Villegas, who rose to fame during the late Marcos years railing against crony capitalism only to resurrect post-Edsa as nominee director of the Romualdez-controlled Benguet Corp, is leading a business delegation to the United States this week along with Benguet chief executive Benjamin Philip Romualdez to drum up investments for the country. 

Heard through the grapevine
A Taiwanese firm, Medtecs International, has gathered enough cojones to sue the top Philippine Navy brass right in their home base in Taguig for alleged infringement of Medtecs' trademark camouflage textile.
E-mail Vic Agustin at cocktales_tv5@yahoo.com.

China’s new stealth wars

As China’s economic power has grown, so has its desire to alter the status quo in disputes with its neighbours

By Brahma Chellaney
Wall Street Journal

Philippine activists hold a protest condemning what they say is China’s intrusions into the Scarborough Shoal. Photo: Noel Celis/AFP

In the way China made land grabs across the Himalayas in the 1950s by launching furtive encroachments, it is now waging separate stealth wars—without firing a single shot—to change the status quo in the South and East China Seas, on the line of control with India, and on international river flows. Although China has risen from a backward, poor state to a global economic powerhouse, the key elements in its statecraft and strategic doctrine have not changed.

Since the Mao Zedong era, China has adhered to ancient theorist Sun Tzu’s advice, “The ability to subdue the enemy without any battle is the ultimate reflection of the most supreme strategy.” This approach involves taking an adversary by surprise by exploiting its weaknesses, seizing any opportunistic timing, and camouflaging offence as defence. As Sun Tzu said, “All warfare is based on deception.”

For a generation after Deng Xiaoping consolidated power, China actively promoted good neighbourly ties with other Asian states so as to concentrate on rapid economic growth. This strategy allowed Beijing to accumulate considerable economic and strategic heft, while also permitting its neighbours to spur their own economic growth by plugging into China’s dramatic economic rise.

The good-neighbourly approach began changing from the past decade, as the Chinese leadership started believing that China’s moment in the sun had finally come.

One of the first signs was China’s 2006 revival of its long-dormant claim to Arunachal Pradesh. Other evidence of a shift to a muscle-flexing approach followed, with China picking territorial fights with multiple neighbours and broadening its “core interests”. And last year, China formally staked a claim to more than 80% of South China Sea.

In fact, the more openly China has embraced market capitalism, the more indigenized its political ideology has become. The country’s elites—by turning their back on Marxist dogma, imported from the West—have put Chinese nationalism at the centre of their political legitimacy. As a result, China’s new assertiveness has become more and more linked with national renewal.

Against this background, China’s increasing resort to stealth war is turning into a principle source of strategic instability in Asia. The instruments it uses are diverse, including a new class of stealth warriors reared by paramilitary maritime agencies. China has already scored some successes.

After a month-long standoff with the Philippines, China has taken effective control of the Scarborough Shoal last year by deploying ships around it and denying its adversary any access. Philippine fishermen can no longer enter a lagoon that served as their traditional fishing preserve. With Chinese ships staying put, the Philippines has been faced with a strategic Hobson’s choice: accept the new Chinese-dictated reality or risk open war.

In China’s stealth war to contest the decades-old Japanese control over the Senkaku Islands, Beijing has succeeded in its opening gambit—to make the international community recognize the existence of a dispute. In that sense, the new war of attrition China has launched over the Senkakus has helped shake the status quo.

In addition to seeking hegemony over South China Sea and much of the East China Sea, China has stepped up strategic pressure on India on multiple flanks, including ratcheting up territorial disputes. Unlike Japan, the Philippines, and some other Asian states that are separated from China by an ocean, India shares with that country the world’s longest contested land border. It is, therefore, more vulnerable to direct Chinese military pressure.

In fact, the largest and most prized real estate that China seeks is not in South or East China seas. It is in India—Arunachal Pradesh, which is three times as large as Taiwan. Yet the tensions over China’s territorial disputes with India arise for the same reason as in the South and East China seas—moves to disturb the status quo.

Although the Indian government chooses to underplay Chinese actions so as not to provoke greater aggressiveness, its figures reveal that—in keeping with a pattern witnessed since 2007—the number of stealthy Chinese forays into Indian territory again increased last year. Given that the Himalayan frontier is vast and inhospitable and thus difficult to effectively patrol in full, Chinese troops repeatedly attempt to sneak in, both to needle India and to possibly push the line of control southward.

Although such infiltration occurs in all sectors, much of last year’s increased incursion activity was concentrated in the high-altitude, 134km long Pangong Lake, where China is engaged in a game of chicken to expand its area of control. This endorheic lake— two-thirds of which China now holds—was the scene of bloody battles during the 1962 Chinese invasion of India.

As in the case of the territorial and maritime disputes, China is seeking to disturb the status quo on international river flows to its neighbours. Indeed, just as it has furtively encroached on disputed land in the past to present a fait accompli, China is seeking to re-engineer cross-border river flows by starting dam projects almost by stealth.

China values controlling transboundary water flows as a lever to gain greater economic and political leverage over neighbouring countries. Power, control, and leverage are central elements in Chinese statecraft. Once its dam are built on transnational rivers, it will acquire implicit leverage over its neighbours’ behaviour.

In this light, China’s increasingly fractious relations with its neighbours and the US—characterized by a security deficit and a norms deficit—are set to face new challenges. Persuading China to accept the status quo has become central to Asian peace and stability.

Brahma Chellaney is a professor at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi. Comments are welcome at theirview@livemint.com

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/ZLoMvV7UQpCSSCZIPauWaL/Chinas-new-stealth-wars.html

Why China wouldn’t go to war vs. U. S.

PerryScope
By Perry Diaz

If China attacked the United States, she had better knock her out in the first strike.  Otherwise, the U.S. would unleash 1,654 nuclear warheads on 792 deployed Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), Submarine-launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs), B-52 bombers, and B-2 stealth bombers.  China has approximately 240 warheads and an undetermined number of ICBMs.  But who would fire the first ICBM?

China had always stuck to her “No First Use” policy.  However, in January 2011, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) reportedly had indicated that it would consider launching a preemptive nuclear strike “if the country finds itself faced with a critical situation in a war with another nuclear state.”  By adopting a “First-strike” policy, China is changing the geopolitical game.   

Xi Jinping and Barack Obama (File Photo)

In March 2013, in an apparent reaction to China’s “First-strike” policy, the Obama administration sought to create the “capability to launch a first strike against Russia and/or China without fear of nuclear retaliation.” To accomplish this, the U.S. military plans to have 1,500 to 1,800 sea- and air-based first-strike cruise missiles by 2015 and 2,500 to 3,000 by 2020.

Many believe that to launch a preemptive first-strike could lead to Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), a Cold War doctrine in which a full-scale use of nuclear weapons of mass destruction by two opposing sides would effectively “result in the complete, utter and irrevocable annihilation of both the attacker and the defender.”   

But that doesn’t mean to say that a conventional war could not erupt in the Asia-Pacific region.  Actually, it could happen anytime soon.  North Korea’s threat to launch ballistic missiles against the U.S., Japan, and South Korea could spark a war that could presumably bring China to come to her aid.  And this is where the conflict could become a battle between the world’s two economic powers: U.S. and China. 

Oil almighty

But like any other war in modern times, oil — or the absence of oil — could determine the outcome of the war. During World War II, the Allies launched precision bombing of oil fields and refineries in Germany, Austria, Romania, Norway, and other German-occupied countries.  The success of the Allies’ “Oil Campaign” contributed to the weakening of Germany’s defenses.  Thus, when D-Day came, Germany’s vaunted panzer divisions were rendered inutile.  

China faces a similar problem.  She has less than 30 days of strategic oil reserves, which could be reduced to 10 days in time of war.  If the flow of imported oil from the Middle East and Africa were blocked at the Strait of Malacca, it would deprive China of 80% of her oil imports.   

China’s Achilles heel

At the east end of the Strait of Malacca, Singapore controls the “bottleneck” – the narrowest point in the strait with a width of only 1.7 miles. And conveniently located there is Changi Naval Base where Singapore maintains a fleet of submarines, frigates, and missile gunboats.   

Recently, President Barack Obama and Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong met in Washington D.C. and agreed on a plan to rotate deployments of U.S. Navy ships to Singapore as part of Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” – rebalancing of forces by transferring 60% of the U.S.’s naval assets to the Asia-Pacific region by 2020.     

U.S. Asia-Pacific strategy

The backbone of the U.S.’s Asia-Pacific strategy is her military presence in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Philippines, and Australia. Of utmost importance is the U.S.’s ability to block the chokepoint at the Strait of Malacca, which connects the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea.  

Carrier strike group (File Photo)

With the supercarrier USS George Washington strike group permanently based in Yokosuka, Japan, two other supercarrier strike groups were recently deployed to the 7th Fleet, the USS John C. Stennis strike group operating in the South China Sea and the USS Nimitz strike group operating in the Western Pacific.  The three strike groups have combined aircraft strength of more than 240 jet fighters.  At the west end of the Strait of Malacca, in the Indian Ocean, the supercarrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower strike group is deployed.

To protect Guam from potential missile attacks from North Korea, the U.S. is deploying a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System (THAAD) to Guam to strengthen the strategic island’s defenses.  Already deployed at Guam’s Anderson Air Force Base is a squadron of 12 B-52 nuclear-armed bombers, two squadrons of the advanced F-22 Raptor stealth jet fighters, and three nuclear attack submarines.   And from Japan to South Korea to Taiwan through nations in the South China Sea to India and Afghanistan, the U.S. has deployed a ring of the anti-missile Aegis Combat System and batteries of Patriot anti-ballistic missiles around China’s periphery.

In terms of military personnel, the U.S. Pacific Area Command (PACOM) — which is responsible for the Pacific and Indian Oceans — has more than 320,000 American troops under its command of which 85,000 are stationed in Japan and South Korea. It’s interesting to note that two senior posts were assigned to Australian officers, one of which is Deputy of PACOM Intelligence.

Australia appears to play an important role in the U.S.’s Asia-Pacific strategy. In 2011, Australia agreed to host 250 to 2,500 American Marines at Darwin, which is strategically positioned to control the Timor Sea, a possible new route for China’s oil imports in the event the Strait of Malacca and the Sunda Strait in Indonesia were blocked.  Obama called the troop deployment to Australia,“necessary to maintain the security architecture of the region.”  “This will allow us to be able to respond in a more timely fashion and to meet the demands of a lot of partners in the region,” he added. 

Major setback for China

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), almost a third of global crude oil and over half of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes through the South China Sea each year.  That makes the South China Sea the most important energy trade route in the world. 

It did not then come as a surprise that China claims virtually all of the South China Sea as an extension of her continental shelf; thus, her territory.  But five other countries also claim a good portion of South China Sea as their 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).  The U.S.’s position is that freedom of navigation should not be impeded in the South China Sea.

With no other source for oil, China is planning to tap the oil-rich South China Sea.  But the bad news is that a recent EIA report said that while the South China Sea is rich in oil and gas, they mostly reside in undisputed territory, close to each country’s shores.  As for the disputed regions of the South China Sea, the report said: “EIA estimates the region around the Spratly Islands [and the Paracel Islands] to have virtually no proved or probable oil reserves.” That is a major setback for China.

Evidently, China is not prepared militarily to go to war against the U.S.  Logistically, it would be a nightmare if China ran out of oil in the midst of a war.  And with all her neighbors – including Vietnam – warming up to the U.S., China is seen as a bully who would grab her neighbors’ land by brute force and intimidation. 

China should learn that getting along with her neighbors would earn her their respect, not their enmity.  She just can’t go about and say, “This is mine! That is mine!”

At the end of the day, China’s aggressive behavior would hurt her image and credibility for a long time to come.    

(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)

UN completes arbitration body to tackle Manila's maritime case vs China

Philippines News Agency

MANILA – The Philippines' case against China took another step forward after a United Nations arbitration body named the last three judges in the five-man tribunal that will hear Manila’s complaint over Beijing's "excessive" claim to the South China Sea.

"We are hoping that this case that we filed with the tribunal will proceed as soon as possible," Foreign Affairs spokesman Raul Hernandez told a press briefing Thursday.

Manila initiated an arbitration process under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea or UNCLOS on January 21, seeking to declare "illegal" a China claim that covers nearly the entire resource-rich waters of the South China Sea.

China has resisted the Philippines' move to let a UN body intervene in the disputes.

China, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia have overlapping claims on the islands, shoals and reefs in the South China Sea, where undersea gas deposits have been discovered in several areas. International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) President Shunji Yanai on April 24 transmitted a letter to Philippine Solicitor General Francis Jardeleza, head of the Philippine legal team on the arbitration case, informing Manila of the appointment of the final three judges who will consider the matter.

They are: Jean-Pierre Cot (France), Chris Pinto (Sri Lanka) and Alfred Soons (The Netherlands.)

Yanai earlier appointed Stanislaw Pawlak (Poland) as the second member of the tribunal, to represent China in the proceedings. The Philippines, on the other hand, nominated Rudiger Wolfrum (Germany) to the tribunal.

Hernandez said the five-member arbitral tribunal will first determine if it has jurisdiction over the Philippine case before an actual hearing takes place.

The Philippine government, he said, is "very confident" that the case will be taken up by the tribunal and that the country will be awarded its maritime entitlements in the South China Sea.
“The nine-dash claim of China has no validity as far as the international law, particularly the UNCLOS, is concerned” Hernandez said.

UNCLOS is a 1982 accord by 163 countries that aims to govern the use of offshore areas and sets territorial limits of coastal states. The Philippines and China are both signatories to the treaty.

It also allows member-states to seek legal remedy on territorial disputes through mediation.
Manila insisted that arbitration is “a peaceful and durable form of dispute settlement pursuant to international law.”

China, which frowns upon efforts to involve a third party in the disputes, prefers to negotiate one on one with other claimants which would give it advantage because of its sheer size compared to rival claimants which are smaller and have less military force.