Mar Roxas was a victim

AS I WRECK THIS CHAIR
by William M. Esposo
from The Philippine Star

From the results of 90.03% of votes cast for the vice presidential race which were released last Friday evening by the PPCRV-KBP, the SWS (Social Weather Stations) and Pulse Asia Exit Polls seemed to have accurately forecasted a Jojo Binay victory over Mar Roxas.

In the SWS Exit Poll which was based on the responses of 35,825 voters, Jojo Binay won with a 40.7% vote over Mar Roxas who had 38.3%. In the Pulse Asia-ABS-CBN Exit Poll, Binay won over Roxas, 42.7% versus 37.4%. In the PPCRV-KBP results last Friday, Binay continued to lead Roxas by 802,684 votes. Based on the estimated 37,500,000 actual votes cast, Binay’s 800,000 lead represents around 2%.

Contrary to what the Liberal Party camp has been claiming — that Roxas will win by anywhere from 10,000 to 100,000 votes — it looks like the country will have its First Black Vice President in Jojo Binay, as the text joke proclaimed. The breakdown of the unreported votes supports the assessment of ABS-CBN Research head Vivian Tin that with just 3 to 3.5 million votes to account for, it is now very difficult for Roxas to overtake Binay.

The bulk of the votes in the three regions where Roxas won (Caraga Region, Regions 6 and 7) have already been included in the present tally where Binay leads by over 800,000 votes. Per the PPCRV-KBP May 13 Summary, only 10.02% of the Caraga Region, 10.24% of Region 6 and 17.0% of Region 7 were unreported. Whatever gains Roxas can still make from these three regions which supported him cannot offset the still unreported votes from the 14 other regions where Binay won.

This is especially true in the ARMM where 29.45% were still unreported as of May 13 and where Roxas was junked owing to his opposition to the failed MOA-BJE. In the 70.46% ARMM votes that were already counted, Roxas only got 16.6% of the votes and lost to Binay by a margin of 243,291. Even Ronnie Puno will find it extremely difficult to make Roxas win in the 29.46% unreported votes of the ARMM.

More than the phenomenal surge of Jojo Binay, Mar Roxas may have been the bigger victim of the very people surrounding him. For one, they did not protect his lead and allowed Mar to be overwhelmed like an amateur UAAP basketball player playing Kobe Bryant of the LA Lakers. They were busy parading around town like peacocks when Mar was enjoying an over 20% lead over his nearest rival.

Our STAR colleague and Ateneo fellow alumnus Babe Romualdez wrote a column during that time when Manny Villar came to within 2% of Noynoy Aquino where Babe narrated how the Mar group was expressing regret for having given way to Aquino. The Mar people were then deluding themselves that Mar would have been the real winner.

That is of course pure delusion. Mar gave way to Noy because his presidential campaign was not going anywhere and demonstrated all the signs of a weak brand. That weak brand was demonstrated anew with the way Jojo Binay overtook Mar Roxas in this election. Having courted hubris, Mar’s people saw Mar needing all those TV ads where Noy strongly endorsed Mar as his only vice president and true partner in the rebuilding of the country.

Bad enough that they’ve failed to protect Mar’s lead — these political parasites are now even creating unnecessary friction and enemies. At a time when Mar desperately needs added allies and friends and should be positively influencing people — they’ve been transforming allies and friends into enemies and turning off people.

They’ve been badmouthing people whom they’ve accused of stabbing Mar in the back and promoted a Noy-Bi (Noynoy Aquino-Jojo Binay) tandem. Some of these issues have already made it to media. They make it appear that if an Aquino supporter opts to support Binay, then that is treachery. That can be considered treachery only if you’re a member of the Liberal Party but if you’re not then it’s nobody’s business to tell you how to choose your vice president.

Even Aquino’s sisters were not spared and have been painted by this group as members of a cabal that’s out to dominate the inner circle of power in the Aquino administration. Actually, it is the opposite. They are the ones who are salivating to dominate the inner circle of power. Among those whom they’ve badmouthed were your Chair Wrecker, Conrad de Quiros, Tony Meloto, Boy and Maria Montelibano, Peping Cojuangco, Popoy Juico and Pastor “Boy” Saycon. Wow! Do these lightweights think that they can really take on heavyweights?

They have the gall and the temerity to badmouth Tarlac Kingpin Peping Cojuangco even when the numbers are there staring them in the face that Roxas won in Tarlac by a margin bigger than the votes Binay got in the province. In Tarlac, Roxas got 317,843 votes versus Binay’s 129,523, a margin of 188,320. Had Peping campaigned for a Noy-Bi tandem, Binay would have easily gotten double his votes in the province.

These were the very people who tried to surround and dominate Noynoy Aquino and were the ones running the campaign like amateurs when Aquino’s ratings plunged from a high of 60% to a low of 35%. The timely entry of veterans, notably the media team headed by Maria Montelibano, arrested the plunge and helped steer Noynoy to victory.

Are we surprised that Mar’s ratings also suffered a similar crash? Unfortunately for Mar, it was too late to reverse the downward spiral and arrest the upward trend of Binay. Also, instead of having a team like that of Maria Montelibano to arrest his slide — Mar fell victim to the advice of those in his camp who pushed him to antagonize Maria, the very person who could have helped him.

Others tend to label this group as The Hyatt 10, the ten members of the Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (GMA) regime who announced their resignations at the Hyatt Hotel after the 2004 election fraud scandal erupted. That is an unfair label. It is true that members of The Hyatt 10 are part of these hate mongers but there are good persons in The Hyatt 10, like my friend Butch Abad, who are not part of this negativism.

Noynoy Aquino should be wary of these people who already almost derailed his candidacy and have now brought down Mar Roxas. Judging by the numbers, Noy will be dealing with superior opposition numbers in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The last thing Noy needs are people with a talent for creating enemies and turning off people.

* * *

Chair Wrecker e-mail and website: macesposo@yahoo.com and www.chairwrecker.com

The Fading of Gloria

by Criselda Yabes
from Asia Sentinel

http://asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2466&Itemid=187

Against the predictions of Manila’s alarmists, the outgoing Filipino president appears to be losing her clout

Outgoing Philippines President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s gamble to take over as Speaker of the House of Representatives to preserve her power base and protect her from procecution appears to be fading against the magnitude of last Monday’s national election landslide by Benigno Aquino III. Aquino won 40 percent of the vote, while his nearest challenger had about 25 percent.

She appears about to be thwarted by traditional Filipino politics, which holds that political parties are meaningless, that no alliance ever lasts, and that elected officials usually follow the winner because that is where the pork barrel is.

Arroyo, who finished her presidency with some of the lowest poll ratings in the country’s history, won her 2nd Congressional District seat in Pampanga handily, the first step in her widely anticipated plan to seek the speakership. However, while the votes are still being counted and no results are expected to be announced before May 15 by Comelec, the Philippines election commission, it appears that members of her administration whom she had expected to take into the house as her allies lost their races.

Sixteen members of Arroyo’s government, including eight cabinet secretaries, two senators, two governors, four mayors and four family members were lined up for Congressional seats. It isn’t known yet how many have lost, but the result appears to be an indication that voters want to turn a page, leaving behind the corruption and stagnation that have dogged the nation during her nine years of rule at Malacañang Palace. According to local media reports, Arroyo is thought to have the loyalty of perhaps 80 to 90 House members, along with the allegiance of an unknown number of so-called party-list candidates who represent special interest groups.

“I don’t suppose that realistically the outgoing president will have a strong chance of becoming speaker of the house,” Rep. Neptal Gonzales, a member of Noynoy Aquino’s Liberal Party, told ABN CBS Television.

Nonetheless, “the lower house tallies are still coming in and Arroyo still has some cards to play,” said Pete Troilo, director of Business Intelligence for the Manila-based Pacific Strategies and Assessments. “Arroyo has a lot of money and Filipinos have short memories so I wouldn’t count her out just yet.”

The Liberal Party appears likely to push to elect Feliciano Belmonte Jr., who served as speaker in the 11th Congress, to return to the job. Party allegiances in the Philippines are slippery at best and traditionally have shifted with the arrival of a new president. Given the magnitude of Noynoy’s victory, and the fact that the outgoing president will no longer have access to the development funds that she poured out as pork to keep her allies in line, observers feel she will be increasingly isolated, especially given the abysmal approval ratings, which showed only 21 percent of the electorate trusted her.

Aquino’s next task is to set about undoing some of the last-minute appointments Arroyo made to the Supreme Court, the Armed Forces and the Ombudsman anti-graft court – all major institutions that largely succumbed to the politics of patronage, sacrificing the country’s tenuous hold on a democratic system already made perilous by a history of dictatorship, military coup attempts and feudal structures. Her last act, after the election, was to name Renato Corona, her former chief of staff and spokesman, to the Supreme Court over Antonio Carpio, who had thwarted her move to amend the constitution and remove the term limits that are forcing her from office.

Arroyo and Aquino have been political foes for years. The president-elect’s mother, Corazon, who is regarded as nearly a saint by the Filipino people, sought to push her from power in 2006 in the wake of widespread allegations of corruption and vote-buying in the 2004 election. He appears to have the support of Jejomar Binay, who staged an unlikely victory over Arroyo’s vice presidential running mate Mar Roxas.

Binay was a human rghts lawyer close to the Aquinos and Noynoy’s father, Benigno Aquino Jr, prior to Ninoy’s murder and made common cause with Cory in the movement to oust Gloria in 2006.

“An Aquino/Binay tandem might be even more intent on going after her than any other conceivable President/Vice-President alignment,” Troilo said.

Aquino’s next task, observers feel, is to determine whether to prosecute the outgoing president and her husband, Miguel “Mike” Arroyo on a broad series of crimes, election fraud and corruption despite her attempts to insulate herself from prosecution by packing the Supreme Court with her allies. Human rights groups have alleged that as many as 800 leftist sympathizers were gunned down during her presidency when she set out to crack down on the New People;s Army and other leftist groups. Millions of pesos from the country’s national fertilizer fund to help farmers were allegedly diverted into her 2004 election campaign. Many reports indicate that she made massive cash donations directly to House members when she was president.

Aquino has about six weeks to form what he called a search committee to look for talent in his cabinet, intending to personally interview all his appointees and ask them to make sacrifices during his six-year term. He said he plans to reduce cabinet positions and government policy consultants and to retain only important national agencies that had bloated the executive branch.

As for his predecessor’s past wrongdoings, he said he has a “surplus of talent” from which to choose a commission looking into the matter of whether she can be prosecuted. His lawyers will also have to work out legal mechanisms to reverse a recent Supreme Court ruling – which many say was unconstitutional in the first place if not for the fact that the court was filled with presidential favorites – on midnight appointments, one way of filtering out Arroyo’s hand-picked lackeys that she had packed her administration with.

But foremost on his agenda should be the military, which surprised the public even more for staying solid and carrying out support for credible elections. All post-Marcos presidents save one suffered threats of coup attempts, and Aquino will now have to take a balanced approach in dealing with the top brass who were put there by Arroyo for their personal loyalty but who eventually displayed professionalism in the thick of the political fight.

One of Aquino’s main advisers is a former defense secretary who had crafted an ambitious reform program desperately needed by the Armed Forces and has yet to be carried through for a military that has been fighting one of the longest-running insurgencies, and seeking a peace process with Muslim secessionists that stalled two years ago.

Aquino said he wants to draft a comprehensive National Security Policy once and for all, saying in a security sector forum that his government “will have to pick up the pieces and resume the quest for peace with vigor and clarity of purpose.”

There is one more possible bright spot for Aquino in the next round: other than former president Joseph “Erap” Estrada, his presidential opponents have conceded defeat in a remarkable gesture of sportsmanship, an element that was absent in the messy, redundant electoral process of the past.

Lowest-ranked officer to administer oath to Philippine president

by Leo Reyes
from Digital Journal

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/291996

Apparent president-elect Sen. Noynoy Aquino is breaking tradition by having a non-supreme court justice administer his oath of office when he takes on his new job as president of the Philippines.

Senator Noynoy Aquino, a 50-year old bachelor who will soon assume the highest position in the Philippines by virtue of his landslide victory in the May 10 election, said he will take his oath of office as the country’s most powerful person before a Barangay Chairman, instead of taking it traditionally before the chief justice of the supreme court.

A Barangay Chairman is the lowest-ranked government official in the bureaucracy next to Barangay councilmen.

The apparent president-elect said there is no law that prohibits the taking of oath of office before a Barangay Chairman. The apparent president-elect has opposed the appointment of a new chief justice of the supreme court days before the term of office of the incumbent president.

President Gloria Arroyo whose term ends on June 30, 2010 has appointed Renato Corona, an associate justice to the position of chief justice of the supreme court. Corona used to work with Arroyo as her chief of staff before his appointment to the supreme court.

Justice Renato Puno, the incumbent chief justice of the supreme court is retiring on May 17. Political opposition says Arroyo should let the incoming president appoint the new chief justice of the supreme court
Arroyo is facing high profile court cases once she losses her immunity from suits when she steps down from the presidency. The opposition believes a friendly supreme court justice could let her off the hook when the cases reach the supreme court for final decision.

Aquino agreed that Arroyo’s appointment of Corona was a “declaration of war’’ against his incoming administration.

“But more than anything , given the fact she probably assumes she’ll be facing a whole ton of cases, a whole lot of them, she is looking for sympathetic or friendly faces from those who will (try) her case. I think she did this for personal interests again rather than national interest,” he said.

Malacanang Palace maintained that the apparent president-elect may be violating the constitution by allowing other public officials to administer the oath to the new president instead of the chief justice of the supreme court.

Corona’s Thorny Crown

PerryScope
by Perry Diaz

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo ignited a firestorm right after the presidential elections when she appointed Justice Renato Corona to replace Chief Justice Reynato Puno who retired last May 17. On the day Puno retired, Corona took his oath of office before Arroyo. With that, the High Court is now composed of all justices appointed by Arroyo. The “Arroyo Court” is now fait accompli. Or should I say, “Coronarroyo Court”?

Corona’s appointment would have been uncontroversial and untainted had it not been made during the constitutional ban on “midnight appointments.” The controversy arose when the Supreme Court, in a 9-1 decision, ruled in favor of Arturo M. De Castro’s petition (De Castro vs. Judicial and Bar Council) to the Supreme Court to allow the President to appoint the successor of Chief Justice Puno upon his retirement, on the ground “that the prohibition against presidential appointments under Section 15, Article VII does not extend to appointments in the Judiciary.”

Ban on “midnight appointments”

But that’s not what Section 15, Article VII says. What is says is: “Two months immediately before the next presidential elections and up to the end of his term, a President or Acting President shall not make appointments, except temporary appointments to executive positions when continued vacancies therein will prejudice public service or endanger public safety.”

It’s crystal clear that the ban on “midnight appointments” covers permanent appointments to the Supreme Court including the Chief Justice. Justice Lucas Bersamin, who penned the decision, argued that the constitutional provision did not apply to the position of chief justice. It’s analogous to saying, “The color of the white dog is black.”

Prior to accepting the appointment, Corona was warned by the Philippine Bar Association (PBA) that he can be “sanctioned for violating the Constitution if he accepts his appointment as Chief Justice.” PBA president and former Ombudsman Simeon Marcelo said, “He should reject also because he’s tainted already. He follows what the incumbent President wants. There’s great doubt on his independence and [that he is] out to protect [the] President from suits.”

Corona was also challenged by Jaro Archbishop Angel Lagdameo to “defend the integrity of the judiciary instead of showing loyalty to President Arroyo.” He also said, “I hope the incoming chief justice will maintain the independence of the Supreme Court and not be influenced by ‘utang na loob’ to the President.”

Indeed, it is “utang na loob” (debt of gratitude) that seems to be the culprit in influencing the nine justices — seven of whom, including Bersamin, were appointed by Arroyo in 2009 and 2010 — to concur with Bersamin’s controversial ponencia.

It’s interesting to note that during the interview of the four nominees for Chief Justice by the Judicial and Bar Council (JBC), Justice Arturo Brion was asked: “How about utang na loob?” While not admitting to it, his answer was: “That is a cultural baggage.”

Thorny crown

The militant labor group, Kilusang Mayo Uno (KMU), likened Corona to a “thorny crown” placed on the head of President-apparent Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III. KMU Chairman Elmer Labog said, “By appointing the justice who is most loyal to her to head the Supreme Court, Arroyo is passing a thorny crown to Sen. Aquino. She is leaving yet another ugly legacy to the next administration and to the Filipino people.”

However, in my opinion, the “thorny crown” is not on Noynoy’s head but on Corona’s head. It’s an ignominious “crown” that he would wear for as long as he is the Chief Justice. He has to bear the pain of being mocked as Arroyo’s “midnight chief justice.” And each time that he takes a vote on a case before the High Court involving Arroyo, there would be a great deal of skepticism and suspicion on how he arrived at his decision, particularly if it would be favorable to Arroyo. If his past votes were taken into consideration as to how he is going to perform as Chief Justice, then there is the likelihood that he would continue to be perceived as biased for Arroyo.

When asked by the media after his oath-taking if he would inhibit himself from hearing cases involving Arroyo, his answer was: “You’re asking me to express my opinion on a case which has never even been filed yet. So I therefore decline to answer that question. We will deal with the issue head-on if and when there is a case pending before us.” Crafty, indeed.

With the anticipated high volume of plunder and other criminal cases that would be filed against Arroyo, the Supreme Court would be inundated with caseloads for the duration of Corona’s stewardship of the High Court for the next eight years. Many people are of the opinion that Arroyo appointed Corona to protect her from those cases.

When Arroyo announced Corona’s appointment ahead of the Puno’s retirement on May 17, it provoked an early clash with Noynoy who said that he would not recognize Arroyo’s midnight appointments. And to make his point clear, Noynoy said that he would take his oath of office before a barangay chairman, the lowest elected government official.

Midnight Chief Justice

Now that Corona has taken his oath of office, the question is: Would Noynoy pursue the removal of Corona? If so, it would certainly create a constitutional crisis — pitting the executive branch against the judiciary branch of government.

However, if Noynoy decides not to remove Corona, then Corona’s appointment would be tantamount to a constitutional “amendment” that would render Section 15, Article VII unenforceable and, therefore, inutile. And once that precedent is set, I wonder what the “Arroyo Court” would do to tweak or twist other provisions of the constitution? Has the rule of man supplanted the rule of law in our benighted country?

Former Chief Justice Artemio V. Panganiban, in his article, “Midnight chief justice,” published on March 27, 2010, said: “It has definitely eroded the high moral ascendancy of the highest court of the land. It is bad enough that the tribunal is now freely labeled as the ‘Arroyo Court.’ Worse, the appointee will be ingloriously branded the ‘midnight chief justice.’ ” Yes, indeed.

(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)

Lessons From History

GLIMPSES
by Jose Ma. Montelibano

It is, indeed, like a script from heaven. The elections happened, and there were no grim scenarios that Noynoy volunteers had primed themselves for. Yet, Noynoy won, almost like a walk in the park. Of course, no presidential candidate and vice-presidential candidate has been proclaimed as of this time as I comply with the deadline of my submission of this article. There are legal niceties that have to be observed, preventing Noynoy Aquino and Jojo Binay from being formally acknowledged as having won. These small obstacles, though, do not stand in the way of my accepting that destiny has maneuvered a partnership against all odds.

Since the difference of votes between Jojo Binay and Mar Roxas is only a few percentage points, there is a mixed and muted celebration among many in the Aquino camp. The Noy-Mar tandem had become a fixture in thought and imagination of their supporters since September of last year that a Noy-Binay scenario has upset their applecart. At the same time, the reality that Jojo Binay may soon be the next vice-president does not make him and Noynoy total strangers as they are not by any stretch of the imagination. Jojo Binay has been a personal and political presence in the Cory Aquino family for more years than Mar Roxas has been. Their belonging to different political parties is a fact that should have little bearing between long-time friends, but will be an initial hump in an unexpected partnership.

I remember when I first wrote in August of 2009 about how destiny seemed to have played a major and dramatic role in Noynoy’s life and that of the Filipino people. Like Billy Esposo and Conrad de Quiros who had already and boldly written about how Noynoy should run for the presidency despite the his having had no interest and preparation to do so, I wanted to express the same view. However, I pulled back a little because the future, at that time, looked very dark and ominous. I believed that Ninoy and Cory Aquino had dome so much for our motherland that their children deserved a more peaceful and quiet life. But the color of destiny kept getting more clear by the day that I quickly joined others in clamoring for Noynoy to run.

It has been a long and bruising campaign, a very dirty one, in fact. To the end, though, there had been the least of violence, and that in itself has been a special blessing. While the color orange tried its best from two parties to become overtake the yellow fever, it was yellow all the way.

Which now brings me to another moment where I ponder about destiny and whether the orchestrator of Noynoy’s destiny is also moving to attach Jojo Binay with it. The seeming impossibility of a Binay victory has triggered all sorts of speculations as to its explanation. And it has caused allegedly well-bred people to cross lines of decency and engage in gutter behavior in blaming others for what cannot be but a serious error of the core of Mar Roxas’s campaign. For a candidate to lose a lead of over 30% in three months without realizing it until the last moment is a classic case of political ineptness. The inept, therefore, have to point the blame on others, a usual human tendency.

The Philippines has chosen democracy to be its political path. However, some in the elite cling to a past that has been generous to them but very unfair to the majority. The elitism has not been relegated to land ownership but to political dominance as well. The Aquino and Roxas families are ilustrados in Philippine political history, Binays are not. That is the strange fit, an ilustrado Aquino and a masa Binay, and some vested interests will try to make political intrigue from it. Yet, destiny is offering a bright window of opportunity for a convergence that has long been delayed, the closing of the awful gap between rich and poor.

Both Noynoy Aquino and Jojo Binay must learn to rise above their partisan boxes and honor a people’s will. If they cannot, then they betray the spirit of change which catapulted them to what seemed impossible just months ago. Noynoy Aquino and Jojo Binay must prepare to sit as President and Vice-President of the Republic of the Philippines, not as heads of two political parties. That is what they have been telling the Filipino people as they asked for the people’s votes and support, that they want to be the two highest leaders of the nation, not of their respective political parties. Life is kind to the two of them, that they have more than two decades of personal amity. Only the most narrow of interest will keep one or both of them from giving their relationship less than totally supportive.

The lessons to be learned from Edsa One, the unfinished revolution, are many. One among the first is the working and personal relationship between the President and the Vice-President. Cory Aquino and Doy Laurel never hit it off, and their differences denied the country of a more effective governance. Another opportunity is being given by destiny to two friends to learn the unlearned and lift a whole people through a harmonious alliance.

The Cory Aquino presidency was perennially harassed by rebellious elements in the military. Because of determined destabilization attempts, her administration could not convert enthusiasm for change after a dictatorship. Noynoy can use all the help from a political veteran to extract more cooperation from the various political forces that will be trying to destroy his administration.
In my last article, I shared my view that we are at the edge of a historical replay. But if we are to witness our people and nation break a destructive cycle and use the lessons of history, the future can be full of hope.
There is a smell of fresh flowers after a very dark night. The sun has not yet risen, but there is a luminous sheen that is preparing to welcome it. We have a mountain to climb and we are eager to begin the journey.

***

“There is always a philosophy for lack of courage.” Albert Camus

The Challenges Facing a New President

by Fr. Shay Cullen
from PREDA Foundation

The expected victory of leading candidate Benigno Simeon Cojuangco “Noynoy” Aquino III has raised the hopes and expectations of the people of the Philippines. The people judged him to be the most worthy of trust and the best one able to realize their hopes and most likely to fulfill campaign promises to end corruption and work to end widespread poverty. His greatest challenge if proclaimed president will be to resist the power, influence and pressure of the vested interests of the powerful dynastic families and foreign corporations and governments that have dominated Philippine politics and the economy for generations. The people have spoken through the new fairly effective electronic voting system that has minimized cheating and brought a swift result.

Noynoy has the commitment and the heart to change the country but it is not one man or administration that will bring change, it is the support of individual citizens working together to heal the wounds and pain of the nation and make it a just society. However, some of his own relatives are traditional politicians and have been accused in the past of self-enrichment and cronyism in the administration of his mother Corazon Aquino, who herself had an unblemished and exemplary presidency but was unable to control her own relatives. Coming from such distinguished parents, the president-elect has a great legacy to live up to. His father, Ninoy Aquino, opposed the dictator Ferdinand Marcos, was jailed and exiled and when he returned to the Philippines, he was murdered allegedly on Marcos’ orders.

His mother, affectionally called Cory, was truly loved by the people and seen as the incorruptible selfless leader who lived a simple life that contradicted the pomp, grander and adulation favoured by most politicians who considered themselves a superior and privileged moneyed class.

Considering that the roots of poverty and suffering of millions of Filipinos stem from the plundering greed of these powerful political families and their corporations, it will be a tough battle if Aquino is to fight corruption and actually serve the poor and the best interests of the nation. The vested interests with military connections will not tolerate such reforms and might instigate a coup as they did against his mother. It is time for people power to support the positive efforts for reform.

The surprise success of former President Joseph Estrada, who came in second in the election is an indication that his popularity among the poor as their movie star champion however flawed. His popularity was undiminished by his over throw by street demonstrations and conviction for plunder by his elitist vice-president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, some ten years ago. Her own father was president. Estrada was resented by the elite as the upstart outsider that challenged them. They believed that they alone should rule.

The future has many challenges, Aquino must act to end irresponsible mining that is destroying the environment and the indigenous people. He can implement existing laws that protect human rights. Besides working on strengthening the economy in such a way that will improve the lives of the poor, Aquino has to address the rampant lawlessness and culture of violence and assassination of social reformers and justice and peace activists.

Prison reform has to be a priority to end the misery, inhuman conditions, and rampant violation of human rights of children and adults in prison. His administration will have to act decisively to oppose and reduce greatly the widespread sex industry that promotes the trafficking and sexual exploitation of women and children.

There are an estimated 60,000 minors in the sex industry. Implementing existing laws will call for an overhaul of Department of Justice where good prosecutors are marginalized and the corrupt take bribes to block and delay prosecution of rapists and child abusers. Even some courts are corrupt and fail to allow the serving of sentences of well connected convicted felons. It will not be easy for the new president and public support will be essential. END

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Contact Fr. Shay Cullen at the Preda Center, Upper Kalaklan, Olongapo City, Philippines.
e-mail: preda@info.com.ph
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PREDA Information Office
PREDA Foundation, Inc.
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www.preda.org

Analysis: Why GMA Aborted Noel?

FRANKLY SPEAKING
by Frank Wenceslao

This is a post-election analysis of how important the contribution is of U.S. Pinoys, their parents, siblings, other relatives and beneficiaries at home to the victory of Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III and why Gloria Macapagal Arroyo aborted her Oplan Noel (no election) and other plots to continue in power.

The sword thrust like in a bullfight that killed Oplan Noel was the overwhelming majority of the AFP officer corps’ refusal to take part in it coupled with unintended consequences of actions elsewhere. Let me start with an email I received from Manila about mid-April advising me of a Villar-Roxas win. Earlier information pointed to a possible Oplan Noel.

My sources are members like me of the world famous 365 Breakfast Club at Makati’s Intercontinental Hotel coffee shop. Since Marcos time there’s been interaction at the club among administration officials, opposition leaders and media people trying to outdo each other whose information or predictions are most accurate. The prediction of the Villar-Roxas win became the talk of the club when Manny Villar tied Aquino in SWS and Pulse Asia surveys and the rumored Villaroyo deal became rife.

However, Oplan Noel was restored as Plan B when Villar’s poll rating went on a free-fall and his campaign began unraveling. The ads on his “poor Tondo boy” background were exposed with two lies too many and the release of the fake psychiatric report on Aquino became the last straw that convinced voters of Villar’s dishonesty.

Based on evidence received from Manila which would have been libelous if published there, I opened up salvos in this column read around the world with irrefutable evidence of wrongdoings to show the billions of pesos the Villars made from real estate development and mortgage lending were beyond the realm of statistical probability and could only be ill-gotten from the proceeds of corruption.

I summarized my charges and sent them to the White House, the respective chairmen of the U.S. Senate and House foreign relations committees and the two U.S. senators from California. I emphasized in my letters the danger of the Arroyo-Villar deal pointing out that with her dossiers on him since his becoming a public official; if she’s elected to the House (as is now a fact), Villar has no choice but support her to be speaker and effectively be a co-president.

I made it unmistakably clear to every U.S. official I could reach the danger of the Arroyo-Villar deal; that’s to lose the Philippine democratic government like what would’ve happened to Honduras when the Obama administration mistakenly backed Manuel Zelaya who wanted to join the Cuba-Venezuela bloc. Luckily, the mistake was corrected with the U.S. just “barking” but didn’t follow through with action.

As always there’s a fly in the ointment. GMA’s appointment of Justice Renato Corona to succeed retiring Chief Justice Reynato Puno simply made no sense and her promise of cooperation for a smooth transition to the next administration is a blatant lie. Pamusa’s organizers, supporters and volunteers are up in arms and urged me to manifest their objection and for Corona to refuse the appointment.

The appointment once again proves GMA as incurably narcissistic. In fact, we have it on good authority in her last U.S. trip for the nuclear summit she’d no business attending, she sent up trial balloons what the U.S. would do if a national emergency caused by widespread power failures caused by NPAs, Muslim secessionists and Abu Sayyaf Group prevented holding the May 10 elections.

GMA completely embarrassed herself when a State Department official reportedly told her that with her job approval rating and international perception of her pervasively corrupt administration, she can’t govern and the earlier the next administration takes over, the better for the Filipino people.

My main point though is Aquino’s election and eventual success depends on realizing his battle cry, “Kung walang corrupt, walang mahirap” which he can accomplish. The World Bank admitted that government corruption has been “the greatest single obstacle to economic and social development” of poor nations like the Philippines. This bound over 120 countries to adopt the U.N. Convention Against Corruption (UNCAC) and singled out the “return of assets as a fundamental principle of the Convention.”

Pamusa’s think-tankers are more in favor of UNCAC’s Article 54(1)(c) that establishes non-criminal systems of confiscation based on lower standard of evidence (“preponderance of the evidence” rather than “beyond a reasonable doubt”). The next administration has two options to compel settlements, namely: criminal action with U.S. Government assistance under the UNCAC’s international cooperation provisions (UNCAC-ICP) enforced by U.S. laws and a collateral civil suit both adjudicated in the States.

No Filipino with ill-gotten assets from corruption would dare fight in U.S. court both criminal and civil actions because of the enormous legal expenses to be incurred leaving, thus the only option is to negotiate settlement, return the illicit assets to the Philippine Government and probably be allowed to keep a part as may be approved by a U.S. court.

I have a preliminary plan with Loida Nicolas Lewis how U.S. Pinoys can be the difference to ensure the success of Aquino’s presidency. The plan can be rolled out as his EO No. 1, s. 2010 similar to President Cory Aquino’s EOs 1 and 2 s. 1986. The second authorizes the PCGG or successor to request and appeal to foreign governments to freeze and prevent the transfer, conveyance, encumbrance, concealment or liquidation of ill-gotten wealth or properties found within their respective jurisdictions.

This could’ve been done under GMA had she approved granting Pamusa PCGG’s power of attorney, or governmental authority required by U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) to access financial information and recover, for instance, the ill-gotten wealth of Marcos and his cronies. GMA’s refusal to grant Pamusa’s request is understandably out of fear the governmental authority will eventually impact her, close associates and other family members.

I’ve studied anticorruption models in different countries since Pamusa was organized in Aug. 2006. The EO is just an interim arrangement because legislation is needed conformably with the UNCAC. While graft and corruption can’t be eliminated, Aquino’s 6-year presidency will minimize or make it too costly and deter those not criminally inclined to get involved.

In conclusion, it looks from feelers who contacted me to set aside Pamusa’s threat to charge her sons, Mikey and Dato with their spouses for “seriously violating U.S. laws on American soil” of wire fraud, money laundering, racketeering, foreign corrupt practices, and conspiracies to commit these crimes for acquiring real properties and investing in business enterprises from illegally sourced funds or proceeds of corruption could be another reason for GMA to back off Oplan Noel.

Much to my regret, my colleagues insist that should Justice Corona accept his Chief Justice appointment by GMA, Pamusa will be compelled to dig up the funds he has in U.S. or foreign bank accounts, real properties and other investment that might have come from inexplicable sources or beyond legitimate income for him to be charged in the U.S. like the Arroyo Bros. On the other hand, it will be patriotic and a show of selflessness if Corona would let President Aquino decide who to appoint the next Chief Justice.

I firmly believe that upon his inauguration, President Aquino would grant Pamusa the governmental authority required by the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) to support measures in tracing, freezing, seizure and recovering the worldwide assets of current and former Filipino or ex-Filipino government officials, their close associates and immediate family members, or private individuals and businessmen that colluded with them.

Of course, if Pamusa is given the task, we will be as reasonable as possible to people who will voluntarily step up to negotiate settlement of ill-gotten assets from corruption.

Contact information: fcwenceslao1034@gmail.com and frankw@pamusa.net.