What the CIA’s Panetta told President Arroyo

by Ramon J. Farolan
from Philippine Daily Inquirer

JUST TO refresh our memories. Sometime in October 1985, Sen. Paul Laxalt, one of President Ronald Reagan’s closest advisers, was sent to Manila on a special mission for talks with President Marcos. In the words of Laxalt: “My mission was to communicate President Reagan’s concerns about the future of the Philippines. The President was concerned about the general political instability and whether President Marcos still enjoyed the support of the people … I delivered to Marcos a handwritten letter from President Reagan.”

At these meetings, the idea of calling a snap presidential election was broached to Marcos. A few weeks later, after Laxalt had returned to Washington, Marcos announced the holding of snap elections and set Feb. 7, 1986 as the polling day. On Feb. 24, in the wake of growing unrest and a possible outbreak of violence, Reagan issued a statement calling on Marcos, in effect, to resign. The next day Laxalt received a call from Marcos who was not sure if the statement represented Reagan’s personal views or that of the Washington bureaucracy. (Secretary of State George Schultz and Adm. William Crowe, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, wanted Marcos to step down.) Laxalt’s reply was: “You should cut, and cut cleanly. I think the time has come.” After a long silence, Marcos said, “I am so very, very disappointed.” The rest is history.

Fast track to 2009. Last week, the director of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Leon Panetta, suddenly arrived in Manila for what some news reports called a “social visit.” CIA directors don’t make social visits to any place, and frankly, I can’t recall any CIA director ever visiting the Philippines. If one did, it was probably under wraps with no public announcements made. The travels of a CIA chief are generally kept secret, but Panetta’s visit to Manila was well-covered by the media. However, where he proceeded after Manila is not known.

Panetta is the 19th director of the CIA, which was established in 1947, during the time of President Harry Truman, for intelligence-gathering and coordination. Just for clarification, in 2005 the Office of the Director, National Intelligence (DNI) was created with the chief, currently Adm. Dennis Blair, former commander of the Pacific Command, as head of the 16-member US Intelligence Community. Before 2005, the director of the CIA was the head of this community.

Prior to his appointment as CIA director, Panetta served as chief of staff for President Bill Clinton, and also was head of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Earlier, he had been a California congressman dealing primarily with budgetary issues. He is also a co-director along with his wife of the Leon & Sylvia Panetta Institute for Public Policy, a non-profit center that seeks to instill in young men and women the virtues and values of public service.

Panetta’s appointment as CIA chief raised concerns because of his lack of intelligence experience but one report describes him as a “Washington heavyweight with political clout to protect and rebuild the CIA.” In fact, recently he was involved in a high-profile verbal tussle with former Vice President Dick Cheney over past practices of the CIA concerning interrogation methods.

According to press reports, the Malacañang meeting dwelt on national security concerns, with National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales assuring Panetta not to worry about the spate of bombings in Mindanao. (I wonder why Gonzales is not worried about the situation in the South. Does he know something we don’t?)

While circumstances now are not the same as in 1985-1986, it is likely that Mr. Panetta came on a similar mission as Sen. Paul Laxalt.

This is my take on the meeting.

After the amenities and briefings were done with, Panetta and Arroyo retired to another room for private talks.

Panetta: President Obama sends his best wishes. He extends an invitation for you to visit Washington. You will be the first leader from Southeast Asia to be so honored. The date has been set for July 30. The President’s schedule is quite full and we hope that you will be able to adjust, considering the short notice. It will be a “no frills” type of visit—an Oval Office meeting and possibly, coffee with Mrs. Obama. Our economy is in bad shape and we are operating under austerity conditions.

Arroyo: I’ll be there.

Panetta: President Obama has also asked me to convey to you his concerns about the future of the Philippines. (Does that sound familiar?) It is important that elections next year push through as scheduled, and we see no need for the imposition of any kind of emergency rule. We are aware of the sudden and unexplained changes in the AFP leadership (a reference to the sacking of Generals Yano and Luna, AFP chief of staff and vice chief of staff, respectively). We hope that the military remains focused on the insurgency and terror threats and not get involved in politics.

Also, Madam President, any changes in the Constitution can wait until after the elections. In the meantime, it is best to observe term limits.

Arroyo: You leave me few options.

Panetta: As someone once said, we should cut, and cut cleanly.

Just as Panetta is about to leave the room, he turns toward Mrs. Arroyo and says: President Obama is concerned about the delicate health of Mr. Arroyo. Perhaps he should stay home.

* * *

My crystal ball shows that presidential elections will push through in May 2010. How credible they will be is another matter. There will be no emergency rule, and no Charter change under the present administration. Both moves will be opposed by civil society organizations supported by significant elements of the Armed Forces.

Beaten, But Unbowed

Press Statement

On July 15, 2009, we received from National Water Resources Board (NWRB) its decision against our official protest over Hedcor’s intent to establish a hydroelectric plant along the Tamugan River in Baguio District.

The NWRB decided against our favor despite our strong objections and those of other concerned sectors who believe in the mighty river as the city’s last remaining source of drinking water. In its 11-page decision, the NWRB concluded that it "hereby renders judgement: 1. "DISMISSING the protest of DCWD on Water Permit Application Nos. 44522, 44523, and X-DAV-2007-10-026 filed by Hedcor Inc. for LACK OF MERIT; and 2. "DECLARING AS NULL AND VOID Water Permit No. 15729 of DCWD without prejudice to re-application by DCWD of water rights over the same source"

We deplore this decision of the NWRB. We are extremely disappointed that it disfavored us and, in effect, the thousands of stakeholders in Davao. We believe that as a resource that is considered the city's only source of clean water in the future, Tamugan River deserves the full protection of the law from unnecessary exploitation by industrial interests.

In spite of these challenges, we remain resolute in our crusade. We are determined to protect Tamugan River from any commercial use by any entity that may likely jeopardize our access to clean water. And we are confident that the people of Davao will continue to appreciate the wisdom of our long term goals, and exercise their right to be involved as vigilant stakeholders.

To everyone, we reiterate our call: Protect Tamugan River ! Ensure our safe and reliable drinking water supply! Oppose all moves to undermine our right to environmental security!

[original signed by DCWD General Manager Rodora Gamboa, and released at a news conference July 17 in Davao City]

Villar-De Castro and Roxas-Puno tandems?

8 July 2009

COMMENTARY
by Perry Diaz

Rumors have been floating around that Sen. Manny Villar and Vice President Noli De Castro have agreed to become running mates in the 2010 presidential election under the Nacionalista Party. Villar will be the presidential candidate and De Castro, his veep. If that’s true, it would be a “marriage of convenience” — a powerful union of two well-respected politicians.

Why would De Castro not run for President himself? After being identified as one of two possible presidential candidates — the other is Gilbert Teodoro — under Gloria’s PALAKA (formally known as Lakas-Kampi-CMD), the most probable reason why De Castro didn’t go with PALAKA was maybe because of fear that Gloria’s anointment would be tantamount to a “kiss of death.” And knowing that no other party would take him as their presidential candidate, a “marriage of convenience” with Villar would be his best option.

There are also rumors that Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas and DILG Secretary Ronaldo Puno have agreed to team up as presidential and vice presidential candidates, respectively, under the Liberal Party. If that’s true, watch out! because Puno’s track — or trick — record of winning presidential campaigns is legendary. Ask Ramos, Estrado and Arroyo. They won’t say “Yes” but Ramos would give you a thumbs-up, Erap would give you the victory sign, and La Gloria would giggle. Body language speaks the truth, right? And that’s probably the only reason why Roxas wanted Puno to be his running mate — better on his side than with the other side.

If both rumors were true, then who would be PALAKA’s standard bearer? Would it be Teodoro? But it looks like he might be dumped by La Gloria for making an indiscreet statement that he would be the first to oppose martial law. As Secretary of Defense, he might be able to prevent it from happening. But after he made his stand against martial law, rumors started to fly that Teodoro would soon be reshuffled as Secretary of Justice. Guess who is being rumored to take over as Secretary of Defense? Gen. Hermogenes Esperon, Jr. (ret.).

Oh, lest I forget, La Gloria appointed Public Works Secretary Gen. Hermogenes Ebdane, Jr. (ret.) as Officer-in-Charge the Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) while Puno is out of the country on medical leave. Puno denied that he is on medical leave saying that he went to the US to attend her daughter’s or son’s — their were conflicting reports — wedding. However, Executive Secretary Gen. Eduardo Ermita (ret.) told reporters that Puno is on “medical leave” and needed some rest. And that’s straight from the horse’s mouth. It was Gen. Ermita who signed both the “medical leave” of Puno and the OIC appointment of Gen. Ebdane.

The question is: Where is Teodoro going in the event he’s dumped by PALAKA? Is he going back his Uncle Danding’s Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC)? He might. But would he be able to position himself as the party’s presidential candidate? What would happen to Francis “Chiz” Escudero who is now the front-runner as NPC’s choice for President? If Teodoro went back to NPC, things would get real ugly.

The next question is: Who would be PALAKA’s standard bearer? It would seem that the only one left standing when the dust settled is Bayani Fernando. And whoever his running mate would be, would be a very weak — unwinnable — ticket. And that would give La Gloria nightmares even during the day.

La Gloria would be so paranoid of losing control of power that she might just bite the bullet and, to heck with it!, declare martial law. And that’s where her retired generals and the Class of ‘78 would come in. And it’s going to be 1972 over again.

In 1970, Marcos had his secret “Omega 5″ which consisted of five generals who planned the martial law of 1972. The well-known “Rolex 12” that became the backbone of the martial law was formed later, an expansion of the original “Omega 5.” I wonder if there would be something similar to “Omega 5” at this time? Something like, say, “Gemini 5″? That has a nice ring to it, isn’t it?

(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)

The beach revelers who don’t see the mega tidal wave about to hit them

AS I WRECK THIS CHAIR
by William M. Esposo
from Philstar

They have been partying late into the night — too engrossed with the lifestyle of the rich and infamous that they have been enjoying since taking to the beach. They had lost sight of the fact that there are bigger realities out there and that the wheel of life can suddenly turn — sans any warning — to transform the joyful to the sorrowful.

Oblivious to the great danger of a 100-foot mega tidal wave threatening them, the beach revelers continued to feast on gourmet food, drink expensive wine and carouse with the finest specimens for personal playmates that their money could buy. When the mega tidal wave finally hits them, there is little doubt if any of them will be around to offer another toast to the lifestyle of the rich and infamous.

Madame Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (GMA), her cronies and kin can be likened to the beach revelers. Drunk with power and given the false feeling of complacency that nothing in the puny and divided Opposition can deter them from continuing their beach party — they have altogether forgotten the realities and lessons of contemporary Philippine history.

Like the beach revelers, instead of planning their transition and developing their exit points — they have foolishly decided to dig in, order more intoxicating wine and indulge in the ultimate Bacchanalia which is to party forever and ever.

Their wine is branded as Cha cha (Charter change). After gaining a reputation for uttering falsehoods and being associated with cheating and other forms of chicanery, they have deluded themselves into thinking that the nation will buy their rationale for offering Cha cha as the means for economic reform.
Many Filipinos may be drowning in poverty but they are not about to take the offer of the Great White Shark for a ride on its back all the way to the shore. Despite their problems in coping with the Information and Education Gaps, the street smart Filipinos realize that the only place they will land if they accept the offer of the Great White Shark is inside the shark’s belly.
Filipinos know only too well that they have never been as miserable as they have been during the last eight years under GMA. In their minds and hearts, Filipinos know that there is no hope of economic salvation under the present dispensation.

Failing to remember the lessons of our experience with Ferdinand Marcos’ imposition of martial law, GMA and her bunch of party revelers lost sight of the fact that the Opposition is not the only stumbling block they must hurdle in order to keep on partying.

They continue to underestimate the pubic discontent which is not easily detected because it has already advanced from dissatisfaction to cynicism. They also pretend that they do not have a rebellious faction in the military waiting for the time to ripen to make their move.

Most of all, they have forgotten that there is a superpower to which our national fortunes are tied — the US. Anyone who reads contemporary Philippine history will know that nothing significant happens in our country without the shadow of the US behind it — nothing.

Typical of the thinking that fails to see beyond their pug noses, GMA and her bunch of power drunk accomplices forgot about the superpower that can easily engineer mega tidal waves which can alter overnight the political landscape of the country.

The beach revelers forgot that it was the US that sponsored our 1972 martial law imposition and it was also the US that played a key role in ending the Marcos dictatorship. They also forgot that when the December 1, 1989 coup was about to topple the Cory Aquino government, it was the US ‘persuasion flights’ that compelled the military rebels to stand-down.

GMA forgot that the approval of then US President Bill Clinton (through a known golf course designer and close Clinton friend) was secured by the real movers of EDSA II before engaging in activities that resulted in the 2001 turnover of presidential power here.

But then, there is a world of difference between GMA and Ferdinand Marcos. Where GMA can only account for a track record of dubious transactions and elections during her eight years as president, Marcos had always displayed a keen appreciation of history which enabled him to save his life and the lives of his family. Marcos knew when it was time to listen to his US sponsors — to cut and cut clean.

Where Marcos knew his limitations and never lost sight of the fact where his point of orbit was in the galaxy of nations, GMA seems over intoxicated with power and has lost track of the geopolitical realities governing our country. She gravitated to China and it does require too much intelligence to fathom how the US feels about that.

Knowing his geopolitical ABCs, Marcos immediately complied with US suggestion that he hold the 1986 Snap Presidential Election in order to diffuse the political fallout created by the August 21, 1983 assassination of Senator Ninoy Aquino. A political genius like Marcos knew that the Snap Election could well be the US plan for a transition from martial law and the return to democracy. But because it was the US that asked for it, Marcos complied.

In his historic inaugural address, US President Barack Obama warned despotic and corrupt regimes that their days were numbered. One would sense that the warning is to be immediately applied to US vassal states like the Philippines.

During his recent Manila visit, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates stated that the US expects the 2010 presidential elections to proceed without a hitch. In her June 12 address to the Filipino people — without even mentioning once the name of GMA — State Secretary Hillary Clinton emphasized the importance of the Philippines as a beacon of democracy in the world.
Those are the President, Defense Secretary and State Secretary of the US stating clearly and without equivocation their commitment to the Filipino people that the US is there to help democracy flourish here. Any one of those three is enough to state US preference or policy in the Philippines. Therefore, you have to be especially inebriated with the wine of power not to hear what all three of them are saying.

Still, GMA and her cohorts think that they can party forever and ever. It is said: “Pride goeth before the fall.” It is also said: “Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.”

* * *

Pinoys puzzled by GMA’s ’secret trip’ to Colombia

by Michaela del Callar
from The Daily Tribune

Eyebrows furrowed at the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) after its officers and staff learned that President Arroyo would make side trip to Colombia before heading for Brazil for a state visit. But no one among them could provide a definite answer on why Mrs. Arroyo squeezed her trip to Colombia in between her state visits to Japan and Brazil.

“There will be no official meetings. This is just a private visit,” a DFA source, who did not want to be identified, told the Tribune without elaborating. Other sources were one in saying that only members of the Arroyo family would join the President during her visit to the coastal city of Cartagena off the Caribbean.

Vera Files, which publishes in-depth reports on various socio-political issues, described Mrs. Arroyo’s trip as “secret” and reported that DFA personnel were taken aback that Malacañang had not disclosed to them the scheduled trip to Cartagena.

According to Vera Files, Philippines has no embassy in Colombia, although Colombia has an honorary consul in the Philippines in the person of former Miss International Stella Marquez-Araneta.

When it asked why the President was traveling to Colombia, Vera Files said a person close to Mrs. Arroyo and whom it did not name answered: “I am asking the same question.”

From Japan, Arroyo was scheduled to fly to San Francisco, California on Saturday for a brief half-a-day stopover before proceeding to Cartagena, Columbia on the same day for the private visit. She will leave Cartagena on Monday for her state visit to Brazil, the sources said.

DFA sources said Mrs. Arroyo declined to be accompanied by her official delegation during the visit to the coastal city of Cartagena off the Carribean.

Vera Files reported that while in Colombia, the First Couple would be the house guests of Jaime Augusto de Zobel and his wife Lizzie. In her first trip to Colombia, Mrs. Arroyo guested the Zobels’ house after she attended the 16th Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ summit in Lima, Peru in November 2008.

This is the second time that Mrs. Arroyo is visiting Colombia while on official trip.

After Colombia, the President will fly to Brazil for a two-day state visit on June 24 and 25 upon the invitation of the Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva.

Her trip to Brazil is the first visit of a Philippine leader to the Latin American state. The highest ranking Philippine official to have visited Brazil was Mrs. Arroyo’s father, late President Diosdado Macapagal, who went to Brazil in 1960 when he was Vice President.

Bilateral trade between the two countries has significantly improved over the last four years. The Philippines has significant investments in Recife, in Swape port, with shipping magnate Enrique Razon as the principal investor.

Brazil is also the Philippines’ second largest trade partner in the Latin American region.

Both countries have also forged a Memorandum of Understanding on the Establishment of Bilateral Consultation Mechanism and the Protocol of Intent on Technical Cooperation in the Area of Agrarian Reform.

The Philippines and Brazil are also considered key movers in other regional fora such as the Forum for East Asia-Latin America Cooperation (FEALAC), of which the two countries are members.

Mrs. Arroyo’s husband, Jose Miguel Arroyo, is traveling with her and this will be the first time (if ever he will be on the plane that will make a stopover in San Francisco, California) he will again set foot in the United States after his aborted trip to Lima, Peru with the president.

Last year, Mr. Arroyo was supposedly part of the Philippine delegation to the APEC leaders’ summit. While they were heading to California for a brief stopover prior to reaching Lima, Peru, Mr. Arroyo reportedly experienced abdominal pains that were later attributed to diarrhea and the presidential plane turned back and landed in Osaka, Japan, from where Mr. Arroyo was flown home to Manila for medical treatment.

Months after the APEC leaders’ summit in Peru, coffee houses buzzed with speculations about Mr. Arroyo’s aborted trip to Peru.

Vera Files said the political opposition hinted that Mr. Arroyo was intentionally avoiding the U.S. because, it said, American authorities had wanted to question him about his supposed investments in a number of giant American investment houses that had collapsed.

Mr. Arroyo, Vera Files, said, has not set foot on U.S. soil since, even for the celebrated boxing matches of Manny Pacquiao, of whom he is one of the top patrons.

Vera Files also recalled a side visit President Arroyo made to Washington D. C. in February. At that time, Mrs. Arroyo was en route to the Middle East but she made the side trip to the US capital to attend the National Breakfast Prayer where U.S. President Barack Obama was a speaker. The DFA, however, was informed of the change in itinerary, Vera Files said.

The other day, Philippine Daily Inquirer columnist Amando Doronila, noting the President’ s frequent overseas trips, said she should start arranging for asylum in safe havens before the storm breaks out in Manila. Arroyo’s term ends in June 2010.

Pamusa’s Case vs. Lucio Tan

by Frank Wenceslao

This column’s readers know the Philippine Anticorruption Movement USA, Inc. (Pamusa) is authorized by the USDOJ to participate in fighting corruption and kleptocracy in support of the enforcement of UNCAC by U.S. laws which has been reinforced by the recent G20 London Summit ending bank secrecy for tax evasion investigation.

Pamusa’s lawyers have gathered sufficient evidence to charge Filipino big fishes starting with Lucio Tan in the United States for corruption, mail or wire fraud, money laundering and racketeering (violation of RICO). Moreover, Tan’s and family members’ U.S. businesses have put themselves under U.S. jurisdiction for violation of the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) and Anti-Trust Laws. For instance, a Tan-owned company and Boeing have conspired in the procurement and leasing of planes including spare parts and support services for Philippine Airlines at questionable transfer pricing that make Tan and family members probably guilty for violating the FCPA and detrimental to American stockholders of PAL’s holding company, Baguio Gold Holdings Corporation.

Pamusa has submitted its evidence to the FBI to investigate Tan. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo could add the government evidence in various cases against Tan which he has danced around for too long. GMA may also prove the seriousness of her anti-graft and corruption program, thus save her presidency from infamy and enshrine a legacy of reforms for our people to perhaps pardon her alleged malfeasances.

We’re also hoping the Moral Force Movement (MFM) would use this case as a launching pad for its mission to combat widespread corruption which is the primary cause of poverty and its debilitating effects. MFM may reinforce Pamusa’s evidence against Tan and build on the credibility of targeting one of the country’s biggest fishes. Tan’s case would reverberate across the nation to warn all involved in graft and corruption to cease and desist in their nefarious activities or be subjected to international condemnation.

Tan and other big fishes have gotten used to being untouchable under Philippine laws. They overlook that the USDOJ has laid the basis for criminal action and forfeiture of assets acquired from “a process or series of actions through which income of illegal origin is concealed, disguised, or made to appear legitimate (main objective); and to evade detection, prosecution, seizure, and taxation.”

By inventorying from dates of organization Tan’s group of companies starting with Fortune Tobacco’s annual reports, income tax declarations, and their personal statements of assets, liabilities and net worth would show the growth of each company’s assets vis-à-vis Tan’s personal net worth of $1.4 billion as of 2008 according to Forbes has been statistically improbable unless the companies resorted to massive tax evasion, bureaucratic corruption and be almost free from competition because of government favors from Marcos and succeeding administrations.

Tan’s and his group of companies’ alleged massive tax evasion was brought to light under President Ramos. Sufficient evidence of corruption and other crimes punishable under U.S. laws can be adduced by the FBI and conclude that much of the companies’ income came from illegal origin. Tan, the companies’ boards of directors and executive officers have evidently engaged in corruption by paying, or promising to pay, bribes, or by giving other undue advantages to public officials and their accomplices which they cannot deny when questioned by the FBI or be guilty of perjury.

In fairness to Tan, however, he took advantage of the country’s corrupt environment as others have similarly done. He can’t be punished to the exclusion of those equally guilty such as Danding Cojuangco, Henry Sy, Roberto Ongpin and others. They should emulate the Union Bank of Switzerland and Siemens AG and negotiate with the FBI Los Angeles office and USDOJ before they’re charged in court.

They may return to RP government Marcos’ ill-gotten wealth and accruals kept by them including ill-gotten gains from corruption during succeeding administrations. These can be reasonably accounted for and perhaps converted into preferred shares of their companies so they continue management control while freeing themselves, their heirs and successors from criminal and civil liabilities.

It’s a fact that when amicable settlement is approved by a U.S. court, the records are shielded from the public and can’t be used for any other legal action. It’s impossible to convict someone for graft and corruption or plunder in the Philippines after the evidence is sealed by a U.S. court.

Tan’s incredible story started with the family-owned Fortune Tobacco. To his credit, Tan was chosen by Marcos to be one of his cronies granted government favors that led to his building a business empire including Asia Brewery (which would not have been possible had Marcos known San Miguel Corp. would one day be under Danding Cojuangco), Allied Banking Corporation, Foremost Farms, Eton Properties, Himmel Industries, Tanduay Distillers and other subsidiaries.
Tan can’t deny he and other cronies were required by Marcos to cede 60% of the equity of each company granted favors such as unlimited dollars for imported needs, PNB and DBP loans, no bureaucratic meddling that allowed Fortune Tobacco to allegedly print multiple same-numbered revenue stamps to minimize tax on cigarettes, etc.

Tan added PAL and Philippine National Bank obviously from the income of the earlier companies. By monopolizing inter-company businesses with Tan-owned firms such as exclusive caterer for PAL passengers, conduit in purchasing and leasing planes including parts and services for PAL, banking transactions confined to PNB, its foreign subsidiaries and Oceanic Bank in which Allied Bank has significant stake, Tan with the board of directors and executive officers of the companies involved have crossed the line of U.S. legal business practices.

Tan’s net worth of $1.4 billion makes him the second richest Filipino with likely investments in China which may have exposed him to the latter’s anticorruption laws which can be pursued by USDOJ that could lead to far worse retribution.
(fcwenceslao1034@hotmail.com)

Start getting out of the rat race via the internet.

The Manila & Cebu Manila Internet (14 hours hands on) Marketing Workshop
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When: June 12-13 (Cebu), June 26-27,2009 (Manila), 10:30am - 5:30pm, Friday/Saturday
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Venue: SM City Cebu / Cubao, Metro Manila

Survival of the Cheatest

PerryScope
By Perry Diaz

With President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s approval ratings plummeting like balls of fire into the Pacific Ocean, presidential wannabes are sprinting to the starting line of the 2010 presidential derby. Assuming that Gloria is not going to declare martial law -- which a lot of people say she might -- it’s going to be rough and tumble politics in a crowded field.

Election cheating has been around since the Philippines adapted the democratic system of government after gaining independence from Uncle Sam in 1946. In my column, “It’s ‘Open Season’ Again” (January 26, 2007), I said: “I remember in the 1950’s, the term ‘flying voter’ became the buzzword during elections. A ‘flying voter’ is a person who has the ability to ‘fly’ -- like a bird -- from one precinct to another to vote for the same candidate; thus, giving the candidate a numerical edge over his opponent. Mathematically, whoever has the most ‘flying voters’ would have a better chance of winning.”

In some instances, candidates provide some sort of “home service,” that is, they would send someone to your house and have you fill out the ballot in favor of their candidates. In some cases, ballot boxes were hijacked and replaced with ballot boxes containing ballots favoring certain candidates. And in other cases, particularly in remote barrios, armed goons were used to intimidate the voters to vote for their candidates. It was not uncommon for a precinct to show 100% vote for a certain candidate. Another method used was vote-buying. The poor were always fair game. The three G’s -- guns, goons and gold -- were the most effective way to win an election. As someone once said, “There were no losers in an election, only the winners and those who were cheated.”

After the People Power Revolution of 1986, a new system of election cheating evolved. Known as “dagdag-bawas” -- add and subtract -- it involves a cunning method of tallying the votes by adding a number of votes to a candidate and subtracting the exact number of votes from his or her opponent. However, this kind of cheating involves the collusion of Commission on Elections (COMELEC) officials.

During the presidential elections in 2004, the celebrated “Hello Garci” election cheating was exposed. It was alleged that the taped wiretapped conversations between President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and COMELEC official Virgilio “Garci” Garcillano were proof that fraud was committed to rig the election results in favor of Gloria’s reelection.

Impeachment was filed in Congress against Gloria. However, Gloria survived the impeachment. But the “Hello Garci” scandal cracked COMELEC’s façade as an independent government body.

It was also during the 2004 elections that another scandal surfaced -- the P1.7 billion bidding scam of the Automated Election System (AES) awarded to Mega Pacific Consortium. It was alleged that three COMELEC officials -- then Chairman Benjamin Abalos and members Florentino Tuazon and Resurreccion Borra -- were involved in the anomaly. Corruption charges were filed against them in the Ombudsman’s Office but the Ombudsman, to date, has not made any progress in its investigation. However, the Supreme Court ruled the contract null and void due to irregularities in the bidding process.

This year, COMELEC is once again pursuing the automation project. However, with the 2010 elections just a year away, COMELEC has yet to award the whopping P11.3 billion AES contract. Recently, the bidding process hit a snag when the seven consortiums vying for the contract failed the eligibility requirements. I wonder what the “eligibility requirements” included? A “padrino” perhaps?

According to Rick Bahague, the National Coordinator of the Computer Professionals’ Union (CPU), “The initial result of CPU’s investigation in the bidding process of COMELEC revealed that the COMELEC is dealing with questionable and unreliable vendors.” He said, “The COMELEC is even more subjected to a triple degree of difficulty to win the trust of Filipino people especially on its effort to automate the national election in 2010.”

But COMELEC officials said that the situation is not hopeless and that a contract could be negotiated with a provider as a “last recourse” to install 80,000 automation machines in time for the 2010 elections.

And this is where the problems would begin. First, a “negotiated contract” implies a “sole bid process” in which only one bidder is selected. This reminds me of the controversial ZTE-NBN contract exposed by Jun Lozada. A “negotiated contract” circumvents the competitive “multiple bid process” in which two or more bidders would compete for the contract primarily based on a low-bid rule. And since there is no competition, a “negotiated contract” is vulnerable to overbidding. Oftentimes overbidding is done in order to accommodate under-the-table commissions -- or “tongpats” -- to influence peddlers and corrupt government officials. In the end, the “negotiated contract” could increase the contract amount to as much as twice its cost.

The second -- and more serious -- problem would be the integrity and accuracy of AES. In a press release issued by CPU, it says: “Cheating and fraud in the 2010 election will be swift and simple for the likes of ‘Garci’ through the automated election system (AES) the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) is striving to implement. In 2010, ‘Garci’ will return and will be more sophisticated in his cheating schemes with his expertise in computer technology. ‘Garci’ will operate far better than the fraud he performed last 2004 national election.”

Indeed, if AES is going to be hastily implemented in 2010, an electronic “dagdag-bawas” cheating scheme which might have been surreptitiously programmed in the system will virtually be impossible to detect. There would not be enough time to fully test the system and incorporate all the necessary verification and security routines in the system to ensure that data integrity is maintained. As computer professionals would say, “Garbage In, Garbage Out,” the system is only as good as the input. It is said that most computer systems work, it’s people who don’t make them work. And that is the danger of a computer system that doesn’t have all the bells and whistles installed to prevent it from being tampered.

If COMELEC pushes through with AES in 2010, the next President may not necessarily be the fittest, but the cheatest. Indeed, the 2010 elections could very well be the survival of the cheatest.

(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)

Start getting out of the rat race via the internet.

The Manila & Cebu Manila Internet (14 hours hands on) Marketing Workshop
Resource speaker: Jomar Hilario (http://www.jomarhilario.com)
When: June 12-13 (Cebu), June 26-27,2009 (Manila), 10:30am - 5:30pm, Friday/Saturday
Contact: cebuworkshop@gmail.com / manilaworkshop@gmail.com
Venue: SM City Cebu / Cubao, Metro Manila